Which Rule 5 Picks Have the Best Chance To Stick on Their New Team’s Roster? Part 2

Which of these Rule 5 picks will find a way to stick with their new team throughout the 2025 season?

Evan Reifert of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Minnesota Twins.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - MARCH 16, 2024: Evan Reifert #48 of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Minnesota Twins at Hammond Stadium on March 16, 2024 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

Yesterday, I wrote about some of this winter’s Rule 5 draft picks who have a strong chance to stick with their new team throughout the 2025 season.

Here’s a quick refresher on the basic details of the Rule 5 process:

In order to hold onto their Rule 5 draft pick(s), a team must keep the player(s) on their active roster for the entirety of the upcoming season. If a drafting team wishes to remove a draftee from their 26-man roster at any point during the 2025 campaign, they must first pass him through waivers. If he clears, they must offer him back to his original club for only half the fee they initially paid.

As I outlined in my previous piece, many Rule 5 picks are ultimately offered back to their original teams, but it’s a safe bet that at least some selections will survive the entire 2025 season with their new club.

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The players I wrote about yesterday were the ones I thought had the best chances to stick with their new teams. Today, we’ll look at some more potential Rule 5 success stories.

Complete List of Rule 5 Draft Picks

Potential Rule 5 Success Stories

Mike Vasil

  • Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • Date of Birth: 3/19/2000 (24)
  • Former Team: New York Mets (briefly Philadelphia Phillies)
  • New Team: Tampa Bay Rays

You might think the Rays would love the Rule 5 draft, but historically speaking, that couldn’t be farther from the truth.

Before this year, they had not made a Rule 5 pick since 2016. Before that, they hadn’t made a pick since 2010. And believe it or not, the Rays have never kept one of their own Rule 5 draft picks on their roster for an entire season.

However, the Rays have been the beneficiary of one of the better Rule 5 picks in recent memory: Kevin Kelly. The Rockies selected the right-handed two years ago and traded him to the Rays shortly thereafter.

Over the past two years, Kelly has a 2.88 ERA in 125 games and leads Rays relievers in innings pitched and FanGraphs WAR.

So, you can understand why the Rays might have a newfound interest in the Rule 5 draft. Indeed, in addition to selecting left-hander Nate Lavender, they arranged a trade with the Phillies for right-hander Mike Vasil.

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The fact that the Rays went through the effort to arrange a trade for a Rule 5 pick, even though they already had one of their own, suggests they really like what they see in Vasil.

The righty hasn’t had a ton of success thus far at Triple-A (5.78 ERA, 5.42 FIP in 207 IP), but Baseball America has described him as a “high-probability” back-end starter thanks to his deep arsenal and solid command.

Meanwhile, Rays assistant general manager Kevin Ibach had this to say about Vasil’s future with the club: “You can never have too much pitching. Not sure what’s going to happen between now and when the players report to Port Charlotte, so there might be some opportunity that doesn’t exist today for someone like Vasil to come in and take the bull by the horns.”

All of this makes me think the Rays see Vasil as depth for their starting rotation. So, if everyone is healthy come Opening Day, there’s a good chance Vasil is headed back to the Mets.

Yet, a couple of injuries could open a spot for him in the rotation. Alternatively, the Rays could keep him around as a long-man in the bullpen in case they’re worried about injuries popping up mid-season.

If that’s the case, and Vasil makes the Opening Day roster, he will still have to pitch well enough to keep his spot. The Rays have enough depth that they won’t need to rely on him if he isn’t getting the job done.

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Simply put, this isn’t a team like the White Sox or the A’s that can stash Vasil at the bottom of the bullpen depth chart just to keep him around. Every roster spot is valuable on a contending team, and the Rays know that better than anyone.

Evan Reifert

  • Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • Date of Birth: 5/14/1999 (25)
  • Former Team: Tampa Bay Rays
  • New Team: Washington Nationals

The Nationals should give Reifert every opportunity to stick around in their bullpen this season. They’re not in the same position as the White Sox, where they could afford to keep him around no matter how badly he struggles, but their bullpen isn’t so deep that they can’t give him a nice long look.

Although he lacks experience for a pitcher his age – he’ll be 26 in May, and he’s never pitched above Double-A – Reifert’s upside is high. In 41.1 IP at Double-A last year, he pitched to a 1.96 ERA and 2.34 FIP, thanks in large part to a 40.4% strikeout rate.

He shouldn’t be pitching high-leverage innings until he proves he can rein in his control (career 14.0% walk rate in the minors), but if his slider can trick MLB hitters even half as well as it fooled his competition at Double-A, he can stick in a big league bullpen.

Here’s what Aram Leighton and Jack McMullen wrote about Reifert prior to the draft:

Put simply, Reifert has one of the best sliders in Minor League Baseball. Since the start of the 2022 season, opponents are 14-for-183 (.077 batting average) against the pitch with a 67% strikeout rate. Reifert’s unique arm action really helps the pitch play up, almost throwing it like a football, generating slurvy action that darts what seems like as late as possible.

Reifert made progress with his fastball, leaning into a sinker that he commanded much better than he had historically managed his four-seamer while still mixing in the four-seamer to buzz the top. After an injury wiped out his 2023 season, Reifert recorded his highest innings total since his first full pro season in 2021. His slider would immediately be a wipeout big league pitch.

Eiberson Castellano

  • Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • Date of Birth: 5/9/2001 (23)
  • Former Team: Philadelphia Phillies
  • New Team: Minnesota Twins

Castellano is coming off a strong season split between High-A and Double-A. In 22 games (20 starts), he pitched to a 3.99 ERA and 3.40 FIP. He struck out 31.3% of batters he faced while walking only 6.7%.

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Most evaluators agree he isn’t quite as promising as his 2024 stats would make you think, but his blend of stuff and control with a deep arsenal makes him a good candidate to eat major league innings in 2024, either as a no. 5 starter or long-man in the bullpen.

Ultimately, however, his chances of sticking around have as much to do with his personal performance as they do with Minnesota’s. The worse the Twins play, the more incentive they’ll have to keep him around for the future.

Here’s what Aram and Jack had to say about Castellanos in December:

Castellano made a leap command wise in 2024, nearly cutting his walk rate in half while upping his strikeout rate by nearly 7%. Unsurprisingly, that resulted in Castellano’s best professional season, holding his strong results at the Double-A level.

With a four-pitch mix, Castellano boasts a pair of impressive secondaries including a mid-80s changeup and a slurvy curveball in the low 80s. Opponents hit a combined .150 against the two offerings with a swinging strike rate of 19%.

Castellano’s fastballs sit in the mid 90s, though his four-seam shape is inconsistent, sometimes boasting good ride at the top and other times looking like a hybrid between his four-seamer and sinker which flirts with the dead zone.

Much more willing to run the sinker in on the hands of righties, Castellano gives same-handed hitters more to think about while he only goes to the four-seamer against LHP. Righties hit just .240 against his heater while lefties posted a batting average north of .400. Castellano offsets the wide splits in fastball performance with the aforementioned two secondaries being used at nearly a 60% clip, hedging lefties to a .740 OPS overall versus a .565 OPS vs. righties.

Though he cut the walk rate significantly, Castellano’s long arm action still results in a few too many non-competitive pitches and some inconsistencies shape wise. The 23-year-old’s dominance against righties makes the relief side of things an easy fallback, but his 2024 campaign injected optimism into his outlook as a starter.

Juan Nuñez

  • Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • Former Team: Baltimore Orioles
  • New Team: San Diego Padres

Nuñez was arguably the most promising prospect selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft. MLB Pipeline currently has him as the no. 11 prospect in San Diego’s system, with an overall 45 FV. However, he lacks professional experience and has never pitched about High-A.

In other words, he’s the kind of player who probably won’t contribute much in 2025, but his arm has so much potential that the Padres should do everything they can (short of blowing their playoff chances) to keep him in brown and gold.

Alternatively, the Padres could consider trading Nuñez to a less competitive team. That would allow them to capitalize on his value without sacrificing a roster spot to an inexperienced arm as they try to compete for a postseason berth.

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Connor Thomas

  • Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • Date of Birth: 5/29/1998 (26)
  • Former Team: St. Louis Cardinals
  • New Team: Milwaukee Brewers

Thomas took a nice step forward in 2024 in his first year as a primary reliever, pitching to a 2.89 ERA and 3.87 FIP in 90.1 innings at Triple-A. That’s a promising improvement from his 5.49 ERA and 4.55 FIP the two years prior.

Equally promising is the fact that the Brewers saw something they liked in the southpaw. After all, Milwaukee has a strong reputation for getting the best results out of unheralded arms.

With that said, the Brewers have plenty of bullpen depth to work with – and they’ll probably pull a few more capable arms out of thin air sometime between now and Opening Day.

Thomas has the command to survive in the majors, especially with Milwaukee’s strong defense behind him. But if the Brewers don’t see him as one of their top eight bullpen options, they’re not going to give him a spot on the Opening Day roster.