Top 10 Remaining Free Agents Ranked By 2026 Salary Predictions

The last time I updated this article was in the middle of January, when we still had a decent crop of free agents left, where we were able to rank and predict contracts for a top 20 list.

One by one, the top names started to come off the board, from Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, and Cody Bellinger at the top of our rankings, to solid vets off the bottom like Austin Hays and Seranthony Dominguez (both of whom signed with the White Sox).

All told, eight free agents were signed, bringing us to a total of 12 free agents left for whom I have previously made a contract prediction. Today, we are going to update this post one last time, with refreshed contract and team predictions for the remaining top names on the market.

Zac Gallen is far and away the best players left unsigned, with those being the only two free agents who were even ranked in our initial top 20 free agents from the start of the offseason.

Beyond Gallen, you will find plenty of the other top free agent starting pitchers who are left on the market rounding out this list, as this is really the only segment of the free agent market where you can still find a handful of impact contributors.

The market has thinned greatly in terms of impact bats after last night’s signing of Eugenio Suarez to the Cincinnati Red Sox.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Dominguez signing took the last premium reliever off the board. As he is likely going to be the final reliever this offseason to sign a deal that stretches to eight figures.

To add a little fun spin to our final update of this post, I am going to re-rank this list in order of who will make the most money in 2026. At this stage in the game, most free agents are only getting one-year deals at this point anyway, so this will be a fun way to rank the value left on the market.

If you want to look back at any of the previous contract predictions I have made, scroll through to the bottom of the post, and we still have kept all the past write-ups on the guys who have already signed.

* indicates a free agent has been tagged with the qualifying offer

Top 10 Remaining MLB Free Agents

1. Zac Gallen, SP * Signed a One-year, $22.025 million deal ($14.025 million deferred) with the D-backs

Age in 2026: 30

• 2025 Stats: 33 GS, 192 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.20 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $54 million deal (AAV: $27M), opt-out after 2026
• Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

For this one, I am leaving the writing from my original prediction because it pretty much forecasts exactly where we are with Zac Gallen.

Scott Boras has seemingly overplayed his hand with Gallen, at least that is if they ever expected to sign a long-term deal. I always thought it would be a two-year pillow contract for Gallen, and I still think that is where it ultimately lands.

My initial prediction for Gallen is that he would sign with the Cubs, which was right for about 45 seconds at the beginning of December.

UPDATE: The Chicago Cubs are HOPEFUL of finalizing an agreement with free-agent starter Zac Gallen on a multi-year deal, but the deal is NOT DONE with others still in contention. Gallen, with three top-10 Cy Young finishes, has averaged 32 starts a year for the past 4 seasons.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 6, 2025

My next prediction was for the Orioles to step up and sign Gallen instead. Either team is a conceivable landing spot still, but similar to my take on Valdez, I wonder if the Diamondbacks ever get back in the race here on their former ace.

The D-backs already brought back Merrill Kelly after trading him away at the deadline. Why not just get the band back together?

Especially when the rest of the band is Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt, with newcomer Michael Soroka being the only true addition compared to last year.

Original Prediction:

Zac Gallen has a lot of things in common with Dylan Cease. Both have finished on the podium for a Cy Young, but have never won. Both are entering their age-30 season, coming off years of being productive and durable frontline starters. They also share an agent in Scott Boras.

Considering how similar they are, you may be shocked to see the difference between projecting Cease at over $200 million and Gallen at barely over $50 million. What I am predicting here is how the market is going to respond to Boras’ top two free agent starting pitchers.

I feel like teams are going to be bullish on Cease, as he is the more electric of the two arms, giving him a more enticing ceiling to bet on. When Boras asks for ace money for Cease, teams may hardly blink because every pitching coach thinks they can make Cease a Cy Young.

Cease’s underlying metrics support that notion, as his expected ERA of 3.46 was a full run better than his 4.55 ERA. Considering the fact that we have already seen Cease bounce back from a similar sub-par 2023 season, only to post a 3.47 ERA in 2024, many will still pay him like an ace.

With Zac Gallen, I am not as sure.

My prediction here is that Boras overplays his hand with Gallen and is left holding the bag late into the winter. I borrowed from his contract for Pete Alonso last year to find a structure that makes sense for Gallen. A two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out of the second year.

This is the patented Boras pillow contract, allowing free agents to sign a 1+1 where they look to have a big year to test the market again, but have a fallback in case of injury or lack of performance with the player option.

In this instance, like Alonso, Gallen could sign a deal that pays him $30 million for the upcoming season, with a $24 million player option for 2027 acting as insurance.

The Cubs could certainly use another pitcher to slot into their rotation, and getting a right-handed arm would be a big help to an already lefty-heavy staff.

For more information on Zac Gallen’s free agency and potential landing spots:

2. Lucas Giolito, SP

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 26 GS, 145 IP, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 7.51 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $32 million
• Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

There was a point this past season where Lucas Giolito looked like he was heading towards a nice little payday, as he posted a strong bounce-back season in his first year off of Tommy John. Giolito was a fixture in the Red Sox rotation, pitching to a sub-3.50 ERA in over 140 innings pitched.

Unfortunately, Giolito went down at the end of the season due to late-season elbow soreness, which casts a cloud over his free agency. Reports suggest Giolito is healthy and having a normal offseason, but the late injury is sure to limit him to a short-term deal.

Still, with Merrill Kelly already signed, Giolito now becomes the top free agent starting pitcher without a qualifying offer, which could make him a bit more attractive to a team that is looking to retain all of its draft capital.

The Giants are not expected to pay at the top of the free agent market to add to their rotation, but they need some help in the middle of that rotation behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. Giolito can slot in and cover some key innings for the Giants, and they won’t have to break the bank to sign him.

3. Chris Bassitt, SP – Signed a one-year, $18.5 million deal with the Orioles

• Age in 2026: 37
• 2025 Stats: 32 G, 31 GS, 170.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 8.77 K/9
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $16 million
• Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

It is pretty hard to pick just one landing spot for Chris Bassitt. This is a guy who really fits on every team in Major League Baseball. If you are a rebuilding team looking for a veteran leader to bring up a young rotation. Enter Chris Bassitt.

Contending teams can use Bassitt, as he was a huge part of a Blue Jays team that came a few outs away from winning the World Series this year.

Bassitt not only made all of his starts and gave Toronto 170 1/3 innings of good regular-season work, but he also transitioned seamlessly into a bullpen role.

After being left off the playoff roster until the ALCS, Bassitt emerged as a weapon out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, allowing just three hits and one run across 8 2/3 innings pitched. Bassitt even struck out 10 batters compared to issuing only two walks.

The playoff performance for Bassitt shows that he can become a valued swingman for a contending team as well, able to fill a variety of roles depending on your roster situation.

Again, pick any team, and you can make a case for signing Bassitt, but our landing spot choice is the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers could use someone who takes the ball every fifth day, as there is a lot of uncertainty beyond Tarik Skubal in that rotation.

Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson provide some solid options with upside, but a floor that is awfully concerning if the time is now to win it all with Skubal.

Bassitt would be the perfect fit, giving the Tigers a valued innings-eater who will be good in the clubhouse as well. As long as a few teams get in on the bidding, it is fair to expect Bassitt to clear $15 million on a one-year deal, as Merrill Kelly just signed a two-year, $40 million deal this winter.

4. Zack Littell

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 Stats: 32 GS, 186.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 6.27 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $24 million
• Team Prediction: Athletics

Hitting the market about to enter his age-30 season, and with no qualifying offer attached, Zack Littell is probably one of the more highly coveted free agents left on the market.

Sure, his presence in the top five may be a testament to the point we have reached in free agency, but that does not make the innings he can provide any less valuable.

In a year spent between two teams in hitter-friendly ballparks, Littell managed to maintain a solid 3.81 ERA, despite an inflated 1.74 HR/9 rate that was nearly half a home run higher than the mark he posted in 2024 when the Rays were still in the Trop.

Littell ate up 186 2/3 innings across 32 starts, making him one of 13 starting pitchers to clear 185 innings pitched, and one of 22 to make 32 starts.

While he is not the flashiest pitcher left in free agency, Littell might be the best bet for a team that is looking for a consistent back-of-the-rotation starter.

Littell may struggle to find a multi-year deal this late in free agency, but if there was a team that should offer one to him, it’s the Athletics. The A’s have built a lineup that can contend, but they are really short on quality starting pitching.

The A’s just need some arms who can take the ball 32 times. And with Littell, they are getting one who has the experience of pitching in a minor league ballpark to draw on, making him the ideal fit.

5. Marcell Ozuna, DH – One-year, $12 million with the Pirates

• Age in 2026: 35
• 2025 Stats: 145 G, .232/.355/.400, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 114 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $12 million
• Team Prediction: Washington Nationals

Another player we have made a prediction for on a different series that I am going to steal for this exercise. In this case, I am cheating off my own paper, as it was in my NL East predictions piece where I had the Nationals signing Marcell Ozuna on a one-year deal.

Ozuna would give James Wood some much-needed protection in the lineup for the first half of the season, and the Nationals can give Ozuna at-bats. If Ozuna hits the way he did back in 2024, you are sitting on a great trade chip.

If not, Ozuna can always get relegated to the bench when you have a younger player who is vying for some at-bats late in the season if things don’t work out. This is a low-risk, high-upside move that any team could make if they have at-bats open at DH.

With Eugenio Suarez setting a bit of a market at one-year, $15 million, Ozuna should be able to get in spitting distance of that based on his long track record of success as a DH.

6. Nick Martinez, SP/RP – Signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Rays

• Age in 2026: 35
• 2025 Stats: 40 G, 26 GS, 165.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.30 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $20 million
• Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Everything we just said about Bassitt applies to Nick Martinez. He’s two years younger, but is also coming off a slightly worse season. Martinez has played the swingman role for years now, and few have done it better.

Pitching on the qualifying offer, Martinez made 26 starts and 14 appearances out of the bullpen, reaching 40+ games for the fourth-straight season. Martinez continues to get outs and should have no trouble finding a nice deal out on the market.

If he signs a one-year deal, expect Martinez to cash in on a number similar to what we predicted for Bassitt. Somewhere in the $12-15 million range. Instead, for our prediction, we went with Martinez getting a two-year deal, signing with the Baltimore Orioles for $20 million.

When it comes to the team fit, I have to admit I stole the idea from our playing GM series on the Baltimore Orioles, where the prediction was that he signs for $10 million on a one-year deal.

Personally, I think Martinez does better than that on this market, either on a one-year deal, or by getting a team to commit to a second-year, or at least add a second-year mutual option with a buyout.

7. Jose Quintana – Signed a one-year, $6 million deal

• Age in 2026: 37
• 2025 Stats: 24 GS, 131.2 P, 3.96 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 6.08 K/9
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $6.5 million
• Team Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

Look at me, bringing the 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates back together. Miguel Andujar was a late-season waiver claim by the Pirates back in 2022, which is the same year that Jose Quintana had a career renaissance in Pittsburgh.

By the time Andujar came to the Pirates, Quintana was long gone, having been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for a playoff push. Across the two stops, Quintana pitched to a 2.93 ERA, which eventually earned him a two-year, $26 million deal with the Mets.

Quintana would miss roughly two-thirds of his first season with the Mets, but came off the IL and made 13 strong starts in 2023 (3.57 ERA), before turning in all 31 in 2024, pitching to a 3.75 ERA.

The ageless southpaw continued to get the job done in 2025, pitching to a 3.96 ERA across 24 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers. Similar to last offseason, Quintana is looking at a potential late signing, which could once again impact what he commands in free agency.

Last year, Quintana had to settle for a $4.25 million contract with the Brewers, which ended up being an absolute bargain for Milwaukee. Sometimes players can price themselves out of a certain range when they accept a contract like that, but Quintana deserves to make more in 2026.

The Pirates traded one of their back-end starters in Mike Burrows to land Brandon Lowe, and now they could use an arm to fortify the back-end of the rotation.

Worst-case scenario, Quintana becomes a trade chip at the deadline. Best case, he provides some veteran leadership to a budding rotation that has the chance to make a run this year.

8. Justin Verlander – Signed a one-year, $13 million deal ($11 million deferred)

• Age in 2026: 43
• 2025 Stats: 29 GS, 152 IP, 3.85 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 8.11 K/9
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $12 million ($6 million deferred)
• Team Prediction: Houston Astros

Everyone loves a good reunion. Carlos Correa is already back in town. Why not bring back the old horse for another shot at the rodeo?

Justin Verlander managed to make 29 starts and pitch 152 innings at 42 years old last year. He has long said he wants to pitch until he is 45, and there are some big milestones he wants to chase along the way.

With all due respect to the 2025 San Francisco Giants, it is a shame that Verlander pitched to a 3.85 ERA over 150+ innings and managed just four wins. Verlander may be the last pitcher who ever has a shot at getting to 300 wins, needing 34 more to join that elusive club.

Considering the fact that he has won just nine games over the last two years and 22 over the last three, it is unlikely that Verlander gets there, but one good season can change everything.

While a return to Detroit to pitch with Tarik Skubal would be fun, I much prefer the idea of Verlander on some renegade Astros team where he finds his way to 16 wins against all odds and puts 300 back in play with a few years left.

This contract may check in a bit higher in present-day value than some of the other free agents listed ahead of Verlander, but we are deferring half of it, so he technically only makes $6 million in 2026. Verlander’s name will give him a bump in salary, but his value at 43 may not be too high.

Think J.D. Martinez’s one-year, $12 million contract with the Mets for 2024, which had $7.5 million deferred.

9. Max Scherzer

• Age in 2026: 41
• 2025 Stats: 17 GS, 85 IP, 5.19 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 8.68 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Unsigned
• Team Prediction: Best Contender That Needs an Arm in July

Max Scherzer has already started to publicly float the idea that he might not sign with a team before the start of spring training.

Looks like he may be taking a page out of David Robertson’s recently retired playbook, where he will rest at home for the first few months of the season, then start to ramp himself up mid-season to become a pseudo trade deadline acquisition.

Unlike Verlander, Scherzer really doesn’t have much left to pitch for. He is 11 strikeouts away from 3,500, which is a club that only has 10 members. The list is eight Hall of Famers, Verlander and Roger Clemens.

Outside of that, Scherzer finds himself 79 wins away from 300, without much else to polish off his first-ballot Hall of Fame resume.

For Scherzer, it makes the most sense to get the body right, watch the league and see how things are playing out, then identify the perfect interested landing spot to latch on and try to win one last ring on the way out. Along the way, he can pick up his 3,500-strikeout club membership.

10. Paul Goldschmidt – Signed a One-year, $4 million deal with the Yankees

• Age in 2026: 38
• 2025 Stats: 146 G, .274/.328/.403, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 103 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $5 million
• Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks or the New York Yankees

We might as well talk about the last notable star player on the market, albeit one that is no longer the everyday stalwart we have come to love for the past decade-plus.

Instead, Goldy has hit the Albert Pujols portion of his career, where you are basically looking at a one-trick pony with that trick being mashing left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt had drastic splits last year, with a .619 OPS vs. righties and a .981 OPS vs. southpaws.

While the Yankees should prioritize keeping Ben Rice’s bat in the lineup, there are likely going to be stretches where Giancarlo Stanton is unavailable to DH, or the Yankees can even put Rice behind the dish on occasion to get both in the lineup.

The Yankees are already running it back, so they make sense to do so with Goldy too.

Another team to mention here is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have Pavin Smith in line to play first base, but he has been injury-prone in the past and bats left-handed. Adrian Del Castillo is currently listed as their DH, giving the D-backs another spot where they can form a platoon with Goldschmidt.

Playing back in his old haunts would have been attractive in and of itself, but now that Nolan Arenado is manning the other corner, it feels like even more of a no-brainer to get this thing done.

Past Predictions on Top Free Agents Who Have Now Signed

Framber Valdez, SP * – Signed a Three-year, $115 Million Deal with the Tigers

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 31 GS, 192 P, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 8.77 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $96 million deal (AAV: $32M) with BAL, or One-year, $23 million with HOU
• Team Prediction: Houston Astros or the Baltimore Orioles

My original prediction for Framber Valdez was that he was going to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays because my gut told me they would aggressively pursue a top starter. They did in fact pursue a top starter, it was just Dylan Cease, not Framber Valdez.

My next prediction was that Framber would sign with the New York Mets, but that was before they gave Bo Bichette $126 million over three years, and before they traded for Freddy Peralta. 0-for-2.

At this point, I (like most in the general public) have no idea what is going on with Framber Valdez.

Was that a $150 million “cross-up” with his catcher, costing him a deal like the $210 million that went to Cease?

Could Framber really end up signing a one or two-year deal despite turning in five remarkably consistent seasons in a row prior to hitting free agency?

At this point, Valdez’s only public suitor is the Baltimore Orioles, who may not want to bid against themselves on a guy who is being perceived as a clubhouse problem, but more importantly, who is 32 years old with a qualifying offer attached.

Personally, I think Framber is a bulldog on the mound that would make the front of any rotation better, but teams don’t often extend $100+ million deals in February.

If the Orioles don’t pony up to pay Valdez top dollar, part of me wonders if there is a world where the Astros get back in the mix. The Astros are hesitant to go into the tax, but they also still have a few trade chips they could move with Isaac Paredes and Jesus Sanchez.

Trading both bats could clear up over $16 million, depending on who they got back in return. The Astros could also move some of Valdez’s one-year guarantee to 2026 by giving him a buyout on a mutual option for 2027.

Regardless, the Astros are the only team that does not have to forfeit draft capital to sign Framber Valdez and the rotation would look a lot better with him back in it.

The Orioles still feel like the likely pick, but if there is a surprise team to make a late entry, don’t count out Jim Crane and the Houston Astros.

8. Miguel Andujar, 1B/3B/OF – Signed a One-Year, $4 million deal with the Padres

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 94 G, .318/.352/.470, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 125 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $14 million
• Team Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been aggressive buyers so far this offseason. They have been linked to many top free agent bats this offseason, and were able to reel one in when they signed Ryan O’Hearn on a two-year deal, $29 million deal.

O’Hearn was the follow-up move to trading for Brandon Lowe, as the Pirates have added two big left-handed bats into the middle of their lineup. What they could now use is a right-handed bat. Particularly one who can plug in at third base.

Enter Miguel Andujar.

While he may not bring the intrigue of recently signed Kazuma Okamoto or the excitement of slugger Eugenio Suarez, Andujar would be a great fit for the Pirates to plug in at third base.

The Pirates are familiar with Andujar, as they had him back in 2023. Andujar spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he hit .338/.404/.536, across 103 games, earning 30 games of MLB action where he also found success at the dish (105 wRC+).

Andujar was claimed off waivers by the A’s in the following offseason, spending 75 games in Oakland, where he again proved to be slightly better than league average offensively (103 wRC+).

Then came the 2025 season, where Andujar legitimately raked in the big leagues again and proved to be a difference-maker in the late-season Reds’ lineup that made a push to October.

Andujar hit .359/.400/.544, with a 159 wRC+ across 34 games played for Cincinnati.

Set to enter his age-31 season, there is every chance Andujar has figured something out and he can continue to be a well-above average bat for the next few seasons. Especially when it comes to mashing left-handed pitching.

Andujar would provide an ideal counter to what has become a lefty-heavy lineup.

And while he is not a great defender, Andujar at least provides the versatility to play at all four corner spots (1B, 3B, LF, RF).

Eugenio Suarez, 3B – Signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Reds

• Age in 2026: 34
• 2025 Stats: 159 G, .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBI, 125 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
• Original Contract Prediction: Three-year, $70 million deal (AAV: $23.33M)
  UPDATED Contract Prediction: Two-year, $40 million deal (AAV: $20 million)
  ONE FINAL UPDATED Contract Prediction: One-year, $20 million
• Team Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

New Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners

My last prediction on Eugenio Suarez was that he would reunite with the Arizona Diamondbacks on a two-year deal, but now that Nolan Arenado has been traded to the desert, there is no room for Geno.

Instead, we got him going back to his other old team, signing with the Seattle Mariners.

When the offseason first began, my prediction for Geno was that he would sign a three-year deal for $70 million. Then, in an update, I dropped the salary down to $20 million per over a two-year deal. Finally, I am starting to wonder if Suarez only lands a one-year deal.

Original Prediction:

It is probably unfair to say that Eugenio Suarez’s 2025 season looks better on paper than it does in contract negotiations, but this is the harsh reality of being a trade deadline star.

Suarez was billed as the best bat moved at the trade deadline, as he hit 36 home runs with a 141 wRC+ across 106 games played with the Diamondbacks. Then came the trade back to Seattle, and Suarez managed to his just .189/.255/.428, across 53 games spent with the Mariners.

Geno still blasted 16 home runs for Seattle, with the final three coming in the playoffs. None bigger than in Game 5 of the ALCS, when Suarez hit a go-ahead grand slam that put the Mariners one win away from the World Series.

Unfortunately for Suarez and the Mariners, that would be the last game they won in the 2025 season.

Put it all together, and Suarez hit over 50 home runs in the calendar year of 2025. Teams are going to be after his services on the free agent market, especially with no qualifying offer attached. The only question is how teams will view Suarez as he enters his age-34 season.

Suarez still has a few good years left in him, but not many teams are going to sign up for years past 35 on a free agent contract. If Suarez wants to get what he is worth as a 50-HR bat, it will have to come over a one or two-year deal. In either instance, Suarez could easily clear $25 million per season.

However, if Suarez wants to prioritize the most money he can guarantee and get a third or a fourth year, he is going to have to come down on the AAV. That is where I landed on a $70 million deal, as Suarez would make a shade below $25 million per year to get a third guaranteed year.

There are many teams that could use help at third base, and yet I have Suarez returning to one of his former teams once again.

Right now, Jordan Lawlar is slated to be the D-Backs’ starting third baseman, with Adrian Del Castillo at DH. This team needs a bat, and they already know Suarez fits like a glove. The D-Backs clearly loved Suarez and only traded him because it was the responsible thing to do in a lost season.

Suarez slots right back into the cleanup spot in the D-Backs lineup behind Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. If Jordan Lawlar finally proves he’s ready to handle an everyday MLB role at third base, you can protect your investment in Geno and let him be the DH.

Luis Arraez, DH/1B/2B – Signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the Giants

• Age in 2026: 29
• 2025 Stats: 154 G, .292/.327/.392, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 11 SB, 104 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $20 million
• Team Prediction: Cleveland Guardians
  

The Guardians may not give out a contract to any free agents this offseason, but if they are going to spend, Luis Arraez makes a lot of sense.

The Guardians are always trying to squeeze as much offense as they can around Jose Ramirez. Having two of the best contact-oriented bats in the game with Arraez and Steven Kwan would make the Guardians’ lineup a bit more interesting around J-Ram.

Austin Hays – Signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the White Sox

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 Stats: 103 G, .266/.315/.453, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 105 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $5 million
• Team Prediction: Texas Rangers

Austin Hays is one of the best outfielders left on the market, as he is coming off a strong season where he was a slightly above-average hitter (105 wRC+), popping 15 home runs and driving in 64 in a one-year deal with the Reds.

Hays is a capable outfielder in the corners, is a lefty-masher, coming off a season where he hit .319/.400/.549, with a 155 wRC+.

There are a lot of teams that could use a lefty masher to help form a platoon in a corner, or at DH. That is where the Rangers would likely need Hays, as he could become Joc Pederson’s platoon partner at DH.

With Brandon Nimmo set to play his first season in Texas at 33 years old, it would make sense to have a player who could spare him a bit out in right field, sliding Nimmo to DH some to preserve him throughout the season.

Kyle Tucker, OF * – Signed a Four-year, $240 Million Deal with the Dodgers

• Age in 2026: 29
• 2025 Stats: 136 G, .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 25 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR
• Original Contract Prediction: 10-year, $430 million deal (AAV: $43M)
• Original Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
  
  New Prediction: Kyle Tucker signs a five-year, $250 million contract with the Mets, opt-outs after year two and year four. Deferrals to take present day value down to $225 million
  

There is plenty of speculation surrounding Kyle Tucker’s free agency right now, with news seemingly imminent. The Toronto Blue Jays are still the favorites to land him, as they are the one team that is willing to go long-term on a contract for Tucker, potentially as long as 10 years.

However, the Mets have gotten into the running to sign Tucker, having submitted a very aggressive short-term, high-AAV contract. Reports suggest the Mets have put a contract worth $50 million per year on the table, and they have extended that contract to four years in length.

A four-year, $200 million contract is pretty wild, but that alone might not get a deal done if Tucker has, say, $300 million over 10 years on the table. My prediction is that the Mets will tack on a fifth year to get this done at the 11th hour.

The contract would potentially include deferrals that could take the present-day value of the deal down to $225 million, dropping the AAV for luxury tax purposes down to $45 million per.

Tucker would likely get opt-outs in a short-term deal, but if the Mets commit to four or five years at $50 million per, plus give up the draft compensation and bonus pool money to sign Tucker as a QO tendered free agent, they would likely want the opt-out to take place after the second or third year.

We will give him two opt-outs in this deal. One after year two, and another after year four.

Original Prediction:

The Toronto Blue Jays were inches away from winning a World Series, getting so close to the mountaintop that they could start to taste the champagne before it all got ripped away and the Dodgers celebrated on their field.

Losing in that fashion should force action for the Blue Jays this offseason, especially since they have attempted to play at the very top of the free agent market in the past.

This time around, coming off a season that makes them look like a true destination, I am predicting they will finally land the top free agent available and sign Kyle Tucker.

Imagine a decade of Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting back-to-back in the Blue Jays lineup? That’s is the type of left-right combination that teams dream of having.

Despite a few seasons where he has been hampered by injuries, Tucker is not going to have any problem signing a long-term deal, especially since he hits the market ahead of his age-29 season.

Juan Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million deal prior to his age-26 season, so it is conceivable that Tucker could even find himself getting a deal that spans beyond the 10 years I am projecting.

Tucker is not nearly the same hitter as Soto, but he is a far better fielder, making him an all-around more complete player.

The Soto bidding war may not happen here for Tucker, so clearing $50 million in AAV may be too steep an ask, but clearing $40 million per season should be well within reach.

All it takes is a few teams who are motivated to make Tucker their absolute top priority this winter, and things can very quickly escalate to, and past, $400 million on a 10-year deal.

Bo Bichette, SS * Signed a Three-year, $126 Million Deal with the Mets

• Age in 2026: 28
• 2025 Stats: 139 G, .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 134 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Eight-year, $208 million deal (AAV: $26M)
• Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

New Prediction: Bo Bichette signs nine-year, $225 million deal (AAV: $25M) with the Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have entered the sweepstakes for Bo Bichette and are suddenly the front-runner. My previous prediction of the Detroit Tigers seems far-fetched now, as the Tigers still have to figure out how to pay Tarik Skubal up to $32 million in arbitration this season, much less adding another big salary to the payroll.

Instead, the Phillies could look to move on from JT Realmuto in free agency and instead spend on Bichette. They would have to trade Alec Bohm (likely) or Bryson Stott, with either move opening up a spot for Bichette on the infield.

A middle infield of Trea Turner and Bo Bichette would be one of the best in baseball. Add Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber into that mix, and you have a potent top four in your lineup.

In the past, the Phillies have gone longer term on the years for a free agent to get them to sign at a lower AAV. That is what we are predicting here with Bichette signing with Philly on a nine-year deal.

Original Prediction:

Bo Bichette was very close to being an all-time World Series hero for the Blue Jays, hitting an early three-run homer in Game 7 that had Toronto in line to win it all. Now, the Blue Jays have to decide if that was Bichette’s last game played in their uniform.

Considering the fact that I already predicted the Blue Jays to land Tucker, it is hard to then envision them re-upping with Bichette as well.

While Bichette had a great season and put together an incredible effort on one leg in the World Series, the run that led the Blue Jays to the World Series would suggest that they don’t need to bring back Bo. This is not a knock on him; it is more just how their roster is constructed.

With Bichette out, the Blue Jays shifted Andres Gimenez from second base over to shortstop. Throughout the playoff run, Gimenez proved to be critical to the Blue Jays with his defense up the middle, which is clearly his biggest asset to the team moving forward.

Still owed over $85 million of the seven-year, $106.5 million deal he signed with the Guardians, Gimenez is on the books for big money over the next four seasons. If he is playing second base, the Blue Jays are underwater on that contract. If he’s playing great defense at shortstop, not as much.

With a contingency plan in place at short, and a bigger free agent to grab their attention in Tucker, the Blue Jays could just look to recoup some prospects by tagging Bichette with the QO and letting him sign with another team.

Now, picking a new team for Bichette was tough, but I thought a fun landing spot would be the Detroit Tigers. Last year, the Tigers made a big push for Bregman. Maybe Bichette is the infielder they can lock up long-term instead.

The Tigers currently feature the top prospect in all of baseball, shortstop Kevin McGonigle. There is every chance McGonigle is ready for Opening Day, which could make things a bit complicated if Bichette is unwilling to move off shortstop.

Either they defer to Bichette to get the talent in the door, and play McGonigle at third base, or they put their best defensive team on the field and shift Bichette to second or third and keep the better defender at short in McGonigle.

Regardless, Bichette could be the missing piece that unlocks a contender that can win it all with Tarik Skubal in 2026.

When it comes to the contract, Willy Adames got a seven-year, $182 million deal last year. That is $26 million per season for a shortstop who has a different game than Bichette’s, but one who would conceivably have a similar market value.

Since Bichette is 18 months younger than Adames was when he hit free agency, it is fair to expect that he could receive at least one more year than him on his deal. An eight-year deal at $26 million per year brings us to $208 million.

Cody Bellinger, OF – Signed a Five-year, $162.5 Million Deal with the Yankees

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 Stats: 152 G, .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 10 SB, 125 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Six-year, $150 million (AAV: $25M)
• Team Prediction: New York Yankees

New Contract Prediction: Bellinger signs a six-year, $180 million deal with deferrals that bring the present-day value down to $160 million.

Same team prediction, but we will adjust the contract based on the recent reporting.

Bellinger and the Yankees are in a heated contract negotiation, one which New York has already threatened to walk away from. They reportedly have a five-year deal on the table that would pay Bellinger north of $30 million per, but Bellinger is looking for a seven-year deal.

I think they meet in the middle on a six-year deal, which could pay Bellinger $30 million per season.

If the Yankees make a concession on the contract length, they may look to add some deferrals to the deal to lower their luxury tax bill, potentially dropping the present-day value of Bellinger’s contract to $160 million, which comes out to $26.67 million per.

Original Prediction:

Cody Bellinger signed a three-year, $80 million deal the last time he hit free agency, taking the “Boras special” high AAV short-term deal with opt-outs after each year. The first year of that contract was a rough one for Bellinger, as he played just 130 games, posting a 108 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR.

The Cubs looked to cut bait with Bellinger after a lackluster 2024 season and essentially salary-dumped him to the Yankees. The gamble paid off big-time for the Yankees, as Bellinger turned in his best season since his MVP campaign back in 2019.

Bellinger fit like a glove with the Yankees, hitting 29 home runs, driving in nearly 100, and posting a five-win season (5.0 bWAR, 4.9 fWAR). The Yankees have two outfielders hitting free agency, with Trent Grisham and Bellinger both hitting the market.

Bellinger seems like the free agent they are more likely to invest in long-term, as he has a longer track record of success and offers more positional flexibility.

His last deal had an AAV of $26.7 million, which may be hard to match this time over a longer-term deal, but Bellinger should clear $20 million per year at least. The range on Bellinger’s contract could be larger than any free agent on the board, really depending on the structure he wants.

If he wants years, at 30 years old, he can probably still get six or seven, assuming he is willing to take a lower AAV. If he’s willing to beat on himself on another three-year deal, he could easily find a deal worth $30 million per season.

My prediction falls somewhere in the middle when it comes to the years he will get and the amount of money he should receive per season.

Ranger Suarez, SP * Signed a Five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 Stats: 26 GS, 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 8.64 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Five-year, $110 million deal (AAV: $22M)
• Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers

NEW UPDATED Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves

This updated team prediction comes from a recent dive I did into Ranger Suarez and what his fit would look like with the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves could use a steady presence in the middle of their rotation, and also could use a second lefty to pair with Chris Sale. Likely priced out of the market for Framber Valdez, the Braves can shoot for Suarez, looking to poach from a division rival.

Suarez fits in any rotation, giving him plenty of landing spots to choose from. You can make a case that Suarez should be the No. 1 priority for both the Braves and the Tigers this offseason; it is just a matter of which team aggressively bids to make it happen.

If you want to read more about Suarez’s fit with the Braves, read our NL East predictions for some of the best moves that can be made through trades and free agency this offseason

8. J.T. Realmuto, C – Signed a Three-Year, $45 Million Deal with the Phillies

• Age in 2026: 35
• 2025 Stats: 134 G, .257/.315/.384, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 94 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $24 million (AAV: 12M)
• Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

My original prediction was more exciting, as I loved the fit of JT Realmuto on the San Diego Padres. After re-signing Michael King, however, I don’t think they will spend on a player like Realmuto.

Instead, I can’t help but think Realmuto ends up back on the Phillies when it is all said and done. Maybe he even settles for a one-year deal to return, but I will stick with my prior contract prediction that he ultimately lands a two-year deal as the top catcher in free agency.

Harrison Bader, CF – Signed a Two-year, $20.5 Million Deal with the Giants

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 146 G, .277/.347/.449, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 11 SB, 122 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $26 million deal (AAV: $13M)
• Team Prediction: Kansas City Royals

At this stage in the offseason, it certainly seems like the Phillies may be content to roll with top prospect Justin Crawford in center field, especially after signing Adolis Garcia to play right field.

While the Phillies could still trade Nick Castellanos to open up more at-bats in the outfield, there may not be enough for Bader to return. Instead, my new prediction has Bader heading to a team that could desperately use another quality veteran bat in the Kansas City Royals.

Kyle Isbel has been holding down center field for the Royals for the last few seasons, where he is great in the expansive outfield at Kauffman, but not great in the batter’s box. Bader would represent a real upgrade for a team that should be looking to make an upgrade before spring training.

Alex Bregman, 3B – Signed a Five-year,$175 Million Deal with the Cubs

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 114 G, .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 125 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Five-year, $155 million deal (AAV: $31M)
• Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

UPDATE: Signed a five-year, $175 million deal with the Cubs ($70 million deferred)

The Chicago Cubs made their biggest splash of the offseason over the weekend, stealing Alex Bregman from the Boston Red Sox on a five-year deal. The Cubs won the bidding by going to $175 million on a five-year deal, while also included a full no-trade clause.

Bregman instantly becomes a veteran leader on what could soon become the favorite in the NL Central.

When factoring in deferrals, Bregman’s contract is more in the $150-155 million range in terms of present day value, which falls more in line with my prediction. Deferred or not, Bregman ultimately cashed in $215 million across his free agent years when you combine this deal with the $40 million he earned with the Red Sox in 2025.

Original Prediction:

Last year, the Detroit Tigers offered Alex Bregman a six-year, $171.5 million deal. He reportedly asked for an opt-out in that deal after 2025, but the Tigers were only willing to put the opt-out after 2026. Bregman then asked for the Tigers to up the total money on the deal, but they declined.

He instead chose to sign a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox, with $60 million deferred, bringing the present money value of the deal to just over $31 million per year for luxury tax purposes.

Now, after one strong season in Boston, Bregman looks to hit the market again, likely trying to sign a long-term deal that takes him through his 30s.

Set to turn 32 years old around Opening Day, Bregman may want an eight-year deal that takes him through his age-39 season.

Considering the fact that the Tigers went the longest in contract length last year at six years, it is unlikely for Bregman to secure a deal beyond that when he is a year older and coming off a season dampened by injury.

The Boston Red Sox seemed like a great fit for Bregman, as he immediately assumed a leadership role, which proved invaluable on a team that is otherwise filled with a lot of young players.

By trading Rafael Devers, the Red Sox cleared a ton of money on their future books. Money that could conceivably go to Bregman.

After only giving him a three-year deal a year ago, I think it is unlikely the Red Sox double that this time around, but settling on a five-year commitment that pays him roughly the same AAV as last year (when factoring in the deferrals) would make a lot of sense

Tatsuya Imai, SP (Signed with the Houston Astros)

• Age in 2026: 28
• 2025 NPB Stats: 24 GS, 163.2 IP, 1.92 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Six-year, $114 million (AAV: $19M), opt-out after year three.
• Posting Fee: $18.975 million
• Team Prediction: New York Yankees

UPDATE: Signed with the Houston Astros on a three-year, $54 million deal with incentives

Similar to what we saw with Munetaka Murakami, the market never quite materialized for Tatsuya Imai, like we had expected, leading him to take a short-term deal with opt-outs.

Imai signed a three-year, $54 million deal, which will pay him $16 million in 2026, with a $2 million signing bonus. Imai has player options for 2027 and 2028, which have escalators depending on how many innings he pitches in 2026.

If Imai hits 80, 90, and 100 innings pitched, he earns $3 million in incentives for each of those benchmarks, $2 million apiece to increase his 2027 salary, and a $1 million apiece to increase his 2028 salary. The easiest way to understand the deal is to say that if Imai pitches 100 innings this year, the contract becomes a three-year, $63 million deal.

He collects $18 million for 2026, then would have a $24 million option for 2027, before a final player option at $21 million for 2028. The Astros paid a posting fee just shy of $10 million, so their investment in Imai for the 2026 season nearly reached $27 million altogether.

Original Prediction:

Dating back to the days of Hideki Matsui in the middle of their lineup, to Masahiro Tanaka headlining their rotation, the New York Yankees have a history of landing top stars from Japan.

The cache the Yankees have earned will allow them to get a meeting with any of the stars coming over. They were in the running to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto a few off-seasons ago, and they are surely going to be interested in the next top arm that is set to make the jump to MLB.

Now, let’s be clear about one thing. Tatsuya Imai is not going to field a similar market to that of his fellow countryman and 2025 World Series MVP, Yamamoto.

The Dodgers star was entering his age-25 season and was coming off three-straight years of winning the Triple Crown, the MVP, and their equivalent to the Cy Young Award, the Eiji Sawamura Award. Imai is not nearly as accomplished and is entering his age-28 season.

With that said, he has a career 3.15 ERA, and has finished with a sub-2.50 ERA in each of the last four seasons. Expecting him to be an ace in MLB is asking a bit too much, but Imai has the chance to be a No. 2 starter, or a really good No. 3 on a great team.

The Yankees don’t need Imai to be an ace. They have Max Fried to fill that role, and Gerrit Cole is expected to return from Tommy John surgery at some point as well.

Carlos Rodon is another top arm in the Yankees’ rotation, but he, too, is going to be rehabbing at the start of the upcoming season after getting a bone spur removed from his elbow in October..

Cam Schlitter and Luis Gil give the Yankees a couple of young arms to dream on, and Will Warren is going to provide solid depth at the back-end of the rotation.

Adding Imai to the mix would give the Yankees a healthy starter to slot behind Fried in the rotation to start the year, hedging their injury concern, and taking pressure off their young arms to have to lead the rotation.

As for the contract, Imai stands to make more than Kodai Senga and Shota Imanaga, who checked in at $75 million and $53 million, respectively, but is not going to get anywhere near the $325 million that Yamamoto signed for.

While teams will have to tack on a posting fee to land Imai, big markets may prefer to take a financial hit, rather than give up the prospect capital attached with signing some of the other top arms in the market.

The top five starting pitchers on the market all have the qualified offers attached, and the next two starting pitchers on our list.

Imai is the only potential frontline arm on the market that you don’t have to forfeit draft capital to sign. This should allow him to get one of the longest commitments of this class, and with Scott Boras representing him, there is every chance an opt-out is baked into the contract.

We landed on a six-year commitment with an opt-out halfway through the deal, giving Imai the chance to be a free agent after his age-30 season. A six-year, $114 million deal would come with a posting fee of $18.975 million. Taking the total commitment for Imai up over $130 million.

Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B (Signed with the Toronto Blue Jays)

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 NPB Stats: 69 G, .327/.416/.598, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 210 wRC+
• Contract Prediction: Five-year, $80 million deal ($16 million)
• Posting fee: $13,875,00 million
• Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners

UPDATED: Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays

Entering the offseason, nobody would have had Kazuma Okamoto pegged as the international free agent who would land the largest deal, but that is exactly what has happened after he signed a four-year pact with the Blue Jays on Saturday.

Because of a perceived higher floor than fellow countryman Munetaka Murakami, Okamoto was seen to have a wider market in free agency, and he was able to turn it into a $60 million deal that edges out Imai’s $54 million guarantee.

If Imai hits his incentives, his deal will be for more, but he very well may opt out of it. Okamoto cannot opt out of his deal, which still checked in a year and $30 million short of what I predicted he would get.

It’s still a solid deal for Okamoto compared to the other IFA guys of this current class, but looking back at Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida’s five-year deals of the past, this does still feel a bit light for a player of Okamoto’s caliber.

Original Prediction:

It certainly feels like Kazuma Okamoto has found a nice sweet spot in this year’s free agent class.

There might not be the same high ceiling as Murakami, but there is a much safer floor here, which is making Okamoto everyone’s favorite under-the-radar free agent.

A strong defender at either corner infield spot, Okamoto has a well-rounded profile, especially when you consider the fact that he puts bat on ball more than Murakami, and still packs plenty of power.

Okamoto has been consistent across his NPB career, hitting at least 30 home runs in each of his first six seasons, including a career-best 41 in 2023.

The Seattle Mariners could be a great fit for Okamoto, as they are a good team that has a vacancy over at third base. Having already signed Josh Naylor at first base, the Mariners still have holes at second and third, which could be filled by Okamoto and a reunion with Jorge Polanco.

Okamoto’s numbers don’t quite stack up to Seiya Suzuki’s heading into free agency a few years back, but they are pretty close. Suzuki got a five-year, $85 million deal to sign with the Cubs. An offseason later, Masataka Yoshida got a five-year, $90 million deal with the Red Sox.

If a bidding war forms for Okamoto, there is every chance he could top Yoshida and make $95 million over five years. However, I think it is more likely that to get five years guaranteed, he has to settle for an AAV a bit less.

Pete Fairbanks, RP (Signed with the Miami Marlins)

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 61 G, 60.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 27 SV, 3.63 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 8.80 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $28 million
• Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

UPDATE: Pete Fairbanks signs a one-year, $13 million contract with the Marlins

Fairbanks is traded one fish for another, moving from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Miami Marlins on a one-year, $13 million deal. This contract comes up shy of what I had projected by a one year and a million per, which shows the concern that must have been out there about Fairbanks durability.

With that said, he is making more than the $11 million club option the Rays had turned down picking up, so this offseason becomes a net positive for Fairbanks.

Original Prediction:

The Toronto Blue Jays have already added one big piece to their bullpen, signing submariner Tyler Rogers to a three-year, $37 million deal over the weekend. Still, this bullpen could use an upgrade in the ninth inning.

While he was largely great during the Blue Jays’ World Series run and saved 33 games during the regular season, there is a reason Toronto has been in on most of the major closers who have signed so far this offseason.

One of the teams that was rumored to have met with Edwin Diaz, as well as Robert Suarez, the Blue Jays have been in the market for a new closer, and Pete Fairbanks is the last one on the market.

The Blue Jays could operate closer by committee, especially come October, but Fairbanks has held the closer role in the AL East for the Rays across the last three years and has been very successful.

With the other top closers all getting between $14-16 million per year, Fairbanks should clear $20 million pretty comfortably, as he will get at least two years, if not three, as the top closer left on the market.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF/DH (Signed with the Pirates)

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 144 G, .281/.366/.437, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB, 127 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $33 million (AAV: $11M)
• Team Prediction: Texas Rangers

UPDATE: Ryan O’Hearn signed a two-year, $29 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates landed another big bat, adding Ryan O’Hearn to the same lineup as recent trade acquisition Brandon Lowe. O’Hearn does very well for himself on this deal, landing a contract that nearly pays him $15 million per season.

Original Prediction:

The Texas Rangers’ first big move of the offseason was flipping Marcus Semien to the New York Mets to land Brandon Nimmo.

Nimmo figures to lift the floor of a Rangers outfield that was largely inconsistent offensively across the 2025 season. If the Rangers want to contend in 2026, the additions can’t stop with Nimmo, as this is a team that could stand to add a few more sticks to round out a solid lineup.

Considering the fact that the Rangers non-tendered Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim to save roughly $18 million, and the Nimmo-Semien trade lowered their present-day payroll a bit as well, it is clear the Rangers are not going to spend at the top of the market.

They can still add, though. And Ryan O’Hearn is the perfect free agent to target.

O’Hearn is coming off a strong season where he got on-base at a .366 clip and posted a 127 wRC+. A good defender at first base, and a passable one in a corner outfield spot, O’Hearn brings a bit of welcomed versatility, and a consistent at-bat you can slide into the middle of your lineup.

The Rangers can platoon O’Hearn with Jake Burger at first base, but they might want to find a way to keep his bat in the lineup against left-handers as well, as he really improved left-on-left this past season. This is where being able to flex out to left field is so valuable, with Wyatt Langford sliding to center, and Evan Carter to the bench against a left-handed pitcher.

Josh Naylor’s signing early in free agency opened up a world of possibilities for O’Hearn, as he is now the second-best first baseman on the market behind Pete Alonso. The Rangers should prioritize landing him, even if it takes giving him a third year to get a deal done.

Tyler Mahle, SP (Signed with the San Francisco Giants)

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 16 GS, 86.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 6.85 K/9
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $18 million
• Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

UPDATE: Tyler Mahle signs with the Giants on a one-year, $10 million deal

Well we were way off on this one. Tyler Mahle was great whenever he was on the mound in 2025, he just wasn’t on the mound enough. Since we have seen lesser pitchers get big salary due to their upside (we are looking at you Frankie Montas and your $34 million deal last year), we thought some team may pony up big on a one-year deal for Mahle. Instead, he settles for just $10 million.

The Giants could get a steal here if Mahle can be healthy. But that big if cost him a lot of money in free agency and will continue to cost him until he can prove that he is a durable big league starter once again.

Original Prediction:

Speaking of a pitcher with injury risk, Tyler Mahle is another starting pitcher who returned to the mound after TJ last season. Mahle was even better than Giolito when on the hill; he just failed to get on there nearly as much.

Mahle went on the IL in June and would not return until September, as the right-hander dealt with shoulder fatigue.

Teams will be in on Mahle because of the upside he flashed in 2025, but it is very unlikely that he will receive a commitment that stretches beyond 2026. Instead, Mahle is likely to get a strong one-year deal, which he can use as his platform into free agency next year.

The Philadelphia Phillies are set at the top of their rotation with Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and what they hope is a healthy return to the rotation for Zack Wheeler. Aaron Nola will look to bounce back, and they still have Taijuan Walker to eat innings.

With that said, they are potentially losing Ranger Suarez in free agency, and while top prospect Andrew Painter is expected to graduate in 2026, he may still need some more seasoning in Triple-A before he does.

Signing Mahle would give the Phillies an insurance policy on Painter and a better option than Walker if everyone else is healthy.

Dylan Cease, SP *

• Age in 2026: 30
• 2025 Stats: 32 GS, 168 IP, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 11.52 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Seven-year, $210 million deal (AAV: $30M)
• Team Prediction: San Francisco Giants

UPDATE: November 27, 2025, Dylan Cease signs seven-year, $210 million deal with Blue Jays

Our second correct contract prediction of the young offseason, Dylan Cease lands a $210 million deal as the top arm of this year’s free agent class. My prediction had Cease going to the San Francisco Giants, but Cease chose the other coast entirely, signing with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Cease will join a rotation that returns Kevin Gausman, rookie postseason hero Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber (on an affordable $16 million deal), and veteran Jose Berrios.

Original Prediction:

You might be surprised to see Dylan Cease ranked ahead of Framber Valdez, with the latter coming off a far better season, but Cease is younger and has the best stuff of any free agent starting pitcher.

It is because of these factors that I feel Cease gets the largest and longest deal from this year’s free agent class. Last year, Max Fried got an eight-year, $218 million deal, which carries a $27.5 million AAV. Corbin Boras signed a six-year, $210 million deal, earning $35 million per season.

Cease could clear $200 million, and I have him settling in the middle of these two deals, getting $30 million per season over a seven-year deal, landing on a total contract valued at $210 million.

When it comes to landing spots for Cease, there are plenty, but one that could make a lot of sense is if Cease stays in the NL West but lands with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have one more year of Robbie Ray on their books for $25 million.

Logan Webb is under contract on an affordable five-year, $90 million deal, which will pay him $23 million for the next two seasons, and $24 million in 2028. Creating a trio of Webb, Ray, and Cease would give the Giants a rotation that could rival the best in the National League.

Then, when Ray hits free agency after 2026, the Giants could still have two workhorses to count on moving forward with Webb and Cease.

Kyle Schwarber, DH *

• Age in 2026: 33
• 2025 Stats: 162 G, .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBI, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Four-year, $128 million deal (AAV: $32M)
• Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

UPDATE: December 9th, 2025, Kyle Schwarber signs five-year, $150 million deal with Phillies

There was never really a doubt that Kyle Schwarber was going back to the Phillies before he signed anywhere else. He’s become a beloved figure amongst the club’s decision makers and its fans, and has turned into one of baseball’s most prolific power bats.

“Schwarbs” will now remain in the heart of this Phillies lineup for the next half-decade, right where he belongs.

Original Prediction:

Schwarber was the Phillies’ MVP this past season, leading his team to their second-straight NL East division title.

While playoff success has eluded Schwarber and the Phillies the last few seasons, there is no reason for this marriage to end, as Schwarber was wildly productive over the life of his contract in Philly.

Signed to a four-year, $79 million prior to the 2022 season, Schwarber averaged 47 home runs per season across the life of the deal, hitting 187 home runs, which ties Shohei Ohtani for the second-most in all of baseball since 2022. Aaron Judge leads the league with 210 homers.

Schwarber is a consistent run-producer, coming off a career-best 132 runs batted in, which led Major League Baseball in 2025.

The Phillies are entering this offseason with their top priority being to bring Schwarber back, and rightfully so. There is every chance Schwarber could leverage a career-year in 2025 into a contract that is even longer than his last deal, as there is a world where Schwarber gets five or six years.

In the past, the Phillies have used longer contracts to spread out the AAV of the deals for their top-paid stars, look to Bryce Harper’s 13-year deal, or Trea Turner’s 11-year deal.

Entering his age-33 season, coming off four very healthy and productive seasons, there is no reason to think Schwarber can’t hold up as a primary DH for years to come.

With that said, four years should be a nice sweet spot for Schwarber, getting the same length of contract he signed as a 29-year-old free agent, but with a lot more money coming his way over the life of the deal.

Pete Alonso, 1B

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 162 G, .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 141 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Five-year, $150 million deal (AAV: $30M)
• Team Prediction: New York Mets

Last year, Pete Alonso had to wait until February to sign his new deal with the New York Mets, as no market ever developed for the homegrown slugger, forcing him to return on a two-year, $54 million pillow contract with the Mets.

The contract made Alonso the highest-paid first baseman in baseball for 2025, earning $30 million with a $24 million security blanket of a player option for 2026. Coming off an outstanding season that was one of the best of his career, Alonso is primed for a much better trip to free agency this time around.

No longer saddled with the qualifying offer, there should be more of a market for Alonso this time around, which could finally get the Mets to commit to a longer-term deal.

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now making just north of $35 million per season, Alonso settling in at $30 million a year seems like a fair price. Maybe to go to a five, or even a six-year commitment, the Mets can convince Alonso to help them with the luxury tax by deferring some of the deal.

Regardless, the Mets are going to have a very hard time trying to replace Alonso if they don’t re-sign him, so I expect the two sides to find some common ground.

Michael King, SP *

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 15 GS, 73.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.33 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $66 million deal (AAV: $22M), opt-out after 2026
• Team Prediction: Boston Red Sox

UPDATE: Michael King Re-Signs with the Padres, Three-year, $75 Million Deal

In a surprise move, the San Diego Padres have re-signed their ace, inking Michael King to a three-year, $75 million deal. The contract will pay King $5 million in 2026, with a $12 million signing bonus. He will then have a $28 million player option for 2027, which will carry a $5 million buyout. In the final year of the deal, King holds a $30 million player option, with no buyout.

Essentially, this deal will either pay King $22 million for one year, $45 million for two years, or the full $75 million for three if both player options are exercised.

Original Prediction:

If Michael King were able to replicate his 2024 campaign in 2025, we would be talking about one of, if not the top free agent starting pitcher on the market. Once a relief weapon for the Yankees, in his first full season as a starting pitcher, King pitched to a 2.95 ERA with 201 strikeouts in 173 2/3 IP.

In 2025, King dealt with a nerve issue in his right shoulder that sidelined him in the middle of the season. Upon making his return, he developed a knee injury in August. The injuries held King to just 15 starts and 73 1/3 innings pitched, and now he hits the market with some doubts.

King already declined his mutual option with the Padres, and now stands to be tagged with the qualifying offer. King could accept the QO, return to San Diego, and hit the market next year, but he should be able to do better.

Even if he doesn’t get any five-year offers, King should be able to match the salary from the qualifying offer at the very least, and still get the security of a multi-year deal.

King seems like the type of free agent that can get three guaranteed years now, with an opt-out or opt-outs being included so he can test the market again after a healthy season.

If King posts 30 starts in 2026, he can become a free agent ahead of his age-32 season and shop for a long-term deal, when no longer encumbered by the qualifying offer.

Now, when it comes to a landing spot for King, signing with the Boston Red Sox could make some sense, as they have a need for a No. 2 behind Garrett Crochet. King can join the other side of the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry and pitch in a prominent role on an up-and-coming Boston team.

Edwin Diaz, RP

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 62 G, 66.1 IP, 1.63 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 13.30 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Four-year, $80 million deal (AAV: $20M)
• Team Prediction: New York Mets

UPDATE: December 9th, 2025, Edwin Díaz signs three-year, $69 million deal with Dodgers

The Dodgers were able to squeak by the Blue Jays in the 2025 World Series, but it wasn’t in comfortable fashion by any means. Los Angeles’ bullpen looked worn down at multiple points throughout the legendary series, and the need for some help in the back-end was apparent.

This was highlighted by the fact that Tanner Scott, who the club signed to be their closer for multiple years, was either wildly unpredictable or injured all year long and didn’t make a single postseason appearance for the club. That left the door wide open for a player like Díaz to be brought into the fold.

Not only did the Dodgers find a way to land the best-available option as they so frequently do this time of year, but they got Díaz at what many are saying is a cheap contract. There’s no doubt he’s going to be an absolute weapon for them for the next couple years.

Original Prediction:

Similar to Pete Alonso, seeing Edwin Diaz in a jersey other than the New York Mets would be a bit strange. The Mets clearly need to re-sign or replace Diaz, but after the season he had in 2025, we are once again talking about the best closer available in free agency.

While Diaz stands to be the bell of the ball in terms of top relievers, there is no telling how long he even plans to stay on the market.

Last time Diaz hit free agency, he was coming off an even better season, where he struck out more than 50% of the batters that he faced. Still, the Mets closer opted to re-sign during the five-day exclusive negotiation window after the season, instead of hitting the open market.

Due to that decision, Diaz has actually never been extended the qualifying offer, making him an easy tag for the Mets if he does hit the market.

Diaz’s last contract was a five-year, $102 million deal. Deferrals in the contract took the AAV for luxury tax purposes down to around $18.6 million per season.

That was three years ago, so Diaz may not get a five-year deal this time around, but he should still command close $20 million per season on a three or four-year pact.

Robert Suarez, RP

• Age in 2026: 35
• 2025 Stats: 70 G, 69.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 9.69 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $51 million deal (AAV: $17M)
• Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have been spending big already this offseason, and they are in the market to add a closer. Pushing Jeff Hoffman to a set-up role alongside Louis Varland is the foundation of a bullpen that can go the distance.

The best closer on the board is Edwin Diaz, but we already predicted that he is going to land with the Mets, so that is off the table. Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley have come off the board as well.

That leaves Robert Suarez as the next-best closer on the market, with Pete Fairbanks sitting just behind. Suarez has stretches where he is absolutely unhittable. And he can do so with a single pitch.

There is every chance Suarez waits out Diaz, and ends up getting rewarded with a huge payday from whoever finishes second on Edwin, which could be Toronto. If there are a few teams still waiting for a closer, Suarez may even be able to parlay his standing atop the market into a third year.

Honestly, this is one where I went back-and-forth on what the proper prediction should be. I predicted Devin Williams to sign a four-year deal, and he landed free, which had me learning toward taking a year off on Suarez, dropping a three-year deal down to two.

Since Ryan Helsley never cracked our top 20 free agents and signed before he could get added to the list, I never got the chance to make a prediction for him, but I was leaning towards a three-year deal with an opt-out, and he only got two.

This left me stuck between predicting a two-year, $36 million contract

8. Munetaka Murakami

• Age in 2026: 26
• 2025 NPB Stats: 56 G, .273/.379/.663, 22 HR, 47 RBI, 210 wRC+
• Contract Prediction: Seven-year, $140 million deal (AAV: $20M), opt-out after year 3
• Posting Fee: $22.875 million
• Team Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

UPDATE: Munetaka Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Chicago White Sox

We missed this prediction by over $100 million. Not ideal, but also we were not alone.

The entire industry thought this guy was going to set the record for the most money ever given to a Japanese position player in international free agency, but concerns over his swing-and-miss and lack of a clear defensive position led to the market cratering for Murakami.

Pushed up against a Monday deadline to sign, Murakami inked a two-year deal with the White Sox on Sunday for only $34 million.

UPDATED Team Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

If there is one team that should take the gamble on giving Munetaka Murakami a long-term deal, it is the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have third base at-bats to give Murakami, and they could use another star.

Aram Leighton and I discussed why the Angels are the perfect fit for Murakami on the Just Baseball Show a few weeks back.

Original Prediction:

If you rewind the tape three years, the anticipation for Munetaka Murakami’s MLB debut was one of the biggest talking points of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, with Murakami being one of the stars for Team Japan.

Murakami was coming off a 2022 season where he hit an NPB record 56 home runs, driving in 134 runs with a 1.168 OPS. If he hit MLB free agency after that season, and being only 25 years old, we could be talking about a $300 million player here.

Instead, we are looking at a player who is going to set the record for the largest contract ever given to a Japanese position player, but not nearly to the extent that we once thought.

There is some skepticism swirling around Murakami right now, due to a pair of down seasons in 2023 and 2024, and then an injury-plagued season in 2025.

Murakami’s OPS dipped to .875 in 2023, then to .851 in 2024. He still hit over 30 home runs per season, but the MVP-level production was not there anymore.

Despite being limited to 56 games in 2025, Murakami hit 24 home runs and looked more like the slugger who set that record in 2022. This is a three true outcomes hitter who could lead MLB in strikeouts in 2026, but also could be near the top of the leaderboards in home runs.

Because of his age, Murakami stands to get a long-term deal, one that could even come with an opt-out that allows him to hit free agency again prior to turning 30.

The Phillies have been trying to land a player from Japan for years now to build their footprint over in Asia, and there is no better player to do it than Murakami. A hitter’s friendly ballpark, Citizens Bank, would be the perfect new home for Murakami.

If Kyle Schwarber does not re-sign with the Phillies, they are going to need a replacement and Murakami could fit the billing at DH. They also can play Murakami at third base, where he would be shaky defender at best, but would provide way more upside with the bat than Alec Bohm.

Merrill Kelly, SP

• Age in 2026: 37
• 2025 Stats: 32 GS, 184 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.17 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $36 million (AAV: $18M)
• Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

What team loves old starting pitchers more than the Baltimore Orioles?

With Kyle Gibson and Charlie Morton being the last few prominent starting pitchers that the Orioles have signed, the fit for Merrill Kelly makes too much sense here.

Now, this is not a knock on Merrill Kelly, who is coming off a great season, and really years of being one of the most dependable starting pitchers in baseball. Kelly would actually be a great addition in Baltimore.

It’s just fair to point out that he is going into his age-37 season, and the Orioles seem to have a type.

Following those contracts from the past, a contract in the $16-20 million range makes sense for Kelly, who could maybe ink a two-year deal to sign in Baltimore.

If Trevor Rogers can return to the ace form he flashed in 18 starts in 2025, Kelly can slot in as a dependable No. 2, taking pressure off Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who each have great upside but have struggled to stay on the mound.

Speaking of struggling to stay on the mound, the Orioles just traded Grayson Rodriguez, moving on from a high upside arm who they could not count on to make his starts.

In three of the last four seasons, Kelly has pitched to a sub-3.60 ERA over 175+ innings. Adding that type of production to the Orioles’ rotation would be massive.

With that said, Kelly should have no shortage of suitors, as he is the best starting pitcher on the market that is not saddled with a qualifying offer (outside of the international guys

Jorge Polanco, 2B

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 138 G, .265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 132 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $24 million (AAV: $12M)
• Team Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to add bats, and all reports suggest that they have money to spend. Considering their bid on Josh Naylor came well shy of his final contract, it is fair to assume that Pittsburgh is going to be priced out of the very top of the free agent market.

Jorge Polanco is one of the top bats in the next tier of free agents, coming off an outstanding season where he blasted 26 home runs in 138 regular-season games, then added three more across 12 games in October, with two of them coming in the same game off Cy Young Tarik Skubal.

Polanco’s playoff heroics showed he could deliver in big moments. But for the Pirates, all they really need is for him to hit 25 home runs, and they would be thrilled.

Josh Naylor, 1B

• Age in 2026: 29
• 2025 Stats: 147 G, .295/.353/.462, 20 HR, 92 RBI, 30 SB, 128 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Four-year, $88 million deal (AAV: $22M)
• Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Actual Contract: Five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Seattle Mariners

Well, the prediction on Naylor was spot on as far as the team is concerned, but the structure of the deal is a little different than the prediction.

My expectation was that Naylor may struggle to get a fifth guaranteed year if he was going to get the same AAV as Christian Walker. I thought he might even get a tick more if he signed a four-year deal. Hence, the four-year, $88 million prediction.

Instead, Naylor got his fifth year, taking a slightly lower AAV but guaranteeing more money overall.

Original Prediction:

The fit was perfect. Josh Naylor belongs in a Seattle Mariner uniform.

Compared to Eugenio Suarez’s lackluster performance after the deadline trade, Naylor was the polar opposite. The 28-year-old far exceeded expectations, hitting .295/.353/.462, with nine home runs, 33 RBIs, and a whopping 19 stolen bases in 54 games.

Naylor continued to produce when it mattered most on the Mariners’ long playoff run, hitting .340/.392/.574, with a 176 wRC+ in October.

A quick fan-favorite, it is a no-brainer to re-up with Naylor, especially since he won’t turn 29 years old until the end of June, giving him plenty of real estate left in his prime.

If the Mariners went to five years or six years on Naylor to lower the AAV, they can rest easy knowing that even a six-year deal won’t take him past 35.

But considering the market for first basemen in recent years, I ultimately think Naylor and the Mariners will settle on a four-year deal, and one that is a bit richer in AAV than the three-year deal Christian Walker signed last offseason ($20 million AAV).

Luke Weaver, RP

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 64 G, 64.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 10.02 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Two-year, $22 million
• Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

UPDATE: Luke Weaver signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the New York Mets

Well, we nailed the contract prediction here, if only we had picked Luke Weaver staying in New York and signing with his Mets. Weaver will be the set-up man to Devin Williams, as the Mets look to replace the loss of closer Edwin Diaz with a pair of former Yankee closers.

Original Prediction:

Luke Weaver had a rough end to his 2025 season, but prior to that, he was one of the better relievers in baseball throughout the 2024 season and the first half of 2025. A former starter, there has been talk of Weaver getting stretched out again, but with teams needing high-leverage arms, Weaver may be best served just sticking in the bullpen.

The Baltimore Orioles have been aggressive so far this offseason, swinging a big trade for Taylor Ward, signing Ryan Helsley, and then landing their biggest free agent in a long time, Pete Alonso.

They have Helsley and re-acquired Andrew Kittredge to pitch in leverage late in games, but could still use one more addition to put their bullpen over the top.

Weaver would fall into a comfortable price range for Baltimore, just a shade under what the top closers have been getting on the market.

Shota Imanaga, SP *

• Age in 2026: 32
• 2025 Stats: 25 GS, 144.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 7.28 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $54 million (AAV: $18M)
• Team Prediction: Houston Astros

Actual Contract: Accepted the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer

If Shota Imanaga hit the free agent market, I do think there would have been teams that would have given him an offer on a three-year deal, but those offers would have likely checked in under $20 million per season.

With the qualifying offer attached and the uncertainty of how his season ended, Imanaga seemed in line to get paid like a No. 3 or 4 starter. Remember, though, Imanaga is only a year removed from a top-five NL Cy Young finish, so if he wants closer to frontline money, it is going to take a bounce-back season to prove he can still lead a staff. Or even just be a viable option in October.

Now Imanaga gets to collect a nice $22.025 million salary in 2026, stay where he is comfortable with the Chicago Cubs, and look to earn himself a lot of money when he no longer has the QO attached next year in free agency.

If he wanted to find a new home, he easily could have taken a similar one-year prove-it deal elsewhere, and the Cubs would have gotten draft pick compensation. But clearly Imanaga is comfortable with the Cubs, and wants to stick around for his platform year.

Original Prediction:

A surprising late addition to our top 20 MLB free agents, Shota Imanaga hits the market after two relatively strong seasons with the Chicago Cubs. His first year was far better than his second, as he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting, but Imanaga still managed to make 25 starts and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in 2025.

The Cubs held a club option on Imanaga where they could have locked in a three-year, $57 million extension, which would have paid him $20 million in each of the next two seasons and $17 million in 2028, taking the grand total of the deal up to $80 million over five years.

Imanaga then an the chance to stay with the Cubs on a $15 million player option, which would then trigger another set of options next year where the Cubs could opt into two final years and $42 million, while Imanaga would get another $15 million player option if they again declined.

Essentially, Imanaga is walking away from $30 million over the next two years, an amount he should be able to clear rather easily. If nothing else, Imanaga could lock in a third and fourth year guaranteed at $15 million per, but he may even do a bit better.

Ultimately, an AAV of $18 million could make sense for Shota, and over three years, that would pay him just shy of the $57 million extension the Cubs declined to pick up.

When it comes to a team fit, the Houston Astros could use a starting pitcher, but may not be able to shop at the very top of the market.

Imanaga is no Framber Valdez, but he is also a better bet than Lance McCullers Jr., Jason Alexander, and Spencer Arrighetti, who are all projected to be in their 2026 rotation right now. Hunter Brown is clearly the ace. Imanaga would give the Astros a dependable middle-of-the-rotation arm who still has frontline upside if he can rediscover his 2024 form.

Brandon Woodruff, SP *

• Age in 2026: 33
• 2025 Stats: 12 GS, 64.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 11.55 K/9
• Contract Prediction: One-year, $22.025 million deal
• Team Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Actual Contract: Accepted the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer

The first exacto of free agency! Read the prediction above. It pretty much played out exactly like that!.

Original Prediction:

Brandon Woodruff missed the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery in October of 2023.

The Brewers non-tendered Woodruff after the 2023 season, but eventually re-signed him to a two-year, $17.5 million deal, which paid him $2.5 million while rehabbing in 2024, and $5 million for this past season in 2025. The kicker in the deal was a $20 million mutual option for 2026, which contained a $10 million buyout.

The Brewers were never going to decline that option to pay Woodruff $10 million to leave, but it became a moot point as it has already been reported that Woodruff has declined his end of the mutual option and will become a free agent.

Now, the Brewers have a chance to tag him with the qualifying offer. Being hampered by the restrictions of a QO, Woodruff may decide it is worth it to accept the offer, then hit the market after the 2026 season, after further proving his health and without the QO attached.

Ultimately, whether it is accepting the QO or taking a prove-it deal with another team, a one-year pact worth just over $20 million feels right for Woodruff.

Woodruff dealt with various in injuries in 2025, as an ankle injury delayed the start of his season, and a lat injury took him out of the mix for the playoffs.

If Woodruff can stay healthy in 2026, there is every chance he would be rewarded with a lucrative multi-year deal next offseason, as he still largely resembled the frontline pitcher he has always been when he did make his starts this past season.

Trent Grisham, CF *

• Age in 2026: 29
• 2025 Stats: 143 G, .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 74 RBI, 3 SB, 129 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR
• Contract Prediction: Three-year, $42 million deal (AAV: $14M)
• Team Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Actual Contract: Accepted the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer

If you look at our contract prediction, you can see how we forecast a bit of a tepid market for Grisham. The combination of his lack of a track record offensively, and his declining metrics defensively, made Grisham a puzzle to figure out value on.

Ultimately, when you added on the complications of a qualifying offer, Grisham was facing an uncertain market to say the least. If he signed the deal we predicted, he would have $20 million more in guaranteed money, but his AAV would be over $8 million less.

Instead, Grisham will collect $22.025 million in 2026. If he can continue to take advantage of the right field porch at Yankee Stadium and prove the power surge he found is legit, Grisham could cash in big on his bet on himself next year.

Original Prediction:

How do we properly place value on Trent Grisham? A player who has largely been a fourth outfielder throughout his career but had a breakout season in a contract year in 2025.

Grisham is a center fielder entering his age-29 season, coming off a year where he hit 34 homers. If you just read that part of his resume, we could be talking about a $100+ million deal for Grisham.

When you peel back the curtain and look at his career .720 OPS, or the fact that he was a below-average hitter by wRC+ in the three years prior to 2025, it is hard to justify paying Grisham top dollar over a long-term deal.

A rather good comp for Grisham can be found from last offseason, when Jurickson Profar hit the market after a career year with the Padres, where he posted a 139 wRC+ and a 4.3 fWAR season.

Profar was coming off a slightly better all-around year than Grisham, but he was also three years older. Ultimately, a three-year deal for Grisham at $14 million per year would be a marked improvement on the $5 million he made in his final year of arbitration in 2025.

Maybe due to the difference in age, Grisham can get an opt-out added to his next contract so that he could hit the market again if he managed to repeat his 2025 performance. Then, with two years of being this level of slugger, and still only entering his age-30 season, Grisham could collect a much bigger payday.

Devin Williams, RP

• Age in 2026: 31
• 2025 Stats: 67 G, 62.0 IP, 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 13.06 K/9
• Contract Prediction: Four-year, $60 million deal (AAV: $15M), opt-out after 2027
• Original Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves
• UPDATED Team Prediction: New York Mets

Williams signed a three-year, $51 million deal with the Mets, first reported on December 1st

Well we got a team prediction right! First I thought Williams was a perfect fit for the Atlanta Braves, but when they quickly re-upped with Raisel Iglesias, I updated the prediction to the New York Mets.

In terms of contract, Williams got $51 million over three years, although $15 million in deferred money takes the present day value down to around $45 million.

The $15 million AAV of the deal lines up with our prediction, but he only got it over three years not four, and did not get an opt-out in the deal. This structure is favorably to the Mets, giving them either an elite set-up man for Edwin Diaz, or a closer that can replace him if he signs elsewhere.

Updated Team Prediction:

Free agency came a year late for Devin Williams. Had ‘The Airbender’ hit free agency off of his six seasons in Milwaukee, where he pitched to a 1.83 ERA, Williams would have likely been able to match former teammate Josh Hader’s five-year, $95 million deal.

Instead, Williams is coming off a season where he pitched to a career-worst 4.79 ERA, as he struggled mightily facing the limelight of being the New York Yankees’ closer, eventually losing the role mid-season.

To his credit, Williams made four scoreless appearances when it mattered most for the Yankees in the playoffs. While those four innings won’t erase the 62 regular-season innings where he struggled, they should at least remind teams what Williams is capable of.

My original prediction was that the Williams would sign with the Atlanta Braves, but now that they have re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias to a one-year, $16 million deal, it is fair to take them out of the Devin Williams sweepstakes.

Instead, I will stay in the same division but predict that the New York Mets will win the bidding for Williams. If the Mets lose Edwin Diaz, this suddenly would feel like a slam-dunk fit to replace him.

However, there is also the chance the Mets bring back Diaz and still look to spend on a set-up man, and create a pairing that would be tough to beat at the end of games.

Williams very well could take a shorter deal that allows him to get right back to free agency after one good season, but for this deal, we are projecting what a four-year contract could look like.

If the Mets, or any team, commits to four years of Williams at $15 million per, they can likely place an opt-out after the second year instead of the first, guaranteeing two years of his services in the back-end of their bullpen.