Padres and D-backs Are Lined Up for a Psuedo Play-In Series
The Padres and Diamondbacks will close the regular season with a three-game set that could be for all the marbles.
The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks may be giving fans a preview of October baseball.
The two clubs have been competing for the final NL Wild Card spot, and as fate would have it, they will face each other in their final series of the regular season.
Depending on how the standings shake out before then, the three-game set could effectively determine who punches their ticket to the playoffs.
As things stand, San Diego holds a half-game lead over Arizona, while the season series between the two clubs is knotted at 5-5.
Obviously, there are a multitude of scenarios that both teams could enter the pivotal three-game set with. However, if the standings remain this tight, this series could essentially become a three-game playoff for the final Wild Card spot.
The Previous Games
As previously stated, the teams are 5-5 against each other this season.
In those 10 games, the Padres have scored 47 runs compared to the Diamondbacks’ 52 runs.
The disparity has been even more noticeable on the mound. Padres starters own a 4.94 ERA against Arizona. In those 10 starts, only Michael King registered two quality starts, while Randy Vasquez recorded one.
For the Diamondbacks, their starters have combined for a 3.91 ERA against San Diego. Quality starts were turned in once by Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, and Mitch Bratt.
On paper, Arizona has outscored and outpitched San Diego in the season series. However, in a playoff atmosphere, these numbers are nearly meaningless. Still, they are good for context and help us understand how these teams have fared against each other.
Leading Up to the Series
The Padres finish their season playing the Giants, Rockies, Marlins, and Dodgers before their series with the Diamondbacks.
Comparatively, the Diamondbacks face the Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, and Rockies.
San Diego has a slightly easier schedule on paper, with its upcoming opponents owning a .486 winning percentage compared to .494 for Arizona’s remaining opponents.
Both clubs also began the season with poor offensive showings. Arizona ranked 25th in OPS (.691), while San Diego ranked 30th (.673). In terms of starting pitching, Arizona ranked 18th in ERA (4.39), while San Diego ranked 27th (4.78).
Since the All-Star break, however, both teams have experienced a resurgence.
The Padres rank third in OPS (.759) during the second half, while Arizona ranks sixth (.738). San Diego’s rotation has also taken a massive leap, posting the second-best ERA in baseball at 3.22. Arizona’s rotation has improved as well, posting a 3.91 ERA.
The result has been two teams playing their best baseball at the most important time of the year.
San Diego is 30-20 since the break, while Arizona is 29-22.
The Head-to-Head Matchup
Given what is at stake, it would make sense to assume that both managers will treat these games more like playoff games than ordinary regular-season contests.
Game 1 could feature a pitching matchup of Michael King and Corbin Burnes.
King has had plenty of success against the Snakes this season, owning a 3.18 ERA with 17 strikeouts in three starts. Burnes, meanwhile, has made his long-awaited return to a major league mound and should have several starts to regain his form before this pivotal series.
If both pitchers are healthy and performing at their best, Game 1 could immediately set the tone for the series.
In Game 2, it is a good bet that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo will turn to Eduardo Rodriguez, who is having a stellar year. In 29 starts, Rodriguez owns a 2.55 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. There are some underlying numbers that provide reason for caution, but in a potential playoff-caliber game, the results on the scoreboard are what matter most.
Padres manager Craig Stammen could be left with a much tougher decision.
Nick Pivetta returned from the 60-day injured list but was hit hard in his first start back. There is still time for him to round into shape, but if that trend continues, it would be difficult to trust him with such a high-leverage start.
Additionally, both deadline acquisitions, Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, have been lackluster.
That could lead Stammen to take a hot-hand approach. One option would be Walker Buehler, who owns a 3.26 ERA over his last 10 starts.
Game 3 is where things could get particularly interesting.
With the season potentially hanging in the balance, all hands should be on deck. The managers could turn to a bullpen game, ride a starter longer than usual, or mix and match throughout the afternoon or evening.
With both offenses clicking the way they are, short leashes for starting pitchers could also become a factor throughout the series.
That is where San Diego may have its biggest advantage.
The separator between these two teams is their bullpens. San Diego owns the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.92, while Arizona ranks 20th at 4.06.
This could allow the Padres to be more aggressive with their starters and pull them at the first sign of trouble, particularly against an Arizona lineup that has been one of the better offenses in the second half.
Arizona, meanwhile, may need its starters to provide more length and keep games out of the hands of its weaker bullpen.
Final Thoughts
This is what the 162-game regular season is all about.
After months of baseball, the Padres and Diamondbacks could enter the final series with the postseason hanging in the balance. The fact that they have split their first 10 meetings only adds to the intrigue.
There will be plenty of star power on display, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Nolan Arenado all potentially playing major roles.
But for all the offensive firepower on both sides, the series could ultimately come down to pitching.
Arizona has held its own against San Diego throughout the season, but the Padres’ second-half rotation and dominant bullpen could give them an important advantage when the games matter most.
If the standings remain this tight, there may not be a better way to close out the regular season than with three games that feel more like October than September.
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Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is a recent San Diego State…