Top Notes From the San Diego Padres ZiPS Projections for 2025

There is perhaps no greater illusionist in all of Major League Baseball than San Diego Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller.

During his more than a decade reign in San Diego’s front office, Preller has time and time again has had the audience of MLB fans thinking one thing before reaching into his bag of tricks and producing another move that has that same audience saying, “Oh, I didn’t see that coming.”

Preller had his top hat and wand working overtime late in this offseason.

In fact, Preller changed the direction of the team with four moves that happened so late that the ZiPS projections produced about the Padres on January 29 were already outdated by the time San Diego’s pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria, Ariz.

Connor Joe and Jason Heyward were signed in a move that would provide (in theory) the answer to the question in left field after the departure of Jurickson Profar, whose OPS+ of 134 last season in a career year in 2024 and clubhouse presence will truly be hard to replace.

Now with the Braves on a three-year, $42 million deal, if the Padres can really replace Profar will be one of the more interesting questions to watch this season in San Diego.

Two other new additions changed the ZiPS model as well, with pitchers Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart changing the look at what could be a very strong Padres rotation (more about that in a moment).

Both additions were surprising moves and put to rest the notion that San Diego was looking to deal Dylan Cease and/or Michael King.

Rather than retool the rotation, Preller’s magic strengthened it, with Pivetta likely slotting into the middle of the rotation and Hart, the winner of the Choi Dong-won Award, honoring the best starting pitcher in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO), competing for a spot in the back end with a number of other Padres holdovers from last season.

Those are the primary new additions in San Diego, added to a stacked lineup mostly kept together after just falling short to the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year’s National League Division Series.

As a note, this year’s NL standings via ZiPS have the Padres with just a 51.2 percent to make the postseason after posting an 84-78 mark and finishing third in the division (one game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks).

Let’s take a look at the star-studded Padres lineup and what is projected for them individually in 2025. If you’re curious, you can find a detailed article explaining what ZiPS is and how it works on FanGraphs, written by ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski.

San Diego Padres ZiPS: Position Players

After playing in just 102 games last season because of a stress reaction in his right femur, Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to have a monster year and be the statistical leader of the Padres with 5.9 fWAR.

Compare that to the 3.2 fWAR that the 26-year-old Tatis posted last season and that’s a very hopeful sign for how the Padres will help to make up for Profar’s absence in left field.

That 5.9 fWAR, by the way, would be the second-highest of his career, behind only the 6.8 fWAR he posted in 2021, a year when he finished third in the NL Most Valuable Player balloting.

Not far behind Tatis is his outfield colleague, Jackson Merrill, who wowed the league in his rookie season, posting 5.3 fWAR on his way to finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year race behind Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes.

How Merrill, who took over center field for the Padres on Opening Day and became one of their biggest offensive surprises, improves this season will be interesting to watch. ZiPS does have him taking a slight step back, posting 4.8 fWAR this season. However, if that’s all of a “sophomore slump” that Merrill endures, Padres fans will more than take that.

A Padres position to watch this season is shortstop, and Xander Bogaerts will have all eyes on him as he is expected to take back over the job after a one-year hiatus (thanks to the departure of Ha-Seong Kim to the Tampa Bay Rays).

The 11-year, $280 million contract Bogaerts signed before the 2023 campaign is still a head-scratcher among many in the Padres community, and Bogaerts has not lived up the money … yet.

Coming off a down 2024 where he battled injuries (and questions) and produced a 2.0 fWAR, projections show him at 3.3 this season. The Padres will take the improvement as they look for an increase from the 32-year-old Bogaerts.

Catcher looks to be a spot where the past and future could collide this season. Elias Diaz and Luis Campusano are expected to open the season behind the dish, with ZiPS seeing them combine for 0.7 fWAR. However, with top prospect Ethan Salas making his mark in the minor leagues and catching some of San Diego’s top pitchers already in spring training, it’s possible the 18-year-old phenom could make his debut this season.

ZiPS projects Salas to get 456 plate appearances this season, which seems very high. However, a midseason promotion and 200 or so plate appearances certainly seems in the realm of possibilities.

San Diego Padres ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Cease (who finished fourth in last season’s NL Cy Young voting) and King (who finished seventh) return to form what could be one of the National League’s top one-two rotation punches.

King (3.9) edges Cease (3.8) out for the top spot among all Padres pitchers in ZiPS projections, but perhaps more eye-opening is the Cease number as that would be a big step back from last season’s 4.8 (King produced 3.9).

For the Padres to compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Diamondbacks (both teams with strong rotations), Cease and King will need to be consistently strong. The pressure they face each outing to set the tone for Yu Darvish, Pivetta, Hart and others will either produce diamonds or cracks in San Diego’s postseason hopes.

Darvish, entering his age-38 season, will be a pitcher to watch in San Diego in 2025.

Projected for 2.2 fWAR this year, that would double what he posted last season when he made just 16 starts. Darvish’s health and productivity in the middle of the rotation will be one of the understated keys to San Diego’s potential success this year.

Flipping to the bullpen, closer Robert Suarez is another name with trade rumors swirling around it. The 33-year-old right-hander logged a 2.77 ERA/3.49 FIP/1.046 WHIP and a career-high 36 saves in an All-Star season where he posted 0.9 fWAR. Projections show a slide back to 0.3 fWAR this year, with Suarez accounting for 28 saves.

Could any of these pitchers be on the move (as has been rumored in the winter) if the Padres’ plans go awry in the first half of the season? If San Diego finds itself too far out of the contention, don’t be surprised if Preller tries to pull a rabbit out of his hat and plan for future campaigns.

San Diego Padres ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Much like the ZiPS projections, PECOTA standings show the Padres finishing in the middle of the pack in the NL West in what will be a dogfight for postseason inclusion.

It’s a bit of a sobering thought for a team that, on paper, has so much talent but has advanced to the NL Championship Series just once this century.

Like many MLB teams, the Padres enter 2025 with questions. San Diego’s revolve around just how much of a gamble it was to let Profar walk and if the Pivetta signing will be the key to the Padres rotation being one of the best in the league from top to bottom.

How many tricks does Preller have up his sleeve if the Padres are within striking distance at the MLB trade deadline? The magician always seems to have something in the works, and ZiPS projections lean toward San Diego having plenty to play throughout the year in 2025.