2024 Magic Number Tracker: Counting Down to the MLB Playoffs
Breaking down the magic (and tragic) numbers for every team in the NL and AL postseason races.
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If things had gone as scheduled, the Major League Baseball regular season would have ended on Sunday, as all most teams played their final games at the same time to wrap up the 2024 slate.
Going into the day, three teams were vying for two spots in the NL Wild Card race, the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, and the Atlanta Braves.
The D-Backs played their Game 162, beating the San Diego Padres by a score of 11-2. Had they lost that game, MLB could have put a nice little bow on their season and got everyone ready for the playoffs that await.
Instead, three teams fates are hanging in the balance, as the Mets and Braves get ready to play a doubleheader to make up the two games that got rained out due to the hurricane last week.
We originally published this article back on September 18th, and have been updating it each day as teams slowly but surely secured their playoff fates. We know now the Dodgers and Phillies have received a first-round bye, with Los Angeles earning the distinction of having the best record in baseball for the 2024 season at 98-64.
In the other league, the Yankees and Guardians have secured the top two spots, as the Yankees finished with the best record in the Junior Circuit, winning an AL-best 94 games.
In the Wild Card round, we now know that the Houston Astros will square off against the Detroit Tigers, putting manager A.J. Hinch up against his former team. And the Royals will play against the Baltimore Orioles.
The Royals earned the fifth seed over the Tigers by beating the Atlanta Braves on Sunday. In doing so, they kept the Braves from securing their playoff fates before the doubleheader today.
Before we get to what’s at stake, let’s take a look at the playoff bracket as presently constructed, 24 hours before the playoff officially being on October 1st.
In the National League, you can see two red circles that are blank showing the final two Wild Card spots.
We see the Padres have been locked in the top Wild Card, having won 93 games, the third-best mark in the National League. The Milwaukee Brewers are sitting in the No. 3 seed, having won the NL Central with an identical 93-69 record.
The Arizona Diamondbacks currently have the fifth-most wins in the NL, ending their season with an 89-73 record. But suddenly their playoff fates are completely out of their own hands.
What begins for them on Monday is likely to be one of the most painstakingly frustrating days, as they watch a doubleheader where they need one of these teams to get swept.
This means the D-Backs have finished their season and their Magic Number is still at 2.
Just think about that for a second.
The Mets and Braves enter the day at an identical 88-72 record. They each own the tiebreaker over the D-Backs, so if they split the doubleheader both of them will make the playoffs.
This makes their Magic Number pretty simple to understand. For both the Mets and the Braves, they are at that Magic Number of 1, where they just need to win and they are in.
Now whoever wins the first game to clinch is not going to roll over in the second game, as these are still hated division rivals. But the second game will certainly be managed differently with one team having already secured their playoff fate, and the other staring down the barrel of elimination.
Here’s all the outcomes for today:
- Mets and Braves both win: Braves take the No. 5 seed, earning the second Wild Card seed for beating the Mets in their season series. The Mets will head right back to Milwaukee, where they will face the Brewers again. The D-Backs will be eliminated.
- Mets win, Braves lose: the Braves will be eliminated, Mets get the second Wild Card and will face the San Diego Padres, the D-Backs are in and face the Brewers.
- Braves win, Mets lose: the Mets will be eliminated, the Braves will play the Padres, and the D-Backs will play the Brewers.
The stakes have never been more clear. Now let’s see which two teams get to try to create playoff magic, and which team’s Magic Number never gets to 0. Leaving them heartbroken as their season comes to an abrupt end.
Original Article:
A magic number represents the number of games a team needs to win – or their closest opponent needs to lose – for that team to clinch a playoff spot, a division title, a first-round bye, or home-field advantage in any given postseason series.
Tracking your favorite team’s magic numbers is a nice and easy way to follow their postseason chase down the stretch. If their magic number is still in the double digits with less than two weeks remaining in the season, you know it’s going to be a close race.
On the other hand, once their magic number gets down to one or two, it’s time to start preparing for a champagne celebration.
Unfortunately, it’s not always easy to find magic numbers. They aren’t listed on the standings at MLB.com, and anything you see on social media will quickly become out of date.
With that in mind, Just Baseball has put together this simple Magic Number Tracker that we’ll update every weekday for the rest of the regular season.
Are you curious how soon the Mets might clinch a Wild Card spot? Do you need to know how close the Royals are to securing their first postseason berth in nearly a decade?
We’ve got you covered.
Note: The tiebreaking rules introduced in the latest CBA can sometimes complicate magic numbers. If something seems off, it’s likely due to the various effects of multi-way ties and tiebreakers.
See below for tables with the head-to-head records of all contending teams in the NL and AL. For a more detailed breakdown of tiebreaker rules and potential tiebreaker scenarios in 2024, click here.
National League Magic Numbers
Magic numbers as of games on September 28, 2024.
At this point, there are only three teams left fighting to make the playoffs in the National League. Two of the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and New York Mets will make it, but due to the postponed Mets-Braves games this week, the season could extend until Monday, a day before the Wild Card Round is set to begin.
If the Mets or Braves still need to get enough wins to make the playoffs, they will play a doubleheader to decide which two teams grab the final Wild Card spots. Let’s look into the host of possibilities still in play as the season draws to a close.
Atlanta Braves Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 1
The Atlanta Braves have won their first two games of their series against the Kansas City Royals, while the Mets and D-Backs have both lost their first two games this weekend. This has taken Atlanta from third in this race, into the driver’s seat.
With their next win or a D-Backs loss, the Braves will make the playoffs as they have the tiebreaker against Arizona and are currently even with them in the win column.
The most wins the D-Backs can get to is 89, so even if the Braves lose on Sunday, they can win either game of their doubleheader on Monday against the Mets and will still make the playoffs.
New York Mets Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 2 over the D-Backs
By dropping the first two games of their series against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Mets are no longer the favorite to grab a playoff spot, but they are sitting in a better situation than Arizona because they have the tiebreaker over the D-Backs.
If the Mets win on Sunday and the D-Backs lose, the Mets will make the playoffs.
If the D-Backs win on Sunday, the Mets will need to win two more times over their final three games to make the playoffs. That would either be a win on Sunday and a doubleheader split or if they lose on Sunday, they’d have to sweep the doubleheader.
Arizona Diamondbacks Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 3
The Arizona Diamondbacks lost again on Saturday, marking their fifth loss in their last six games. They currently sit at 88-73, with one game left to play.
As already laid out, the Mets and Braves are both sitting in a better spot than the D-Backs, because they still have more games to play with. Still, the D-Backs could clinch on Sunday if they won and both the Braves and Mets lost.
This would set up a situation where the Braves would be sitting at 88 wins, needing one more to clinch, and the Mets would still be stuck at 87 wins, needing two more to clinch. In this instance, only one of the Mets or Braves could reach 89 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies Magic Numbers
- To clinch a first-round bye: 0
- To clinch the NL East: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
The Phillies took two of three games at home facing the Chicago Cubs this week. With their first win, the Phillies clinched the NL East, with their second win to close the series they clinched a first-round bye in the playoffs.
After the Dodgers won on Saturday, there is officially nothing left for the Phillies to play for. They will be the second seed behind the Dodgers in the NL playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Magic Numbers
- To clinch a first-round bye: 0
- To clinch the NL West: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
For the 11th time in the last 12 seasons, the Los Angeles Dodgers have once again clinched first place in the NL West. Now at 97-64, the Dodgers have clinched the best record in baseball and have secured home-field advantage for the rest of the postseason.
Milwaukee Brewers Magic Numbers
- To clinch the NL Central: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
The Brewers have clinched the NL Central title and a spot in the 2024 postseason bracket.
San Diego Padres Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
The San Diego Padres won their 92nd game on Friday night, beating their division rival, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their win, combined with the Mets’ loss, has officially locked up the top Wild Card spot for the Padres. They will host a series in San Diego next week.
National League Head-to-Head Records for Tiebreakers
| TEAM | vs. Braves | vs. Brewers | vs. D-backs | vs. Dodgers | vs. Padres | vs. Mets | vs. Phillies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | — | 2-4 | 5-2 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Brewers | 4-2 | — | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 5-0 | 2-4 |
| D-backs | 2-5 | 4-2 | — | 6-7 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Dodgers | 5-2 | 4-3 | 7-6 | — | 5-8 | 4-2 | 1-5 |
| Padres | 4-3 | 5-2 | 7-5 | 8-5 | — | 2-5 | 1-5 |
| Mets | 5-6 | 0-5 | 4-3 | 2-4 | 5-2 | — | 6-7 |
| Phillies | 6-7 | 4-2 | 3-4 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 7-6 | — |
American League Magic Numbers
Magic numbers as of games on September 28, 2024.
New York Yankees Magic Numbers
- To clinch a first-round bye: 0
- To clinch the AL East: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
The New York Yankees finally beat the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, winning by a score of 10-1 as they officially clinched the AL East and a first-round bye.
Beyond clinching the division, the Yankees have also clinched home-field advantage through the ALCS.
The Yankees were the first AL team to clinch a spot in the 2024 postseason.
Cleveland Guardians Magic Numbers
- To clinch a first-round bye: 0
- To clinch the AL Central: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
By beating the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians clinched a first-round bye.
Baltimore Orioles Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
By beating the Yankees on Tuesday night, combined with a loss from the Minnesota Twins, the Baltimore Orioles officially clinched a playoff spot. After losing to the Yankees in the final game of their series this week, the Orioles are locked into the Wild Card.
By beating the Twins on Friday night, the Orioles officially knocked them out of the playoffs and locked in the rest of the field. The Royals and Tigers will be the other two Wild Card teams, and with the win, the Orioles will host one of them in a Wild Card Series next week.
Houston Astros Magic Numbers
- To clinch the AL West: 0
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
After losing the first game of their final series against the Seattle Mariners, the Houston Astros were able to take care of business on Tuesday night, beating their rival to clinch yet another AL West title.
Kansas City Royals Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
The Kansas City Royals lost to the Braves on Friday night, but they still clinched a playoff berth as the Twins lost and can no longer catch them in the race.
At this stage, all that the Royals can play for is seeding. The Royals trail the Tigers by one game in the standings but they own the tiebreaker over Detroit. Whoever finishes with the fifth seed will play the Orioles in the Wild Card round, while the sixth seed will face Houston.
Detroit Tigers Magic Number
- To clinch a playoff spot: 0
After winning a hard-fought series in Baltimore over the weekend, the Detroit Tigers found themselves in a playoff spot entering the last week of the season.
Coming down from their celebration of clinching a playoff berth, the Tigers lost on Saturday, but the Royals did as well. If the Tigers win on Sunday, they will finish at the fifth seed in the AL playoff field and will face the Orioles in the Wild Card round.
Minnesota Twins Tragic Number
- Elimination number: 0
With a 12-25 finish over their last 37 games, the Minnesota Twins fell out of a playoff spot and were officially eliminated from contention on Friday night.
Seattle Mariners Tragic Number
- Elimination number: 0
The Seattle Mariners have been eliminated from postseason contention.
American League Head-to-Head Records for Tiebreakers
| TEAM | vs. Astros | vs. Guardians | vs. Mariners | vs. Orioles | vs. Royals | vs. Tigers | vs. Twins | vs. Yankees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | — | 2-1 | 5-8 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 4-2 | 2-4 | 1-6 |
| Guardians | 1-2 | — | 4-2 | 4-3 | 5-8 | 7-6 | 10-3 | 2-4 |
| Mariners | 8-5 | 2-4 | — | 2-4 | 3-3 | 1-5 | 2-5 | 3-4 |
| Orioles | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | — | 4-2 | 2-5 | 4-0 | 8-5 |
| Royals | 3-4 | 8-5 | 3-3 | 2-4 | — | 7-6 | 6-7 | 2-5 |
| Tigers | 2-4 | 6-7 | 5-1 | 5-2 | 6-7 | — | 6-7 | 2-4 |
| Twins | 4-2 | 3-10 | 5-2 | 0-4 | 7-6 | 7-6 | — | 0-6 |
| Yankees | 6-1 | 4-2 | 4-3 | 5-8 | 5-2 | 4-2 | 6-0 | — |