Do the Astros Have What It Takes To Pull Off an Impact Trade?
The Astros might not have the pieces they need to bring in a difference-maker ahead of the trade deadline.
The Houston Astros have been one of the most successful MLB organizations over the past 10 years. Two World Series rings and eight straight playoff appearances from 2017-2024 placed them in the top tier of teams in baseball before a step back in 2025, finishing 87-75.
Excluding the COVID season, the Astros won at least 90 games for six straight seasons before dipping below that threshold each of the last two. It’s a trend that is likely to continue this year, as the Astros sit at 46-50 at the time of writing this article.
An aging team trending in the wrong direction often has to pick a path. Sell off pieces and enter some variation of a retool/rebuild, or go all in for what might be a last opportunity. While moving Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Bryan Abreu, and others might make sense, Houston is reportedly interested in being buyers instead of sellers.
Only a few games back in the AL West and even closer to a Wild Card, their focus is on extending their winning ways, not putting them in the rearview. I appreciate their willingness to buy and chase what has become the standard, but do they have the pieces to bring in impact players?
Stats updated before games on July 10.
Do the Astros Have Impactful Assets?
Anytime trade discussions start, the first conversation revolves around the farm system. Which young players are valued highly and can be moved to rebuilding teams in exchange for veteran players? A process we all are familiar with. High-end prospect or solid system depth can swing trades, but the Astros don’t have much of either.
According to Baseball America’s updated farm system rankings, the Astros rank 26th. Various other outlets have also placed them in the bottom five in the league. While rankings are not always accurate, Houston has been near the bottom of the rankings for a few years, and the lack of consistent young talent coming through the system is concerning.
Depending on which top 100 list you prefer, you might see Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens on the back half of the list, but here at Just Baseball, Aram Leighton (our top 100 creator) did not include any Astros.
In many ways this is to be expected. When you win at the rate the Astros have, not only are you selecting late in the draft, but you are often moving pieces to round out a roster year after year, depleting the high-end talent from your farm system.
Although they are lacking a bona fide prospect cemented across top 100 lists, that doesn’t mean they don’t have anyone of intrigue or value.
Bryce Mayer (24, Double-A) is a big righty who has proven to be a great find in the 16th round in 2024, with legit strikeout stuff and close proximity to reaching the big leagues.
Walker Janek is a catching prospect who is well regarded but dealt with an injury this year. Joseph Sullivan has an intriguing skill set, Albert Fermin has a lot of upside but is in rookie ball, and Miguel Ullola has a nasty fastball/slider combo that could work well.
The issue is the majority of their prospects come with a fairly significant red flag. Whether it be legit swing-and-miss concerns, walking too many batters, or trending towards being a bullpen arm. Neyens (first round, ’25) is off to a hot start to his professional career, but will the Astros trade their best prospect at a position they will likely need in the next couple of years? I think they would be open to it.
If prospects are not going to be the best way to add juice to the team, then you have to turn to young major leaguers. We often see these deals as a way to clear a roster spot while also saving your prospect capital. Problem is, the Astros’ young and moveable players aren’t carrying a ton of value.
Zach Dezenzo‘s minor league success has yet to translate to the majors in now his third different stint with the Astros, albeit a small sample. Zach Cole‘s power has been decimated the past two years, and the swing and miss is to the point where he’s more likely to be a waiver wire pickup than a targeted trade piece.
Brice Matthews hasn’t shown enough to prove he is a major leaguer, and like so many across the organization, striking out at alarming rates is holding him back.
Shuffle through the various 27 y/o or younger arms and tell me which one’s teams are trying to acquire with urgency. Sure, AJ Blubaugh is a fine multi-inning option out of the bullpen, but those rarely bring much back in return.
Alimber Santa is another bullpen piece that’s intriguing but not carrying enough value to pull off a significant move. Ethan Pecko might land someone who can help, but probably not a name that truly changes the team’s trajectory.
Houston could use upgrades to the outfield and bench, but most importantly, this team needs pitching. The easiest path to acquiring legit pitching help would be by moving Paredes, who is on an expiring deal and is a key piece of the lineup.
Not only would this move create a lineup hole, but finding a team that needs someone of Paredes’ profile while also having an extra pitcher lying around is difficult. Seattle? That might be the only fit.
All of this to say the Astros do not have a clear path to solving their deadline needs. Either you take from your major league roster, or you have to package a number of prospects from a system struggling with depth to acquire what might be a rental arm.
Final Thoughts
Houston could look at their current situation and know their run is coming to an end. Why not drain what’s left of the farm system and take an aggressive approach the next year or two and hope for the best, knowing what’s on the other side will be ugly regardless of this deadline?
Is it a safe move? Absolutely not. I’d even call it reckless. To me, they should move off a few pieces in order to boost their farm. But, I can understand doing everything you can to make the most of what remains of the Altuve/Alvarez/Hader/Brown years. You either make difficult decisions now and kick-start the rebuild, or you throw a Hail Mary.
Right now it’s looking like the receivers are all running deep.
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