MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Thursday, August 22, 2024
That felt good. After our loss on the Phillies, we learned that both the Phillies and Braves couldn’t hit, so we bet the under. It cashed with relative ease, with a final score of 3-2. The only reason it was a mini-sweat at the end was the threat of extra innings that could have pushed it over, but the Phillies bullpen did their job as predicted.
Today, we have a big underdog. I might be down on the year, but that won’t stop me from playing lines I think are off. That’s what I see here between the Orioles and the Astros.
2024 Record: 103-108 (-9.16 U)
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 7:08 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (5.20 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (3.10 ERA)
Corbin Burnes is not pitching like his usual self. Following Burnes will be a bullpen that’s shown cracks in the armor lately. The Astros offense has also been better than the Orioles lately. Add all of this up, and the Astros are a live dog today.
Corbin Burnes has been a top-five pitcher in baseball for a while now, and he’s still certainly in the conversation, but he has yet to look like himself lately. The pitch that propelled him to superstardom, the cutter, is not what it once was. He’s throwing it harder this year with more spin, but it’s the worst-performing cutter of his career.
The whiff rate on that pitch is down, and opponents are hitting .254 against it. He’s used to opponents hitting close to .200, with the cutter being a big-time strikeout pitch. Not so much anymore, and now he’s rocking the lowest strikeout rate of his career.
I’m not saying he’s fallen off by any stretch; I’m just saying there are cracks in the armor, and the Orioles are priced as if he’s the runaway CY Young. The Astros saw him already this year, scoring four runs over seven innings. The Astros offense has also been cooking lately.
Since August began, Houston has been the ninth-best offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitching. If we look at the past two weeks, the Astros have a 133 wRC+ against righties, tied for the second-highest mark in baseball, only trailing the Diamondbacks. The Astros can hit anybody when they are hot; if Burnes is not at his best, he’s vulnerable.
Beyond Corbin Burnes is a bullpen that saw a lot of use in their series against the Mets. I also need more confidence in this Orioles team to close it out late, as Seranthony Dominguez took over the closers’ role and is off back-to-back rough outings. Since July 1st, the Orioles bullpen has a 5.36 ERA, ranking 26th in the league. Even if Burnes throws well, I could see a late-inning comeback by Houston today. They should be live all game unless it gets truly out of hand.
Spencer Arrighetti has upside today. Since August 1st, the Orioles have a 96 wRC+ against lefties, which is below average and ranked 17th in that span. Over the last two weeks, it’s much of the same, as they sit with a 95 wRC+, ranking 18th.
The Orioles have never seen him before; not one player on their team has recorded an AB against Arrighetti. That tends to lean towards an advantage for the pitcher, as it may take one time through the order to figure him out. The young right-hander has also looked solid over his last three starts, sitting with a 3.38 ERA against the Rays, Red Sox, and White Sox. He’s the kind of pitcher who can dominate an elite offense but get shelled by the White Sox.
He’s a wild card, but all his ERA predictors say his 5.20 ERA should come down. His SIERA and xERA are both 3.96, meaning he should pitch like a guy with a four ERA moving forward. He has an outstanding strikeout rate but needs to limit the walks.
If he can be moderately effective, the Astros are live because the bullpen has stepped up in a big way. They have the fifth-best bullpen ERA since July 1st, at 3.20. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu are fully rested and should be able to get an inning from Seth Martinez (3.04 ERA). The Astros’ middle guys are not in a good rest spot, so if Arrighetti can get us six innings of three-run ball, we are in this game.
The Astros have lost two straight but are still winners of seven of their last ten games. The Orioles have lost six of their last ten games. Houston is playing baseball objectively better right now, and the only real edge the Orioles have today is at home, and they have a better starting pitcher.
The Astros cannot be this big of an underdog. We are live throughout the game as long as Arrighetti doesn’t get destroyed. Take the Astros down to +125.
The Pick: Astros ML (+140) Risk 1 Unit
These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.