Opening Day was a success! I only had one bet: the Blue Jays/Cards F5 over 3.5, which hit in the first inning. We set the tone for the season, so let’s keep the momentum rolling into today.
Houston Astros F5 -0.5 (+100) 1U to Win 1U
The Houston Astros were utterly shut down yesterday by last year’s AL CY Young runner-up Dylan Cease. He threw 6.1 innings with 10ks while only allowing one run. I expect the Astros bats to bounce back strong today.
Lance Lynn will be taking the mound for the White Sox today. He regressed last season and finished with a 3.99 ERA. He throws a fastball 59.3% of the time and that’s a recipe for disaster vs this Astros lineup. Since 2020, in three starts vs. the Astros, Lynn went 0-3 with a 12.06 ERA.
Like Manoah yesterday, Lynn was another pitcher who relied heavily on the shift. He got left-handed batters to hit into the shift at a top 10% rate last year. I expect Lynn to have a ton of early struggles this season and will happily target him versus a team that’s already hit him exceptionally well in the past.
On the bump for the Astros is Cristian Javier.
The Astros finally let Javier become a full-time starter last season, and he rewarded them by pitching to an elite 2.54 ERA. His 2.43 xERA was even better. He was fantastic at home for the Astros, where he pitched to a 2.26 ERA. Last season, he limited RHB to a .147 AVG and a .290 SLG. That is important to note because the White Sox’s lineup is right-hand dominant, and they have 6 projected RHB in the lineup today. Javier is one of the nastiest pitchers with an elite fastball/slider combo. If he is healthy, I expect him to be a finalist for the AL Cy Young this season.
Give me the Astros to win through the first five innings.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk free $1000 bet.
All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.