Successful day! We won on the Padres after they put up seven straight runs to beat the Phillies in a must-win game. Juan Soto did his job on the player props side, but we were left with a loss on Kyle Schwarber. If Kyle Schwarber didn’t steal a base, we would have been 3-0. That’s life.
Today, we have Thursday Night Football and Game 2 of the ALCS. It’s the equinox of sports, as almost every major sport has something scheduled today. We will be dipping our toes into the NFL and MLB on the podcast.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 227-186 (55%) +42.09 Units
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: 7:37 pm EST
Luis Severino (RHP, Yankees) [7-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 112 K]
Framber Valdez (LHP, Astros) [17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 194 K]
The Astros won a tight one yesterday, 4-2, after a tie for most of the game before back-to-back home runs sealed the deal. The Yankees had a small comeback at the end, but ultimately the back end of the Astros bullpen did its job and closed it out.
It was an excellent start for the Astros, but they likely would win game one behind Justin Verlander against Jameson Taillon. It was a bit closer than people thought, especially considering the Astros had to use three of their best bullpen arms. The Yankees were smart with their bullpen; they did not use any of their high-leverage arms.
Game two should be another very close game, as we have two talented pitchers who have faced each other plenty over the years as these two rivals have battled it out in the playoffs. Both pitchers have successfully opposed each other, but I believe one team has a slight edge.
Luis Severino will get the ball for the Yankees, who has looked like his old self since returning from injury. He ended the season on a high note; in his last 16 innings, he only allowed three earned runs on five hits. He was solid in his lone playoff start against the Guardians, allowing three earned runs over 5.2 innings.
Severino has faced the Astros several times and pitched well; this season was no different. While neither of his starts resulted in wins, he threw 12 innings and allowed five earned runs with an opponent batting average of .186. As you can see from the screenshot above, the quality of contact in a large sample against the Astros is not robust against Luis Severino.
The Astros, during the regular season, demolished lefties. They finished second in OPS in baseball against left-handed pitching at .783. They still hight right-handed pitching, but the OPS drops to .727. Jameson Taillon pitched well, all things considered, and I believe Severino can throw just as well.
Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros, who put together an incredible streak of quality starts. It’s tough to get more than three runs against him; he keeps the ball on the ground and can get out of any jam with runners on base. With that said, he could be in for a rougher outing today.
He faced the Yankees this season back on June 23, throwing six innings and allowing three runs on two hits. Almost all the production came on a Giancarlo Stanton three-run home run, which will be essential for the Yankees, lifting the ball for extra-base hits. The Yankees have been fantastic overall against left-handed pitchers this season, putting up a .768 OPS versus a .745 OPS against right-handed starters.
The Yankees also had a rest day for their better bullpen arms. Trivino was the only quality arm to get the nod yesterday, but, he threw just seven pitches. After Severino, the Yankees will have Holmes, Loisaga, Trivino, and Peralta ready. The Astros bullpen is elite, and while they did throw three of their high-quality arms, it’s hard to find a less-than-ideal arm in their bullpen.
This game will be close, but I’m going with the underdog in this matchup. I think the Astros should be -120 on the money line, and since they are sitting at -155; it’s a no-brainer for me.