Tigers Opt for Quantity Over Quality at the Trade Deadline

After weeks of discussing all of the big names who could carry the Detroit Tigers through the playoffs, they landed a slew of names no one was talking about instead. Rather than adding a flashy bat or a shutdown closer, they brought in a group of guys who really don’t make you feel one way or another. Just fine.

Detroit added Chris Paddack, Kyle Finnegan, Rafael Montero, Charlie Morton, Randy Dobnak, Codi Heuer, and Paul Sewald. They also moved Matt Manning, who was DFA’d, to the Phillies in exchange for a minor league outfielder.

Feel let down? Uninspired? Disappointed? Hell, I’d go as far as saying the team was cowardly. If that’s how you are feeling, I can see why. Not often do the Tigers have a season as good as this one, and to watch the front office sit on their hands was disappointing.

For what it’s worth, I agree. I would have rather seen them be more aggressive, especially with adding a bat. I see a scenario in which this team’s offense could hold them back for a stretch. But, with so many new arms now in the system, could this strategy actually work?

At Least They Have Options

One team adding this many arms is not something you usually see at the deadline. I had not really considered the whole “let’s have tryouts” approach in the middle of August, but it might not be the worst idea.

We don’t have time to break down every single pitcher, so let’s get a few notes out of the way. Dobnak is simply minor league depth, as is Heuer. I wouldn’t expect much, but I trust the Tigers’ eye for talent and development team enough to be okay with them taking a shot there.

Sewald and Montero are both past their prime. Sewald, who is currently injured, might not have many innings left in him, but he can still get a strikeout. He’s a depth addition that costs next to nothing besides money, so why not have him as insurance? Montero started the year off well but has been declining. Both arms have lots of experience and prior success, but neither is a sure thing at this point.

Kyle Finnegan, who was born in Michigan, comes with the best recent track record. He’s recorded 20 or more saves in each of the last three seasons, with a career ERA of 3.66. His expected stats haven’t always been as kind, but he has cut his home run to fly ball ratio in half this year, which partially explains why his 3.61 FIP is a career-best, even though his 4.38 ERA is a career worst.

Finnegan offers back-end experience, a high groundball rate, and durability.

The pair of starters fit into a similar bucket as the relievers above. The are veterans with prior success, lots of experience, and a limited ceiling. You can read my full thoughts on Paddack here, so I’ll focus on Morton.

Morton was absolutely awful to start the year in Baltimore. Since returning to the rotation on May 26, he has made six quality starts sandwiched between one blow-up outing in which he allowed seven runs. He’s finally found his curveball, which has led to better results, although the walks still scare me.

Sure, he’s been better. But I’m not going to sit here and tell you I have any confidence in Morton down the stretch. It is a move that the Tigers knew would be cheap and one that is not changing the trajectory of this team. Maybe Troy Melton’s move to the bullpen is what will have the most impact.

On a more positive note, the Tigers really only need a few of these deals to work out. If one of the added starters pitches well and they get two good bullpen arms out of the bunch, I’d say it is a win. Considering how many of these pitchers have had success in the past, thinking three total could find it again is not crazy.

It’s also not a high percentage play. Acquiring David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, or one of the other bigger-name closers would have been a high percentage play. Without a doubt, the Tigers improved their depth, but I’m not sure if they raised their ceiling.

No Help for the Offense

Scott Harris and the rest of the front office put a lot of trust in the current lineup. At the very least, I thought they would have brought in another righty bat instead of relying on Jahmai Jones and Andy Ibáñez to lift the team versus lefties.

I’m sure we all saw the Eugenio Suárez rumors, but the Tigers were not willing to beat what I thought was a lighter-than-expected package from Seattle.

Another approach could have been to add an outfielder, like Harrison Bader, Ramon Laureano, or a different mid-level righty bat. Instead, Matt Vierling/Parker Meadows/Wenceel Perez will simply have to be better.

I have highlighted the number of Tigers players playing above their career norms a number of times this year. The fact is, most of those players are likely to regress back to the mean, which we have already started to see – especially with Javy Báez.

Adding a veteran bat, even if it was just a bench piece, felt necessary. The quality of depth is concerning once you realize Justyn-Henry Malloy, Jace Jung, and other unestablished players are likely to be the first recalled in the event of an injury.

Of course, I have to mention what this could mean from a more fun perspective. The chance of Kevin McGonigle – Just Baseball’s new no. 1 overall prospect – joining the Tigers this season is more likely than I thought. McGonigle has hit the ground running in his first 14 games with Double-A Erie, slashing .302/.387/.491 with eight walks and nine strikeouts.

The Tigers are not typically ones to rush prospects through, but McGonigle is not a typical prospect. He’s currently our top-ranked prospect for a reason. His feel to hit and advanced approach make me believe he could handle major league pitching to a level that could actually help this team.

Then again, counting on a 20-year-old to help propel your offense is not usually a recipe for success. Putting that much pressure on a young player is simply unfair. But, I have to say, I’d love to see if it would work.

Final Thoughts

I thought the Tigers should have done more. I think the strategy of having as many darts to throw at the board to fix the bullpen is one that could work, but I’m not interested in low percentage plays when your team is flirting with the most wins in baseball.

Simply not addressing the offense in any manner, from an impact bat to depth options, is risky. The Tigers are one injury away from having another fringe major leaguer on the team, of which they already have plenty.

I’m not a prospect hoarder, but I am glad they did not move one of their top four. I see Max Clark and McGonigle as massive parts of the future. Bryce Rainer being injured didn’t help his value, so holding on made sense. Moving Josue Briceno and Thayron Liranzo would not have ruined my day, but I’d rather keep them.

Detroit’s approach will not silence any front office doubters. Not immediately, at least. But they had better be right. The Tigers are in the midst of their best season in a very long time, and a deadline this cautious felt more like a coin flip than a statement.