2025 NCAA Baseball Super Regional Preview: Florida State vs. Oregon State

In Oregon State’s first year without a conference, they received a lot of hate for being “RPI merchants.” While they dropped their first game of the regional to four-seed Saint Mary’s, they would steamroll the remainder, going 4-0, outscoring their opponents 50-6.

Florida State boasts two of the best pitchers in the country in Joey Volini and Jamie Arnold, with freshman breakout Myles Bailey posing a significant threat to the Beavers at the plate. The Seminoles swept their regional, outscoring their opponents 21-7 over three straight wins.

Let’s break down one of the best series of the weekend. Before we do, there is one critical piece to note. Florida State Head Coach Link Jarrett will not be in the dugout for game one, as he was ejected in the last game of the regional.

Series Overview

Florida State Seminoles

• Record: 41-14 (17-10)
• RPI: 9
• SOS: 23

Oregon State Beavers

• Record: 45-13-1
• RPI: 8
• SOS: 39

Team Deep Dives

Florida State Seminoles

We can’t ignore the fact that Florida State rolls out potentially the best rotation in all of college baseball, including a potential first-overall pick in Jamie Arnold. The southpaw and #4 ranked prospect on the Top 300 for the 2025 Draft holds a 3.12 ERA over 78 innings with 110 strikeouts and just a .206 batting average against.

Left-handed pitcher Joey Volini has dominated as well, racking up 97 strikeouts in 80 ⅔ innings with a 3.68 ERA, and Wes Mendes rounds out with 90 strikeouts in 77 ⅓ innings with a 4.66 ERA.

Where I think the Seminoles can get tripped up is the bullpen, as the bulk of their bullpen arms that have significant innings and appearances are above their team average in ERA (4.63), and we’ve seen them struggle late in games.

The offense for the Seminoles has been ridiculous this year, with six of their seven qualified hitters batting over .300, four of whom have over 15 home runs.

ACC Player of the Year and Golden Spikes Finalist Alex Lodise leads the way, slashing .405/.473/.736 with 18 doubles, 18 home runs, and 67 RBI, truly a difference maker in every facet of the game.

Gage Harrelson has been a massive addition for their offense coming in from Texas Tech, and true freshman Myles Bailey has 17 home runs to his name with some of the best raw power you’ll see across the country.

I believe this offense has the potential to compete with the Beavers’ pitching and should be comfortable scoring runs, despite the depth they roll out.

Oregon State Beavers

Before we dive into the roster, let’s point out some essential pieces. Oregon State is historically strong at home, nearly unbeatable at times, with a rich postseason history. Florida State will be going cross-country, something they had to do in ACC play, but Corvallis is a bit different than Stanford.

Next, we’re bringing back Florida State Head Coach Link Jarrett, who will not be in the dugout for game one, as he was ejected in the last game of the regional. We know how important coaching and decisions are this time of year.

Finally, Oregon State will be rolling out six to seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, which may provide some advantage against the pair of southpaws that have been so good for Florida State’s rotation, giving way to potential early exits.

While their schedule was unimpressive at times, it was clear that not being in a conference limited what the Beavers could do this season. While they were slow starters, it’s clear the offense, top to bottom, is firing on all cylinders.

While the Seminoles have Jamie Arnold, the Beaves have shortstop Aiva Arquette. He is the #5 prospect on the Top 300 for the MLB Draft and has led the way on both sides of the ball, boasting a 1.138 OPS with 16 doubles, 18 home runs, and 65 RBI.

Gavin Turley is right behind Arquette in terms of production with a 1.133 OPS with 12 doubles, 18 home runs, and 64 RBI this year, as the Beavers have five hitters with 12 or more home runs.

Third baseman Trent Caraway has seriously heated up, going eight-for-fourteen in the regional with four home runs and nine RBI. If he can continue his run, it will make for a terrifying lineup as he finds himself at #167 on the Top 300 prospects for the MLB Draft.

On the mound, the Beavers have five potential starters and a ton of bullpen pieces that can provide length and quality innings. 

One of the best freshman arms in the country, Dax Whitney has been unreal in his first stint in college baseball, racking up 101 strikeouts in 66 ⅔ innings with a 3.78 ERA and a .220 batting average against.

Rthan Kleinschmit, the ace of the staff, has 95 strikeouts in 80 ⅓ innings, holding a 3.70 ERA, as opposing batters are hitting just .203 off him.

The Beavers then have the chance to roll out a collection of Nelson Keljo, Wyatt Queen, and Eric Segura, all of whom have bounced between high-leverage roles and starting.

Across the board, I see Oregon State as incredibly balanced, and the talent is undoubtedly there to battle the Seminoles in what should be some of the best baseball we’ll know all postseason.

Prediction

The bottom line is that these two teams’ rosters are pretty even, but there are more than a few reasons why Oregon State should be the favorite here. A 21-3 home record has to be respected, and with travel, the Seminoles will be at a disadvantage.

While Oregon State didn’t have a conference, they went 23-11 against Q1 and Q2 competition, so we aren’t questioning their ability to rise to the occasion against elite competition.

Oregon State owns the wRC+ advantage on Florida State, posting a 150 compared to Florida State at 141. While Florida State has more “well-known” names in the rotation, when we look at the overall data on these two staffs, it can be argued that Oregon State owns the advantage. The Beavers’ pitching staff ranks within the top 20 in ERA, WHIP, xFIP, and SIERA, while Florida State is behind them in all of those statistics.

The Beavers are more balanced than the Seminoles, and while they have Jamie Arnold, we have Aiva Arquette. There is plenty of value in this play, as the Beavers should not be the underdog in Corvallis.

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