Noah Cameron Is Making the Most of First MLB Opportunity

After making a surprising run to the playoffs last year, the Kansas City Royals entered the 2025 campaign with some raised expectations. The club has gotten off to a so-so start, sitting at 34-32 entering Sunday’s play, but they’re still only a game-and-a-half out of a Wild Card spot.

Sure, it’s still way too early to put much stock into the Wild Card race, but it’s worth mentioning because they’re nowhere close to a sunken ship.

While the offense (outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia) has sputtered, the Royals’ starting rotation has been outstanding. Entering Sunday’s action, the club’s starting pitchers were fourth in baseball in ERA (3.23) and ninth in FIP (3.68).

Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Michael Lorenzen have been the Royals’ most oft-used starters, but Ragans and Lugo both spent recent stints on the injured list.

Those stints on the shelf flung the door wide open for prospect Noah Cameron to step in and make the first few starts of his MLB career. When teams lose two of their top starters (basically ace and co-ace entering the year), many of them fall apart and lose their mojo.

That couldn’t be further from what happened with Cameron and the Royals.

He’s only made five starts, but they’ve been some of the more impressive career-opening starts we’ve seen from a hurler in quite some time.

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Noah Cameron’s Preseason Scouting Report

Cameron was the Royals’ No. 6 prospect according to Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton back in December. For more on the left-hander’s makeup as a prospect coming up through the ranks, here’s what Leighton had to say about Cameron:

Noah Cameron – LHP – (Triple-A)

Height/Weight: 6’3″, 220 | Bat/Throw: L/L | 7th Round (199), 2021 (KC) | ETA: 2025

A 7th round pick out of Central Arkansas in 2021, Cameron enjoyed his breakout season as a 24-year-old, setting career-highs across the board and only got better upon his second half promotion to Triple-A. There was a tangible uptick in stuff to validate the breakout as well, making him a potential option for the Royals heading into 2025.

Arsenal

Cameron overhauled his arsenal heading into the 2024 season paired with an uptick in velocity which unsurprisingly produced the best results of his career. His fastball velocity ticked up from 91 MPH on average to 92.5 MPH, while also eliminating nearly six inches of horizontal movement, giving his fastball more of a cut-ride action. His fastball went from a liability to passable, seeing his in zone whiff rate jump by 8% while slashing the hard-hit rate allowed by roughly 7%.

The best pitch for Cameron has always been his changeup, and with his more well-rounded arsenal in 2024, it performed as well as ever. He landed it for a strike more than 70% of the time with a swinging strike rate of 27%. Staying closed with his front side for a long time paired with his short-arm delivery makes it extremely difficult for hitters to differentiate the pitch out of his hand and the late fade makes it an in-zone whiff machine (37%).

Cameron tweaked his curveball heading into the 2024 season and added a cutter. The curve was previously a bigger pitch that averaged 78 MPH, making it both more difficult for him to land for a strike and an easier take for hitters. Now harder and shorter in the low 80s with slurvy action to it, Cameron upped his strike rate with the pitch by 12%, becoming his go-to secondary offering against lefties while still mixing it in more than 20% of the time to righties; opponents posted a batting average of just .160 against the pitch between Double-A and Triple-A.

The cutter has given Cameron another look at 89-91 MPH. He commands it well to his glove side, burying it in on the hands of right-handed hitters effectively and getting lefties to roll over. It would be a viable third offering, but with the big step forward he took with his curveball, the cutter is now an excellent fourth offering. It’s worth wondering if Cameron could benefit from adding a sinker to induce weak contact and bolster his ground ball rate a bit.

Outlook

An uptick stuff wise paired with a strong fourth option being added to the arsenal makes it easy to understand how Cameron was able to break out in 2024. He still fits the bill of a softer-throwing southpaw who mixes his offerings to keep hitters off balance, but his changeup and curveball should garner enough whiffs from hitters of both sides of the plate. He has the looks of an innings-eating back-end starter with enough upside to be a strong No. 4 option.

Delivering on His Potential

There were few pitchers in the Royals system that looked closer to big-league ready than Cameron did entering the year, but the roadblock the entire time has been just how he’d be able to find his way onto the roster.

The Royals have had one of baseball’s better starting rotations for the past few years, so it’s been apparent for a while that Cameron’s path to the bigs would only come at the expense of other arms going down with injuries.

The left-hander immediately made good on the club’s decision to bring him up once Lugo hit the shelf. He went six (and a third) innings in his big league debut, setting a bit of Royals history in the process.

Since then, he endured a short stint in the minor leagues, only to return and go no less than six innings in a start. Cameron also has yet to surrender more than one earned run in an outing. That gives him five appearances to kick off his career with six or more innings and one run or less allowed.

He joins Fernando Valenzuela (1981) as the only two pitchers in MLB history to do this through their first five career starts.

The one oddity the 25-year-old has run into is his complete lack of strikeouts. He punched out 10.4 batters per nine last year (and 11.1 the year before), but he’s only got 5.4 K/9 to kick off his big league career.

One possible explanation for this is simply that Cameron doesn’t throw any of his pitches all that hard. We’re living in an age where pitchers need triple-digit heat and/or fast, heavy breaking pitches that can keep the opposition off balance. Cameron’s got a five-pitch repertoire but his four-seam fastball averages around 91.7mph and the rest of his four offerings range from 80 to 87mph.

How Does He Stick in the Rotation?

It’s not clear how Cameron’s going to be able to stay on the big league club with the Royals. All five of their starters are healthy again, but it’s worth mentioning that Bubic is going to have his workload monitored as he makes a post-Tommy John shift from the bullpen back to the rotation.

Bubic has never thrown more than 130 innings at the big league level in his career. He’s 12 starts into his 2025 season and already sits at 75 (and a third). He leads the majors in ERA and HR/9, but the Royals need to handle him with some care as the schedule marches on.

This could result in some skipped starts for Bubic down the stretch, or even some abbreviated ones where he serves as a one- or two-inning opener who gives way to Cameron in a bulk, long-relief role. The Royals have a few different options at their disposal, and they’re going to have to seriously consider them if Cameron continues to shove the way he has so far.

Setting Himself Up Nicely For 2026

No matter which way you slice it, Cameron’s doing more than enough to earn himself a longer leash come next season. None of the current Royals starters are going to be come unrestricted free agents after the current campaign, but there are going to be some options to monitor.

Ragans, Bubic, and Wacha are all under control for multiple years. Lugo’s got a $15 million player option for the 2026 season worked into his contract, and Lorenzen has a $12 million mutual option in his.

Lugo, who’s closing in on his 36th birthday, feels likely to exercise that option. Lorenzen, 33, has a 5.12 ERA and looks basically nothing like the pitcher the Royals got from the Texas Rangers at last year’s trade deadline. The Royals are unlikely to pick up their end of the option unless the right-hander significantly turns his season around.

If Cameron continues to impress, Lorenzen’s chances of coming back to next year’s Royals go down to essentially zero. The team’s decision-makers have to already be viewing Lorenzen’s current rotation spot as Cameron’s and salivating because of it.

Closing Thoughts

Cameron came back up to the big leagues on May 17 and has been dominant ever since. In fact, he’s eighth amongst qualifying starters in ERA since then, and he’s also allowing the third-lowest BABIP and is third in the league in strand rate.

It’s not often we see young pitchers come up to the big leagues and be in complete control of all of his starts quite like this southpaw has been. Is it going to last for the rest of the year? Eh, maybe not. But for right now, it’s been a pleasure to watch and he’s ultimately doing nothing but helping his case for earning a spot in next year’s Kansas City Royals’ starting rotation.