Can the Royals’ Starters Help Them Pull Off an Upset?

The Kansas City Royals did it. They finally did it.

From 2016-23, no team in Major League Baseball won fewer games. The Royals were one of only two teams that never finished above .500 in that time. (The Angels were the other – and their streak continues.)

Just last season, the Royals finished 56-106. That was somehow only the second-worst record in the league (hey there, Athletics), but the Royals tied their franchise record for most losses in a season. The 2023 campaign wasn’t pretty.

Still, there were a few bright spots in all that darkness last year, most notably Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans. With those two to build around, GM J. J. Picollo was surprisingly aggressive over the offseason.

He was especially focused on the pitching staff, adding veteran arms Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, and Will Smith for a combined $90 million.

While Stratton and Smith have struggled, Lugo and Wacha have been pivotal to Kansas City’s success in 2024.

Ragans, Lugo, and Wacha have combined for a 3.15 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 559.2 innings pitched. They have produced 12.9 FanGraphs WAR. That’s one heck of a three-headed monster.

Meanwhile, Brady Singer has bounced back after a difficult 2023 campaign to look like an excellent number four starter. Thanks largely to those four, the Royals have had one of the best starting rotations in baseball this season.

Their collective 3.55 ERA ranks second in MLB. So does their 16.7 fWAR.

Indeed, the Royals might have the best postseason rotation of any team in the American League. And that’s going to be critical, because neither their offense nor their bullpen is nearly as strong.

The Royals’ bats finished the 2024 season with a 96 wRC+, 10th in the AL. Their 735 runs scored rank sixth.

Outside of Witt, this team doesn’t have much offensive firepower. Salvador Perez has been slumping lately. Vinnie Pasquantino is still questionable for the Wild Card Series. The rest of the lineup won’t exactly give opposing pitchers any nightmares.

Meanwhile, the Royals’ bullpen ranks 10th in the AL with a 4.13 ERA this season. Some of their underlying numbers are a little better – and they’ve been genuinely good in September – but this isn’t a bullpen that’s going to lead a team to the World Series.

Lucas Erceg is talented, but he isn’t a shutdown closer. Kris Bubic isn’t a proven set-up man. Daniel Lynch IV can’t keep up his current 21-inning scoreless streak forever.

Like I said, the arm barn isn’t terrible. But it’s not going to be this team’s strength.

Above all else, the Royals are counting on Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, and Singer. The Royals are at their best when their starters are at their best.

All four of those pitchers have thrown absolute gems this year. We know what they’re capable of.

Perhaps even more important, they’re all consistent. All four of them can go deep into games. Singer has the highest ERA of the bunch at 3.71.

These are pitchers who can keep the Royals in the game for the first six innings of any contest. If the offense can manage just a few runs and the bullpen can hold things down for just a few innings at a time, it might be enough.

The starters will be especially important against a team like the Orioles, who the Royals are set to face in round one.

Baltimore has had one of the strongest offenses in the game all year. Their bats have a 115 wRC+ on the season, which ranks third in MLB; their 786 runs scored rank fourth.

What’s more, the O’s will be coming in hot after sweeping the Twins this past weekend by a combined score of 22-6.

If the Royals can topple the Orioles, their next task will be the Yankees. Led by superstars Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Bronx Bombers have been the best offensive team in the AL this season. They rank first in the Junior Circuit in runs, home runs, and wRC+.

Once again, the Royals will need their starters to be sharp. Due to the quick turnaround between the Wild Card Series and ALDS, Kansas City might need to ask Singer to start Game 1. It’s a good thing they have such a capable number four starter.

That’s not to say Singer won’t be at a disadvantage against Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole. Of course he will. But the Royals would just need to stay alive in Game 1, after which they would have the pitching advantage for the next several games.

The Yankees have a pretty talented rotation, but I’m taking Ragans, Lugo, Wacha over Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt.

Things won’t ever be easy for the Royals this October. It’s the playoffs, after all. The Orioles and Yankees represent two major challenges, and those would only be their first two opponents on the road to the World Series.

But this isn’t April anymore. The Royals have proven their success in 2024 is real. It has been earned.

With Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way at the plate and Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Brady Singer forming one of the strongest playoff rotations in the league, the Royals just might be able to pull off an upset or two (or four).