Was Trading PCA the Biggest Mistake of the Steve Cohen Era?

This weekend, a first-place New York Mets team will play host to another first-place team, the Chicago Cubs. These two teams have looked the part of powerhouses to start the season, with both ranking atop our recently updated MLB Power Rankings.

The matchup between two budding favorites in the National League should make for great theater on national television over the weekend, especially with the stage of Citi Field, where the Mets have played great baseball to start the season.

When the series begins, one of the fascinating subplots that will be discussed is the emergence of a former first round pick of the New York Mets. An energetic 23-year-old budding superstar, who is off to a blistering start to the 2025 season.

The only problem for the Mets is that their former top prospect is playing on the other side, as Pete Crow-Armstrong will be patrolling center field with a Cubs jersey on.

What Led the Mets to Trade Their Former 1st Rounder?

Pete Crow-Armstrong was drafted by the New York Mets back in 2020, at the height of the COVID shutdown. PCA was selected 19th overall out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, California. The Mets signed him to a $3.4 million bonus and he began his pro career in 2021.

Unfortunately for PCA and the Mets, their prized new top prospect injured his shoulder just six games into his first season in Port St. Lucie and got surgery that prematurely ended his season.

Despite the injury, PCA carried a lot of trade value when the Mets entered the trade deadline back in 2021, as teams had not forgotten about the dynamic high school player who was a first-round talent just a year ago and was only 19 years old.

Before we get into the trade that sent Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs, it is important to understand where the Mets were at as a franchise at the time.

Back in 2021, the Mets were in year one of the Steve Cohen era.

Cohen had purchased the Mets in November of 2020, and quickly went to work on building up a franchise that had be mismanaged for many years compared to other big market teams. Instead of taking a step back to try to slowly rebuild, the Mets were ready to push their chips in and win right away.

The first big trade was a great one, as the Mets dealt top prospect Andres Gimenez, then-young shortstop Amed Rosario and two other prospects to the Cleveland Guardians for Francisco Lindor. They then minted Lindor with a $341 million contract extension.

Through the first half of that first season, the Mets were in first place, carrying a four-game lead in the NL East into the All-Star break. That charge to first place was largely led by two-time Cy Young Jacob deGrom, who pitched to a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts in 2021.

Not only was deGrom incredible on the mound, he also was outstanding in the box, as the former shortstop was hitting .364 with six RBIs and four runs scored in the final year of pitchers hitting in the National League. Had deGrom finished that season, there would have been serious MVP buzz for the Mets ace.

Unfortunately in the second half, things started to go wrong for the Mets.

In the first game out of the break, Francisco Lindor went on the IL for the first time of his career, straining his oblique.

A few weeks later, the Mets were still maintaining their four-game lead in the NL East, and were looking to make a big splash with their new owner, hoping for a playoff run in year one. This led the Mets to explore a deal with the Cubs for Javier Baez, an impending free agent who could fill in for Lindor in the short term, then slide over to second base once he returned.

The idea of pairing the two teammates from the Puerto Rican National Team was a tantalizing one for the Mets, who were led in the front office by Zack Scott, who was originally hired to be the assistant GM under Jared Porter before he got fired.

Scott wanted Baez, but the Cubs insisted on getting PCA back in the deal. To sweeten the pot, the Cubs even threw in a controllable arm in Trevor Williams, and that was enough to get a deal done.

On July 30th, 2021, 13 months after being selected by the Mets in the first round, Pete Crow-Armstrong was traded to the Chicago Cubs.

Why Teams Always Lose Trades for Rentals

There are only a few ways that trading a top prospect for a rental does not come back to blow up in a teams face. The first one is obvious: if the prospect does not pan out.

The other one is more immediate: does the trade help you win now?

If the Mets had made the playoffs in year one of the Steve Cohen era, maybe the trade is looked at a little more fondly now. If fans had memories of Baez and Lindor up the middle in the infield playing big games in October, they could stomach seeing PCA shine as a Cub. Or at least better stomach it.

Instead, deGrom went down with an injury and the Mets season seemingly cratered upon impact.

They went from eight games over at the time of the trade, to eight games under by the end of the season, and watched the Braves come from behind to take the NL East, and then ride the wave all the way to a World Series title. Tough break.

The actual players they got back in the deal were not the problem, as Baez was actually fantastic in his brief cameo in blue and orange. In the offseason, Baez cashed in on his post-deadline success signing a six-year, $140 million deal with the Detroit Tigers.

Meanwhile, Williams stuck around after the 2021 season and played a key role on a Mets team that won 101 games and made the playoffs the following year. During his year and a half with the Mets, Williams pitched to a 3.17 ERA.

Baez and Williams performed as well as any team can hope from the expiring assets of a deadline trade. But the expiring part is always the catch.

Now, the Mets have nothing to show for the once Baez-now PCA trade four years later. The Cubs, on the other hand, have one of the best center fielders in baseball, and team control of him for the next six years.

Is PCA a True Star in Center Field?

After missing 2021 with the injured shoulder, Pete Crow-Armstrong returned to the field in 2022 and started to make a name for himself in the Cubs’ farm system. Across Low-A and High-A, PCA hit .312/.376/.520, with 46 extra-base hits and 32 stolen bases in 101 games played.

Along with the strong offensive production, PCA started to showcase the skills that made him a first-round draft pick, which is his electric athleticism out in center field. Going into 2023, not only was PCA a consensus top 100 prospect, but he was featured no lower than No. 30 by most major outlets.

The 2023 season brought more of the same production from PCA, just at the upper levels of the minors in Double-A and Triple-A, posting a combined .876 OPS, with 20 home runs and 37 stolen bases. In September, PCA was called up to the big leagues for his first cup of coffee in the show.

Last year marked the first extended run that PCA would get in the big leagues. The results were mixed. A .237/.286/.384 slash line with 10 home runs in 123 games left a lot to be desired. With that said, he was excellent in center field and his offense got better as the year wore on.

After posting a dismal 64 wRC+ and .582 OPS in the first half, PCA hit .262/.310/.425, with a .736 OPS and a 104 wRC+ in the second half. Seven of his 10 home runs came in the second half. This led to some hope that he could at least be a league-average bat, which paired with his elite defense would make for a very solid starting center fielder.

Instead, this year PCA is looking like an All-Star, and someone who will shoot up our ranking of the top 10 center fielders in baseball next year (he entered the year ranked No. 7).

Through 38 games this season, Pete Crow-Armstrong has nearly matched his home run total from last year, as he already has nine. That is tied with Pete Alonso for the 6th-best mark in the NL.

PCA is hitting .265/.303/.537, with 21 extra-base hits, and 27 RBIs. He’s tied for the fourth-most runs scored in the NL, and his 12 stolen bases rank third.

After posting a 2.7 fWAR in 2024, PCA is already up to a 2.2 fWAR in 2025. That fWAR is the second-best mark in the NL behind Corbin Carroll, as PCA is in a four-way tie with Alonso, Geraldo Perdomo, and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Who knows if PCA can sustain this level of production throughout a full 162-game season, but even getting another hot streak like this at some point in the year will make him a shoo-in to be at least a five-win player, if not better.

Players who can contribute on both sides of the ball from the center field position are a rare commodity in the game today. The Cubs are thrilled to have him in their control for a very long time.

What Would the Mets Look Like If They Had PCA?

Over the last two years, the Mets have relied largely on glove-first center fielders with Tyrone Taylor and Harrison Bader being the guys last year, and this year, Jose Siri joined Taylor in a timeshare in center field.

Since Siri went down with a fractured tibia, the Mets have been playing Jeff McNeil in center field, looking to get some offense out of a position where they haven’t gotten much since moving Brandon Nimmo into a corner last year.

An outfield of Nimmo, PCA, and Juan Soto might just be the best in baseball. That trio has hit 23 home runs so far this year, with Nimmo and Soto each being behind PCA right now with seven home runs apiece.

Tyrone Taylor is a really solid outfielder who has been worth 3 OAA and 3 DRS to start the season. The difference is that PCA is currently grading out as the best outfielder in baseball, with 8 DRS and 8 OAA.

If the Mets never traded PCA, they would have their center fielder of the future in place, and suddenly top prospects like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Nick Morabito and even the newly drafted Carson Benge would be more expendable at this year’s trade deadline.

Now, if the Mets need to add reinforcements at the deadline, they will have to be cautious to deal any of those prospects, as each could figure into the center field mix over the next few years. And the reality is that none of them have quite the same ceiling as PCA.

The Cubs’ breakout star is already the best defensive center fielder in the game, and is currently on pace to hit 38 home runs and steal 51 bases.

The next time Mets fans are upset that their team didn’t do more at the deadline, remember that buying rentals to win now is a dangerous game that you can really regret down the line.