Remember the Name: Murf Gray Looks Like a Star in the Making

Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates had many areas that they needed to address during the MLB Draft. With their offense ranking dead last in nearly every category, the Pirates were expected to go all-in on acquiring high-end bats early in the draft.

However, once the actual draft rolled around, the plan of attack changed quite dramatically. The Pirates were lucky enough to have superstar prep RHP Seth Hernandez land in their lap with the sixth pick in the draft, an opportunity far too good to pass up. They then targeted another prep RHP with high upside in Angel Cervantes in the second round, and although he didn’t end up signing, the upside was too good not to take a chance on.

The Pirates ended up targeting their first bat with their third selection in the draft: Fresno State standout third baseman Murf Gray. At the time, this pick was a little bit of a reach, as Gray wasn’t ranked inside the top 100 on most rankings, let alone 73rd overall.

Fast forward a year later, and the Pirates look like geniuses, as Gray has quickly become one of the top performers in the entire draft last season, looking like a steal every step of the way. He’s looking more and more like a can’t-miss prospect who could be capable of having a big-league impact sooner rather than later, which is everything the Pirates could have hoped for.

Let’s dive in and break down the things Gray is doing well so far in his minor league career and what makes the former second-rounder such an intriguing prospect.

Soaring Through the Lower Levels

After signing with the Pirates following the 2025 MLB Draft, Gray would have to wait until 2026 to play in his first professional game. Despite having to wait a little while, Gray did not keep the franchise waiting to see positive returns, as he immediately tore apart Low-A pitching.

Across his 38 games for the Bradenton Marauders, Gray slashed .359/.436/.606 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, and an astounding 173 wRC+. In addition to these tremendous marks, Gray posted a ridiculous .469 wOBA, a number that no other hitter in the Pirates minor league system could even come close to.

Going another step forward, a lot of hitters tend to see their strikeout rates balloon slightly, as it’s a natural part of adjusting to better arms in professional baseball. The same could not be said for Gray, as his strikeout rate sat at a more than respectable 18.1%, and his walk rate of 9% sang a similar tune.

After seeing this unbelievable start to his professional career, the Pirates decided to promote Gray and challenge him in High-A. There’s a solid argument that they even could’ve pulled the trigger a little bit sooner, but alas, Gray was on his way to Greensboro.

Once he arrived in High-A Greensboro, Gray continued slugging, not wasting much time before making an impression. In fact, he went deep in the very first game he played at the level, and it was a towering shot.

Through the first 10 games of his High-A career, Gray has hit a ridiculous five home runs, slashed .282/.378/.667 with 12 RBI and a 152 wRC+. Even though he’s seen a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, Gray is walking more than ever, as he’s drawn five walks during his first 39 at-bats (11.1% walk rate).

This is the highest walk rate Gray has ever posted, even dating back to his two years at Fresno State, showing his continued growth despite more challenging arms.

Combining his performance through both Low-A and High-A, Gray has posted the fifth-highest wRC+ (169) for qualified hitters from Low-A and Triple-A. Only 14 qualified hitters across these same guidelines have posted a wRC+ of 165 or better, which shows how truly spectacular Gray’s time at the plate has been.

Neither Gray nor the Pirates could have drawn up a better start to the season, as he’s quickly surging through the lower levels and blowing expectations out of the water wherever he plays. At this pace, it may not be a stretch to say he’ll see Double-A before the end of June.

Positive Underlying Data

On the surface, Gray’s metrics tell an incredible story of a player who’s breaking out and truly taking his game to the next level. Digging a little deeper through the publicly available Statcast numbers from his time in Low-A, we can confirm that his performance is for real and more than something that’s boosted by luck, which is the case for a lot of other minor league breakout hitters.

For starters, the biggest takeaway from this data is that Gray truly tore the cover off the baseball while at the level, as his exit velocity numbers are quite encouraging. Gray posted a max exit velocity of 114.3 MPH, which would put him in the top six percent of major league hitters if he were in the big leagues.

In fact, only 27 qualified hitters in the major leagues have either tied or surpassed this threshold, and it’s a better mark than a plethora of superstars around the league. For example, Gray has surpassed the max exit velocities of Juan Soto, Munetaka Murakami, Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr., and more.

On top of that, Gray posted an impressive barrel rate slightly north of 12.2% and a hard-hit rate greater than 45% as well. To put this in perspective, his barrel rate is exactly the same as Rays slugger Junior Caminero, and his hard-hit rate matches Braves stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.

Encouragingly, this came without significant whiffs as well, which is a huge indication of the type of player he can be in the near future. Gray whiffed just 22.8% of the time while in Low-A, including just 11.1% against four-seam fastballs. While this number leaps when it comes to his performance against sliders, this is normal and something to monitor in the near future.

Aside from his whiff rate against sliders, the only other area that could produce some red flags is his chase rate, which came in at 29.9%. This is another thing to keep a close eye on moving forward, but it’s still a number that’s manageable as long as Gray continues hitting at this excellent rate overall.

All things considered, Gray’s underlying numbers confirm what we know: He’s shown the foundation to be a legitimate power threat at the next level and, simultaneously, a menacing presence in the batter’s box. As long as he keeps the chases in check and continues to hone in his approach against sliders, he’s in a very good spot moving forward.

What Could the Future Look Like for Gray?

Seeing both the raw production and the underlying data, a few major questions remain: Is this breakout sustainable, and if so, what could the future look like for Gray?

After seeing the few positive Statcast numbers that we have publicly available, I feel very confident in saying that his breakout is both sustainable and legitimate. Oftentimes, players who come out of the gate as hot as Gray tend to cool down as they’re challenged at the next level, but I don’t believe this will be the case for Gray.

If Gray continues at this pace, he’s certainly capable of hitting 25 or more home runs in the big leagues someday, and he could quickly become a cornerstone fixture at third base for the Pirates. If he does reach this level of production in the big leagues someday, he’d be the first Pirates third baseman since Pedro Alvarez in 2013 to surpass 25 home runs and just the eighth player overall to do so.

Even if it’s still a little too early to tell exactly how good he could be in the near future, this is a breakout that shouldn’t be taken lightly, as he’s shown the foundation to be a very, very good major leaguer someday soon. The next big challenge for Gray will be continuing to hit once he reaches Double-A Altoona, which is notably the first place where hitters begin to separate themselves in this organization.

It’ll be a fun story to follow throughout the rest of the season, as Gray has a chance to join Esmerlyn Valdez and become the second Pirates hitter in the last two years to become a household prospect after being relatively unknown by the majority of fans before the start of the season.