Zebby Matthews Is the Latest Top Prospect To Join the Twins’ Rotation

Zebby Matthews made his MLB debut for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, tossing five innings of two-run ball against the division rival Kansas City Royals.

The 24-year-old struck out five – including a pair of swinging strikeouts against Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez – and walked none. He would go on to collect his first big league win as the Twins trounced the Royals 13-3.

Matthews wasn’t overpowering, inducing only six whiffs (18% whiff rate) on the evening. His opponents hit the ball hard against him, with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and .491 xwOBA on contact.

Still, he was efficient and effective, requiring only 77 pitches to get through five frames. His four-seam fastball averaged 95.1 mph – not his best stuff – but his cutter averaged 91.1 mph and his slider averaged 86.0 mph.

Surely, Matthews has plenty of room to improve. Yet, all things considered, it was a promising debut for the top prospect.

Zebby Matthews: From Mid-Draft Selection to Top Prospect

The Twins chose Matthews with the 234th overall pick of the 2022 draft. However, despite his relatively late-round selection, the 6-foot-5 right-hander burst onto the top prospect scene after a strong season in 2023.

Over 22 games (20 starts) between Single-A and High-A, Matthews pitched to a 3.84 ERA and 3.67 FIP. He turned heads with his mid-90s fastball and impeccable control, walking just 3.5% of the batters he faced.

Matthews has continued to excel across three levels in 2024. He boasts a 2.60 ERA over 18 games (17 starts) between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. He has maintained his high velocity and is missing more bats with his secondary stuff; his 30.5% strikeout rate is almost as impressive as his 1.9% walk rate.

Thanks to his plus cutter and slider, Matthews has been equally effective against left and right-handed opponents in the minor leagues. The righty has held same-handed hitters to a .554 OPS and opposite-handed hitters to a .536 OPS.

Simply put, there aren’t many young pitchers with Matthews’ combination of power, control, and consistency. That’s precisely why he has such a high floor – and why it’s easy to imagine him contributing valuable innings to the Twins rotation straight away.

Matthews Joins Fellow Rookies in Twins Rotation

The Twins could certainly use the help. Chris Paddack hasn’t pitched since the All-Star break. Joe Ryan might be out for the season with a Grade 2 teres major strain.

Minnesota has also been without Anthony DeSclafani all season. He underwent elbow surgery in March.

Meanwhile, former top prospect Louie Varland has ridden the options bus back and forth between Triple-A and the majors all year. He has a 6.46 ERA over 30.2 IP in 2024.

Thus, Matthews will become the third rookie in the Twins rotation, joining David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson. He’ll hope to settle in just as nicely as his fellow St. Paul Saints alumni. And he’s certainly off to a good start.

Festa, our No. 93 overall prospect, made his MLB debut back in June. He struggled during his first two starts, but after a brief return to Triple-A, he came back firing at the end of July. Over his past four outings, he has pitched 17.2 innings with 25 strikeouts and a 2.04 ERA.

Woods Richardson, a second-round pick in the 2018 draft, was once a highly-regarded pitching prospect himself. Yet, he lost his shine from 2021-23 as his fastball velocity waned and the rest of his numbers responded poorly.

In 2024, however, his four-seam velocity is back up to a respectable 93.2 mph, and he is enjoying much better results. He still doesn’t throw hard, but he’s throwing hard enough for his plus command and strong secondaries to get the job done.

With a 3.78 ERA and 3.84 xERA over 20 starts, Woods Richardson looks like a mid-rotation mainstay in Minnesota.

Thanks to a breakout performance by Simeon Woods Richardson and, more recently, a steady showing from David Festa, the Twins rotation has stayed the course this season, despite several issues of injury and underperformance.

However, losing Joe Ryan (3.60 ERA, 3.1 fWAR) for a prolonged period – and possibly the rest of the regular season – is the toughest blow yet. The Twins will hope that Zebby Matthews is a capable substitute. Time will tell if Matthews is up to the task.

For more on the latest Twins prospect to make his MLB debut, here’s what Aram Leighton wrote about Zebby Matthews on Just Baseball’s latest Top 100 Prospects list:

65. Zebby Matthews – RHP – Minnesota Twins

Height/Weight: 6’4″, 245 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 8th round (234), 2022 (MIN) | ETA: 2025

Drafted in the eighth round out of Western Carolina as a durable, strike-throwing right-hander, Matthews has seen his stuff jump multiple ticks in 2024, giving him as much helium as any pitching prospect in baseball.

Arsenal

Now sitting 95-97 MPH with his fastball, Matthews can still put it wherever he wants, locating to all four quadrants with enough ride to pick up whiff within the zone. His arm action is short and a bit pushy, but he does a good job of using the momentum of his 6-foot-4, 240-pound frame to generate plenty of force towards home plate, and his short stroke seems to help him consistently throw strikes.

Matthews features both a cutter and slider that have reaped the rewards of his uptick as well, now averaging 90 MPH with his cutter and 85 MPH with his slider. His cutter is his preferred secondary offering against lefties, boasting such a good feel for it that he can tie them up inside, sneak through the back door, or bury it at the bottom. His ability to locate it makes it a viable third pitch against righties too, mixing in about 20% of the time to same-handed hitters as well.

Previously throwing more of a sweeper in the low 80s, Matthews mid 80s slider features sharp gyro break, tunneling well off of the fastball and cutter. The action of the pitch has made it easier for Matthews to command, spotting it for called strikes when he is behind in addition to it being a great put-away pitch for righties. He will mix in a below-average changeup that he does not have much of a feel for.

Outlook

While Matthews will need to show that he can hold the jump in velocity through the 2024 season, it appears as though the Twins unearthed another pitching gem in the later rounds. Through his first six starts of the 2024 season, Matthews struck out 43 batters while walking zero. It’s impossible to argue against the results and the data backs up the breakout. The floor is extremely high because of Matthews’ plus command, but with above-average stuff, he looks like a high-probability big league starter.