MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Tuesday, August 13, 2024
SWEEP! Nice 2-0 day yesterday. The Twins 4.5 Team Total at +105 was one of the easiest winners of the year, cashing in the second inning. We also took the under between the Cardinals and Reds, and that got worrisome early. Spencer Steer mashed two home runs to put the Reds up 6-1 in the fifth, but I knew the bullpens were in a good spot; we just had to wait it out. That we did, and no more runs were scored.
Back on the saddle today with two picks. Let’s keep it going.
2024 Record: 98-103 (-8.33 U)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo (2.72 ERA) vs. Zebby Mathews (— ERA)
We are running back a similar formula to yesterday. We have a pitcher due for regression facing off against an elite offense against righties that’s swinging the ball well. On the Twins side of the mound, we are tailing a rookie making his debut, and it should be a good one. The Twins have the clear bullpen advantage as well, so at this price at home, we have to back Minnesota.
Seth Lugo is in a similar spot that Brady Singer was in yesterday. He’s been pretty inconsistent lately, putting up a 4.78 ERA in July, then he threw an eight-inning dominant performance against the Tigers, and then he got shelled by the Red Sox.
He’s also one of these pitchers with wide gaps between their ERA and underlying metrics. His 2.72 ERA is fantastic, one of the league’s best, but his 3.95 xERA is in the 53rd percentile. That’s slightly above average. Every other ERA predictor feels the same: 3.45 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, and 4.05 SIERA. My favorite pitcher stat, SIERA, is the low man on Lugo, and I see why.
He’s allowing harder contact than the average pitcher this season, and his ground-ball rate isn’t good enough to hedge that. His 21% strikeout rate is in the 38th percentile, below the league average. He does an excellent job filling the zone, but his 98 Stuff+ tells me it’s not that nasty. By watching him, his stuff is not good enough to hold down a 2.72 ERA.
Especially against the Twins. I spoke about it in yesterday’s article; they are the number two offense against righties at home this season and are top five among every vital metric over the last few weeks.
Lugo has faced this Twins offense twice already, and credit to Lugo, he’s been fantastic from a results standpoint. His first start of the year was a six inning shutout against them. His next start was a six inning, one run performance. However, what I know about the Twins is that when they are hot, you ride the hot streak. They weren’t swinging the bat like they are now. For example, Brady Singer threw a seven inning shutout against the Twins earlier in the year, and look what happened to him yesterday.
Lugo has racked up 67 PA against this Twins’ current roster, and the contact quality doesn’t match the results. While he’s only allowed one run, Twins bats have a .360 xwOBA, a .485 xSLG, and a .291 xBA. I don’t think Lugo gets destroyed like Singer, but six innings of three-run ball is the range I think he’ll be in.
Zebby Mathews is an unknown, as he’ll be making his first career start. I’m very intrigued with Mathews, as he’s the minor league leader in K-BB.
He was recently added to our top 100 prospects. Here is a summary from that article:
Matthews has expanded his repertoire by adding three new pitches that have helped him keep hitters guessing when they’re in the box.
The 6’5″ 225 lbs righty has yet to struggle in pro ball. The 24-year-old recently got promoted to Triple-A but has made only four starts since then.
In 55.1 innings of work at Double-A, Matthews posted an absurd 2.9% walk rate to pair with an elite 30.1% strikeout rate en route to posting a 1.95 ERA.
His six-pitch-mix offers his four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and the recently added cutter, curveball, and sinker. He’s shown the ability to command each of these for strikes and is currently generating a 21% swinging strike rate on his gyro-spinning slider.
Matthews’ blend of stuff and command is about as good as it can get for a pitching prospect.
We all know about these home/road splits for the Royals. They have a 108 wRC+ at home versus an 88 wRC+ on the road. Facing righties on the road, the Royals have an 84 wRC+, which ranks 27th in the league. Royals bats, in general, have been putting up a 127 wRC+ against righties since the All-Star break, but they still don’t stack up to Minnesota.
The Twins have the bullpen advantage, as Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands, and Griffin Jax are available. They could also go to Josh Winder to fill the middle innings if Mathews doesn’t look great and keep us in it. I love the Twins bullpen here.
I’m higher than the market is on Matthews, and with how well the Twins are swinging it and how the bullpen stacks up, I would take the Twins to win to -130.
The Pick: Twins ML (-105) 1.05 Units
Player Props
Hunter Greene Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-165), Under 6.5 (+120) Risk 0.5 Units on both
When we took Dylan Cease to win the CY Young, I brought up how I think Hunter Greene will start to regress. Unfortunately, Cease didn’t hold up his end of the bargain against the Marlins, but Greene did struggle like I said.
His underlying ERA predictors say he’s outperforming his ERA. My favorite, SIERA, tells me he’s headed for a 3.80 ERA. The most alarming one, especially today, is his 4.19 xFIP. xFIP normalizes HR/FB rate, so basically, he’s due to give up some long balls. I could see that happening today in Great American Smallpark against an offense showing a power stroke.
But this is about strikeouts. I think Greene struggles a bit today, which lends itself to not racking up strikeouts. While he does have a 34.6% strikeout rate against this Cardinals team, I don’t see him exceeding six strikeouts in this one.
He had six strikeouts the last time he faced the Cardinals. They’ve also seen him plenty of times, so they know the plan now. They are also doing an excellent job of limiting strikeouts against righties.
Since the All-Star break, they have a 19.6% strikeout rate, the sixth lowest in the league in that span. Over the last two weeks, this falls to an 18% rate, the third lowest in the league. Recording eight strikeouts is a tough ask, even for a pitcher as good as Hunter Greene.
The Reds bullpen is also ultra-rested. It was rested yesterday, a big reason we were on the under, and only Jakob Junis pitched after Abbott. So, they don’t need to push Greene. They also have an off-day on Thursday, so they may be more inclined to go to the bullpen, knowing they’ll get more rest in two days.
I bet under 6.5 as my first bet, but I saw a juiced 7.5 pop, and I also bet that. You can stick to 6.5 if you want or go in on both with me. If you want to pivot because of a price change, I am okay with Cardinals ML in this spot; I think Greene struggles.
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Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.