It’s been a tough year. I can hang my hat on our MLB futures, which are doing well, but the day-to-day picks have been subpar. I will keep doing the research and try my best to give us the best chance of winning daily.

2024 Record: 100-107 (-10.91 U)

Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers @ 2:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Pablo Lopez (4.67 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (2.79 ERA)

The Twins have won the first three games of this four-game set. It’s tough to sweep a four-game series, especially on the road. It’s not as if the Twins have dominated this series; the combined score of the first three games is 12-7. The Rangers have more hits in this series and a higher xBA, but the Twins have brought more power and timely hits.

Tyler Mahle may find a little extra motivation against his former team today. Overall, he’s looked solid since returning from injury against good competition. He threw five innings of one run ball against the Astros in his first outing, then allowed two runs on just three hits in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox in Fenway.

It’s early, but his stuff looks similar to last year, where he put up a 3.16 ERA in 25 innings. He’s often injured, but he’s a good pitcher when he’s healthy. So far, he’s done an exceptional job of keeping the ball off the barrel, which has resulted in a tiny 32% Hard-Hit rate and a 2.67 xERA.

He’s facing off against a Twins offense that’s posted a .698 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road this season. It’s a far cry from the .798 OPS they’ve posted at home. The Twins offense is very good, so if we are going to fade them, I definitely prefer doing it on the road, as they are 34-29 in road games this season compared to 36-24 at home.

Another reason I think Mahle can be effective today is he’s tough on left-handed bats. The Twins lineup is loaded with them, but Mahle can meet them head-on. Lefties have posted a .566 OPS against him this year, a .458 OPS last year, and a .601 OPS the year before that. Over his career, lefties are hitting .231 against him versus .260 for righties.

If this Twins lineup had Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton, I might like Mahle less here. However, with those two still out, the only righties Mahle could see today are Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, Austin Martin, Kyle Farmer, and Jose Miranda, but it’s unlikely they put all of them in the lineup today. I project five innings of two-run ball for Mahle in this game.

Pablo Lopez has yet to pitch well against the Rangers. He faced them this season already and got torched for six runs in 4.2 innings. He also faced them last year; they had ten hits and scored five runs in five innings. He allowed five runs in five innings on five hits the year before that. Through 78 PA, the Rangers’ current roster is hitting .348 against him. I project six innings while allowing three runs for Lopez today.

If I’m backing this Rangers offense, I must be confident that the big boys in the lineup have good matchups. Corey Seager is 4-6 with three home runs against Lopez. Josh Smith, Nate Lowe, and Adolis Garcia combine 8-22 (.363) with a double and a home run. The thick of the lineup should be able to hit Lopez as they have every time they’ve faced him.

The Twins bullpen is strong, but the four best have all pitched twice in this series so far. Duran, Jax, Alcala, and Sands have all seen plenty of work, and if they do come in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers finally jump on them. The only three bullpen arms that are rested is Caleb Thielbar (6.09 ERA), Trevor Richards (4.66 ERA), and Steven Okert (4.36 ERA).

It’s difficult to predict how Rocco Baldelli will manage this bullpen today, but they do start a series against the Padres tomorrow. Zebby Mathews will get the ball, so I assume he’ll want his bullpen fresh. We shouldn’t see any top arms if the Rangers can build a lead.

While the Rangers are 12 games under .500 this year, they are 31-30 at home. At a plus number, it’s a reasonable price to back them to avoid the four-game sweep at home.

The Pick: Rangers ML (+100) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on Bet