Zack Wheeler Isn’t Ready To Give Up His Ace Status

Zack Wheeler was working on yet another Cy Young-worthy campaign in the 2025 season before his year was unfortunately cut short due to venous thoracic outlet syndrome.

The Cy Young Award has evaded the Phillies ace over his illustrious tenure in Philadelphia, but there’s no question he will go down as one of the greatest signings in the club’s history.

The Phillies signed him to a five-year contract worth $118 million prior to the 2020 season. Many saw this deal as an overpay at the time, but for a pitcher who has posted a 2.85 ERA in seven seasons in Philadelphia, getting him in red pinstripes at that price turned out to be the greatest bargain the Phillies ever made.

Wheeler’s time with the Mets left a lot to be desired, but he’s established himself among the game’s best pitchers in his time in Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, he was shut down at the back end of the Phillies 2025 season and was set to miss a chunk of the beginning of the 2026 season. Considering his age and the nature of the injury, many questioned if he’d ever play again or return to his previous level.

Wheeler continued his rehab into the first month of the big league season and returned to a struggling Phillies squad in late April.

The Return

Many in the past have failed to return to form following thoracic outlet syndrome. Wheeler has reclaimed his title as an ace alongside Cristopher Sánchez and brought stability to the front of the club’s rotation.

With such an injury, many would question his ability to maintain his velocity. Wheeler, though, is actually sitting at the same average velocity as he was in 2024, when he was the Cy Young runner-up. His average fastball sits at 95.1 mph.

While he missed about a month of the regular season, his numbers still reflect his ace status. In 62.2 innings pitched, he currently sits at a 2.01 ERA, having fanned 62 hitters.

Wheeler’s output has been tremendous. He currently sports career-lows with a 0.846 WHIP and 5.5 hits per nine. The Phils ace is allowing baserunners at a career-best rate, and stranding nearly 91% of them with a 90.7% left on base percentage.

One aspect of Wheeler’s game that hasn’t been up to his standards is his strikeout production. The former NL strikeout king is punching out just 8.9 hitters per nine, his lowest mark since the 2020 season.

However, there is reason for optimism on the strikeout front for the three-time All-Star. Wheeler is generating a 35.9% chase rate, the highest in his career. If he is able to find a slight uptick in his whiff percentage, which is his lowest since 2022, he may see his strikeout numbers increase.

The Underlying Numbers

The advanced numbers are promising for Philadelphia’s ace. Wheeler sports a 3.25 xFIP and a 3.02 xERA according to FanGraphs. While these numbers suggest some slight luck, he is still producing at an elite level. A slight jump in ERA is likely, but Wheeler is still clearly ace material.

The former San Francisco Giants first-round selection boasts a 3.36 SIERA this season, slightly higher than his 3.32 SIERA posted in his last season as the Cy Young runner-up.

The most impressive part of his campaign thus far is the effectiveness of his fastball. Wheeler currently sits in the 97th percentile in fastball run value, per Baseball Savant.

While Wheeler’s sinker and cutter have been solid pitches for him, his four-seamer has been one of the best pitches in baseball. Opposing hitters are currently batting .110 and slugging just .228 against the pitch. For a guy coming off a serious injury that forced him to have a rib removed, that’s a great early return.

Wheeler has, however, struggled to effectively use his breaking pitches this season. The 6-foot-4 righty sits in the 44th percentile in breaking run value, following a 2025 season in which he finished in the 97th percentile in that category.

A Different Kind of Dominance

Over the past few seasons, Wheeler has been known for his ability to generate whiffs. Since returning from his injury, he has become a different type of pitcher.

Older pitchers often have to reinvent themselves in the bigs, and Wheeler’s age, coupled with a serious injury, has pushed him into new ways of helping his team win every fifth day.

He is finding other ways to be dominant. The Phillies icon is producing the second-lowest line drive percentage of his career, while inducing his highest groundball rate since 2021. This change in outcomes is a large indicator as to why he’s allowing the fewest hits of his career.

Wheeler’s past seasons have been dominated by high-strikeout games, but in 2026, he’s become more efficient. Limiting baserunners and stranding the ones he does allow has become his new way of dominance.

The 36-year-old righty has a .174 average against this season, when a .192 average against was his previous best. Wheeler’s ability to adapt as a pitcher following injury, while his strikeouts are down, is part of what makes him a great pitcher.

The version of Wheeler dominating in 2026 isn’t identical to the one that finished near the top of Cy Young voting in the past. While strikeouts have been a major part of his game throughout his time in Philadelphia, he’s finding success in different ways. His ability to limit hard contact and avoid traffic on the bases has allowed him to remain one of the league’s most effective starters.