Will the Mets’ Rotation Be Their Downfall in 2025?

As has become typical over the last few years, the New York Mets have made a very big splash on the free agency market this offseason, once again showing that they’ll go all out to sign the top players across Major League Baseball.

Still, spending a lot of money doesn’t automatically translate to wins — as proven by the Mets themselves when their indulgent $346 million payroll in 2023 only resulted in a disappointing 75-87 record.

With players due to report to spring training in less than a month, the Mets risk suffering through another expensive but ultimately disappointing season in 2025, and this time, the starting rotation could be solely to blame.

Since Luis Severino and Jose Quintana became free agents at the end of last year, New York’s rotation is set is go into this season featuring Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga (if he stays healthy) and David Peterson, with Griffin Canning and Paul Blackburn as depth. While it isn’t terrible, or really even bad, there’s not an established ace among them — and that’s a problem.

There’s no question that the Mets have bolstered their roster this winter, and they’ve spent an exorbitant amount of money doing so. Still, a mediocre starting rotation on an otherwise strong roster could be enough to hold them back in 2025, and for a team looking to establish themselves as a powerhouse of MLB, that’s simply not going to be good enough.

Another Big Winter in New York

When it comes to putting top players in Mets uniforms, owner Steve Cohen seemingly has no budget. It’s been long established that Cohen sees the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) system as a minor inconvenience rather than any sort of actual deterrent to spending the GDP of a small nation each winter, and this offseason was no different.

The Mets’ headline move this winter came in early December when they signed free agent slugger Juan Soto to an eye-popping 15-year, $765 million deal — the largest contract in professional sports history — and he won’t be the only new player on New York’s payroll in 2025.

This offseason, the Mets have also signed Holmes (three years, $38 million), Montas (two years, $34 million), Canning (one year, $4.25 million), and reliever A.J. Minter (two years, $22 million) out of free agency, and re-signed Manaea (three years, $75 million) and outfielder Jesse Winker (one year, $7.5 million).

As of January 22, Roster Resource projected the Mets’ 2025 payroll to sit at $297 million, which means that not only will the Mets have to pay tax for going over the $241 million CBT threshold, but they will also get hit with a 50% surcharge for doing so in three consecutive years and an additional 45% surcharge for exceeding the base threshold by more than $40 million in consecutive years.

This week, they re-signed Ryne Stanek to a $4.5 million deal, which should have them exceed $301 million ($60 million over the base threshold), where that 45% surcharge will become 60%.

Still, $301.5 million actually represents the lowest payroll the Mets have carried since 2022. Last season, their total payroll was $336 million, and in 2023, it was $346 million. As such, it’s certainly not out of the question for New York to keep spending between now and Opening Day, and despite the majority of their offseason acquisitions being pitchers, the Mets are still without an ace for 2025.

An Underwhelming Rotation Could Hold the Mets Back

It’s not hard to see why the Mets’ rotation could be their downfall this year.

Going into spring training, the rotation is set to be led by recently re-signed Manaea, who is going into his second year in New York.

In 2024, Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts in 181.2 innings of work, marking easily one of the best seasons of his career. After opting out of his contract’s second year to try his luck in free agency, the 32-year-old re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75 million deal on December 27.

Montas and Holmes — both of whom signed with the Mets out of free agency in December — will pitch behind Manaea. Montas started the 2024 season with the Cincinnati Reds, accumulating an underwhelming 5.01 ERA in 19 starts before he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline. He was marginally more effective in Milwaukee, posting a 4.55 ERA across 11 starts before the end of the regular season.

Coming off three seasons with the New York Yankees, Holmes hasn’t started a game since his rookie season in 2018, and the Mets are hoping to transition him to the rotation in 2025.

Holmes earned the second All-Star selection of his career last year after pitching 20 consecutive relief outings without allowing a single earned run, but he didn’t fare as well through the second half of the season. He was removed from the closer role after recording his 11th blown save of the year by allowing a walk-off grand slam on September 3, and ended 2024 with a 3.14 ERA in 63.0 innings.

Next is Senga — if he manages to stay healthy. New York signed Senga to a five-year, $75 million deal as an international free agent before the 2023 season, and in his first MLB season, he proved exactly why he was a star in Japan.

Accumulating a 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 202 strikeouts in 166.1 innings of work, Senga earned an All-Star selection and finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023, but last year, a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder meant he started the season on the injured list.

Senga was activated off the IL on July 26 and pitched 5.1 innings against the Atlanta Braves that same night, but a high grade calf strain in the fifth inning ended his start and landed him back on the IL for the rest of the regular season. He returned for the Mets’ playoff berth, but struggled to a 12.60 ERA and 2.60 WHIP in 5.0 innings of work across three games, so going into 2025, Senga will be desperately looking for a comeback.

Rounding out the Mets’ starters is Peterson, who had one of the better 2024 campaigns of any of the above-listed pitchers. In his fifth major league season for New York, he went 10-3 with a career-best 2.90 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 121.0 innings — a marked improvement over the 5.03 ERA he recorded in 2023, but whether it’s sustainable is yet to be seen.

The Mets have Canning and Blackburn as rotation depth, though neither are particularly inspiring options. Canning went 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA in 171.2 innings for the Los Angeles Angeles last year, while Blackburn — who was traded to the Mets from the Athletics at the deadline — went 5-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 75.1 innings and will be likely be starting the 2025 season on the IL after undergoing a cerebrospinal fluid leak repair procedure in October.

The Mets Need an Ace Before Opening Day

At this stage in the offseason, there aren’t too many top starting pitchers left in free agency. Corbin Burnes signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell both joined the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Max Fried was snapped up by the New York Yankees. Arguably the best remaining starter on the market is right-hander Jack Flaherty, and coming off a World Series-winning playoff campaign with the Dodgers, he’s definitely worth considering.

Flaherty started the 2024 season with the Detroit Tigers before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline, and in 162 innings split between the two teams, he accumulated a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 194 strikeouts. The 29-year-old didn’t fare quite as well during the playoffs, allowing 24 hits and 18 earned runs during his five starts (22 innings), but still, there’s no denying that he would bolster the Mets’ rotation in 2025.

Going into the offseason, Flaherty boasted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of all free-agent starting pitchers, and was the only one under the age of 30. The fact that there’s mere weeks until spring training and he still hasn’t landed a contract for this season is more than a little baffling, and according to a recent interview with the New York Post’s Will Zimmerman, Flaherty blames front offices for not having enough ambition.

“You have a certain number of teams that want to win, they look at their rosters and they’re happy [enough] with it,” Flaherty told Zimmerman on January 24. “I think teams just want to get into the playoffs — [it’s] not World Series or bust, but ‘[Let’s] hope we get into the playoffs and see what happens.’”

Flaherty obviously has the drive and mindset to lead a team to a championship, and if the Mets are open to adding yet another free agent this winter, he would be a game-changer for the newly retooled team. However, if New York decides to turn to the trade market instead, their top target should be obvious — and he may be an even better option than Flaherty.

Enter: Dylan Cease

Cease established himself a bonafide ace during his four-year stint with the Chicago White Sox, closing out his debut season in 2019 with an average of 9.99 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) — the highest rate recorded by a rookie with a minimum of 10 starts in franchise history — before finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022. Amid a brutal rebuild, the White Sox traded Cease to the San Diego Padres before the 2024 season, receiving Steven Wilson, Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Samuel Zavala in return.

Last year with the Padres, Cease went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 224 strikeouts in 189.1 innings, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting and marking his fourth consecutive season having struck out at least 200 batters. Now entering his final year of club control and with San Diego looking to shed payroll before Opening Day, Cease has found himself on the trade block, and the Mets should definitely be making inquiries.

With just over two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, New York still has time to make a move. Regardless of whether the team targets Flaherty in free agency, Cease on the trade market, or someone else entirely through whichever method works best, the Mets need to lock down an ace before Opening Day. Otherwise, their starting rotation could easily be enough to hold them back this season, and they risk 2025 becoming yet another year that Cohen spent far too much money and got nothing but a tax bill in return.