Top Notes From The New York Mets ZiPS Projections for 2025

We have written about the trajectory of the 2024 Mets at nauseam, however looking at the previous two offseasons in Queens can help us determine what the team will do in 2025.

Last offseason, the Mets big ticket items were flyer deals on pitchers Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, as well as veteran offensive help, namely Harrison Bader and J.D. Martinez. Thus, Fangraphs’ ZiPS projection system was not terribly high on rookie manager Carlos Mendoza’s group.

The 2025 offseason has had a different ring to it. Owner Steve Cohen opened the wallet in a big way, inking outfielder Juan Soto to the largest contract in North American professional sports history back in December.

He was not done there as he brought back Manaea who enjoyed a resurgent 2024 campaign on a three-year, $75 million deal. Cohen and President of Baseball Operations David Stearns also bolstered the bullpen with the acquisitions of A.J. Minter and Ryne Stanek.

The final major move that New York made was a reunion homegrown star first baseman Pete Alonso.

ZiPS released their projections for upcoming season on Jan. 7, pitting the Mets as an 87-91 win team, behind both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves in the National League East.

Dan Szymborski — the creator of ZiPS — did add that New York has, “the possibility of adding a handful more wins with other moves this winter.” They may have picked up those extra wins with the signings of Minter, Stanek and most notably, Alonso, who all signed after the initial projection.

Overall, the ZiPS system has been tweaked and tinkered with by Szymborski for over 20 years and now stands as one of the premier projection algorithms

For more on the specifics of the ZiPS model, you can check out this article by Szymborski himself which outlines what goes into his system.

While the overall team projections may be a bit out of date, there are still some valuable figures regarding individual players.

Mets ZiPS: Position Players

The Mets will rely on much of the same offensive core that took them to Game 6 of the National League Championship Series in 2024, plus Soto. Soto, Francisco Lindor and Alonso will headline an offense that is projected to have five hitters with an OPS+ above 110.

Despite the stars at the top, the lineup tapers off towards the bottom with ZiPS not loving some of Mendoza’s bench options.

• How will Juan Soto transition to his new home? — While ZiPS thinks Soto will take a minor step back from his 41 home run and 178 OPS+ season with the Yankees, the model still projects a big year from the 26-year-old.
  
  It projects a slash line of .276/.426/.521 with an OPS+ of 167 and a team co-leading 33 home runs. Additionally, Soto is projected to put up the third-highest wRC+ in the game at 166.

• Regression for Francisco Lindor is still an elite season — Lindor enjoyed arguably the best season of his career in 2024, finishing second in NL MVP voting to only Shohei Ohtani. Lindor put up 7.8 fWAR with a wRC+ of 137.
  
  ZiPS does have Lindor regressing, returning to a 5.7 win player. The biggest drop off for Lindor is in his offense, which is projected to go from an .844 OPS to a .799 number.

• Overall numbers will drop for Mark Vientos — After a breakout year for Vientos, there have been concerns about his inability to hit breaking pitches and his swing and miss issues.
  
  ZiPS echoed these concerns, as it projects that his batting average will drop from .266 to .250. Additionally, the system sees Vientos’ slugging percentage dropping from .516 to .458. While his projected 26 home runs and 86 RBI are definitely strong numbers, his projected .771 OPS would be disappointing after last season.

• Which model will be more accurate on Francisco Alvarez? — We often forget that Alvarez is just 23 and entering his third season in MLB. After a 25-homer campaign as a rookie in 2023, Alvarez lost much of his power in 2024 but raised his batting average while battling a thumb injury. Will 2025 finally be his true breakout?
  
  Steamer projections seem to think so, guessing a 3.5 fWAR season for the backstop. On the other hand, ZiPS projects just 2.7 fWAR while both predict relatively similar OPS+ figures at 112 and 111, respectively.

• Will any young infielders break out and outperform the projections? — Despite predicting 22 home runs for Vientos last year, ZiPS picked the third baseman to put up just a .754 OPS.
  
  This year, the Mets have three young infielders — Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña — that will all receive at least a fair shot to produce. ZiPS picked Baty to perform to best of the three, with an OPS+ of 100.
  
  Mauricio was tabbed to have an 84 OPS+ while Acuña was projected a 78 total. Only time will tell if any of the three will enjoy the same breakout as Vientos, however ZiPS is not particularly high on any of the three

Mets ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Starting Pitchers

The Mendoza asked a lot of his starters in 2024 as the rotation threw the fifth-most innings of any in baseball at about 5 ½ per game. The Mets lost a big chunk of those innings as Luis Severino signed with the Athletics and a reunion with Jose Quintana seems unlikely at best.

To replace those two, the Mets started by bringing in Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes — who they plan to transition from a reliever to a starter. Stearns added depth with the addition of Griffin Canning and capped off the rotation with Manaea’s re-signing.

Additionally, New York is getting Kodai Senga back from injury after he appeared just once in the 2024 regular season and twice in the playoffs. Senga finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 after putting up a 2.98 ERA in 166 ⅓ innings.

• How will Kodai Senga rebound from injury? — ZiPS likes Senga to return to success, however in a smaller sample. The model thinks that the 32-year-old Japan-native will put up a 3.51 ERA in just over 138 innings.
  
  Senga is projected to strikeout the most batters per nine innings (K/9) of any Mets starting pitcher (9.7). The innings will be something to keep an eye on as Senga tries to come back from a year on the sidelines, but Szymborski’s model does believe that he will come back strong.

• Can Clay Holmes adapt to a starting role? — Despite coming through the minors as a starting pitcher, Holmes has made just four starts at the MLB level.
  
  After inking a three-year, $38 million deal to be a starter with the Mets, it remains to be seen as to how Holmes will respond to the task. ZiPS projects that Holmes will throw 110 ⅔ innings to the tune of a 3.66 ERA. This projection only has Holmes tabbed for 16 starts, a number that barring injury or a move back to the bullpen, he should pass.

• Who will be the ace? — This gives me the opportunity to talk about Manaea, who had arguably the best season of his nine-year big league career.
  
  The projection is not terribly high on Manaea, despite predicting a team-high 144 innings, the left-hander is tabbed for a 4.31 ERA. Given the 181 ⅔ innings that Manaea threw to the tune of a 3.47 ERA last year, this projection seems a bit down on the 33-year old southpaw.
  
  If Senga bounces back the way that ZiPS thinks he will and Manaea struggles, Senga will regain his footing at the top of the Mets rotation, especially if he can deliver an increased workload.

The starting rotation will undoubtedly be the Mets make-or-break unit this year.

The article described that the projection model is not too high on Canning or fellow veteran starter Paul Blackburn, but is higher on top pitching prospects such as Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. Additionally, Szymborski’s system sees David Peterson returning to around league average while it is very low on Frankie Montas, as evident by his 4.65 projected ERA.

Bullpen

Stearns has placed a lot of emphasis on building strong bullpens in the past, and the Mets are no exception. While Minter and Stanek were the big ticket pickups of the relief corps, Stearns made smaller moves such as the acquisitions of Genesis Cabrera and Chris Devenski that will improve their overall pitching depth.

Additionally, if Blackburn, Canning or starter Tylor Megill are not deployed in the beginning of games, they could be options for Mendoza out of relief as well.

ZiPS has mixed feelings on the Mets pen. While it loves closer Edwin Diaz as well as Dedniel Nuñez, Reed Garrett and Jose Butto, the next level of depth scares the model.

Of course the caveat to this, is that the article was written before the signings of Minter and Stanek. Those two alone will help solidify the back-end of games for New York.

• Edwin Diaz is back to being elite — Some will tell you that he never stopped being the cream of the crop among National League closers, however his 2023 World Baseball Classic injury complicated things.
  
  Diaz pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 2024 which was fine but admittedly not great for a closer. Diaz also saved 20 games and blew seven saves which is not a great ratio, but pitched to a fielding independent pitching (FIP) of just 3.02.
  
  ZiPS thinks that he will continue getting better in 2025, predicting a 2.95 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 55 innings for the Puerto Rico native. Adding on, it projects Diaz to have the highest strikeout percentage (36.7%) of any Met and the most saves (36) in baseball.

• ZiPS likes Dedniel Nuñez, so long as he’s healthy — ZiPS projects Nuñez to have an ERA in the mid-3’s as he profiles as a multi-inning option in Mendoza’s bullpen.
  
  The over-arching theme with him is health, as Nuñez is currently ramping up from strained flexor tendon that he suffered in August of last season. While he avoided surgery, Mets personnel will likely be extremely cautious with their 29-year-old fireballer.

• Outside of Minter, who is a lefty option? — While Minter will play a huge role in the Mets’ bullpen, they do not have many left-handed options once he is used.
  
  The two biggest contenders to serve as Mendoza’s second lefty reliever or Danny Young and Genesis Cabrera. ZiPS is not high on either one of them as it projects a 4.33 and 4.48 ERA, respectively. The name of the game with relievers is depth, so one of those two or somebody else will have to step up and outperform those predictions.

Mets ZiPS: Final Thoughts

On the offensive side, the Mets are a fairly predictable team. You know what Soto, Alonso and Lindor will give you and you have a pretty good idea of what Nimmo will bring to the table. They did not lose any major pieces of their 2024 lineup that went to the NLCS, and added one of the five best hitters in the sport.

The concerning part will always be the pitching and with Montas already sidelined for 6-8 weeks with a lat strain, and now Manaea behind few weeks with a strained oblique, Mendoza, Stearns and Cohen may have to get creative with their arms. ZiPS is split on the Mets. Loving their offense while not being entirely sold on the pitching side.

Cohen said in his media availability from spring training camp on Tuesday, Feb. 18, that, “we’ve got to make the playoffs. That is the minimum.” ZiPS seems to think the Mets are on the right track with their upper-80 projected win total. Once adding Alonso, Minter and Stanek one would figure that this number would rise, but with a stacked NL East, only time will tell.