Why I Picked the Twins To Win the AL Pennant

Last week, Just Baseball managing editor Ryan Finkelstein sent me a message asking for my World Series prediction.

I knew I’d be taking the Dodgers to win it all. But somehow, until that point, I hadn’t given much thought to who their opponent might be. I had no idea who to pick.

Eventually, I typed back my answer: “Dodgers over Twins in six games.”

I waited for a reply. Would my fellow editors respect my bold prediction? Or would they just think I was totally off base?

The response was exactly what I hoped for. In the words of Eric Treuden, “Dodgers over TWINS? Bold, but I’m here for it.”

I know the Minnesota Twins weren’t the most popular pre-season pick to win the AL pennant. They finished fourth in their own division last year, and their biggest pickups this offseason were Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France. 

Those aren’t major upgrades. Heck, those “upgrades” aren’t even enough to make up for the losses of players like Carlos Santana and Max Kepler. From that perspective, you might expect the Twins to be worse in 2025 than they were the year before.

Yet, there was real logic and careful consideration behind my prediction — I didn’t just pull it out of my behind.

Let me explain.

Stats, rankings, and odds updated prior to games on March 28.

Here’s Why I Picked the Twins To Win the AL Pennant

Okay, wait. Before I can tell you why I picked the Twins to win the AL pennant, I have to tell you why I picked the Twins will win the AL Central.

The Twins Have the Talent

The top of Minnesota’s rotation – Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober – is a strength. So too is the starting depth. Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson are perfectly respectable arms to round out the rotation. Former top prospects Zebby Matthews and David Festa offer high-upside depth from Triple-A.

Supporting that starting staff is arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax make up a one-two punch that can go head-to-head with even Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith.

Cole Sands is coming off a terrific breakout season, and Danny Coulombe was a high-upside pickup this winter. Justin Topa is another high-upside arm if he can stay healthy, and I’m intrigued by what Louis Varland could do in a full season pitching out of the ‘pen.

That’s already six arms, and there are things to like about plenty of the guys I haven’t even named yet, including Jorge Alcala, Michael Tonkin (IL), and Brock Stewart (IL).

The Twins have plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, too. They ranked fourth in the AL in runs scored (4.6 per game) and wRC+ (107) last season, and most of their key pieces are returning. Indeed, the Twins will be hoping to get more from their most important players in 2025.

Carlos Correa took 367 PA last year. Byron Buxton took 388. It’s far from a sure thing that either of those two will stay healthy in 2025, but if they can, they have the talent to lead a team on a deep postseason run.

Royce Lewis might just fall into the same category if he can get healthy, stay healthy, and prove he can play up to his potential over a full season.

Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda are four more talented hitters on this team who could take a step forward in 2025. It’s also far too soon to give up on Edouard Julien.

With all of these arms and bats at their disposal, I think the Twins are the best team in the AL Central. And it’s not just me! The postseason odds from both FanGraphs and PECOTA have the Twins as the favorites.

They need their guys to stay healthy, but if they do, the Twins should have the best offense and the best pitching staff in the division. 

But that’s just the AL Central. What about the rest of the American League?

A Path to the Pennant

Here’s the thing. I don’t think the Twins will finish the 2025 regular season with the best record in the American League. I don’t think they’re a secret super team ready to bust out.

However, for all the reasons I just explained, I’m reasonably confident that the Twins are the best team in the AL Central. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Guardians, Tigers, or Royals came out on top in the end, but as far as I’m concerned, the Twins are the team to beat.

As for the teams to beat in the AL East and AL West? Beats me.

I think at least one team in the AL West will probably be better than the Twins. I think at least one team in the AL East will probably be better than the Twins. But I don’t have the slightest idea who those teams will be.

I change my mind daily about which of the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners will win the AL West. I wouldn’t be shocked if all three finish within one or two games of each other when all is said and done.

The AL East is even more of a puzzle. In a five-team division, there are 120 possible configurations for the end-of-season standings. None of those configurations would surprise me. Am I exaggerating? Yes. But really not that much.

So, I think the Twins have a more direct path to a division title than any other AL team. And once again, it’s not just me. Minnesota has the highest division odds of any AL club, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA.

A more direct path to a division title means a more direct path to a postseason spot and, potentially, a first-round bye. That, in turn, means a more direct path to the World Series.

That’s why I picked the Twins to win the AL pennant.

I know it’s bold, but I hope you’re here for it.