Terrible read yesterday; I think it was my worst of the season. We lose plays all the time, but when it’s a bad read coupled with a loss, that’s when it upsets me. Considering the starting pitching and lack of bullpen depth on both sides, I should have known that the total was far too low. It was too good to be true. If I’m going to lose, I have to at least learn from it. I did, and we moved past it. That’s gambling at the end of the day, but today, let’s make it back.
If you read my daily picks, you probably wonder about the Sunday Night Baseball system. Unfortunately, none of the games today match that system. Both the Cardinals and Red Sox are at home, and the Red Sox stay home. The system works when they are the road team after coming off Sunday Night Baseball. No system works for them today, but we have another system to play.
2023 Straight Plays Record: 60-48 (+7.68 U)
I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB moneyline and receive $100 once the bet is settled.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Pablo Lopez vs. Noah Syndergaard
On the surface, the pitching matchup heavily favors the Twins when looking at the ERA of both of these pitchers. That’s where the edge ends, as the Dodgers own everything else. This game immediately shot out at me. The Dodgers are favorites with a clear starting pitching edge for the Twins after the Twins put up 27 runs in their last two games.
The Twins had a brilliant couple of games offensively, but now they have to travel from Minnesota to Los Angeles to face a Dodgers team that’s also red-hot. I’m more than willing to take the better team at home with a projected let-down by the Twins.
Pablo Lopez has been great this season but has a challenging matchup today. The Dodgers rank second in baseball in wRC+ against righties at 117, and they have a 120 wRC+ in May so far. Lopez also doesn’t have great numbers against this Dodgers’ current roster. Through 74 PA, opponents have a .324 batting average, a .333 xwOBA, and a .435 xSLG. The Dodgers at home against righties are incredible, rocking a 139 wRC+. This will be his hardest matchup to date.
Noah Syndergaard will toe the rubber for the Dodgers amid a rough season. His 6.12 ERA is troublesome, but plenty of underlying metrics point towards improvement. His 4.79 xERA, 4.75 FIP, and 4.70 xFIP. All of those point to his ERA coming down, and after some travel for Minnesota, I think he can turn in a fine start.
In May, when accounting for the last two games where they put up 27 runs and 14 runs off the right-handed starters, the Twins have a 95 wRC+ against right-handers, placing them 15th in the league. They are an above-average team against righties overall, posting a 105 wRC+, good for 11th in the league. On the road, the Twins have a 76 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, ranking 27th in the league. It’s just not close to the level of the Dodgers.
We also have a system working in our favor. You know I love fading teams after huge offensive performances, and it’s quantified over time. Historically, it’s profitable to fade a road underdog after putting up 12+ runs. This is a 400-game sample, and the home team is 245-155, winning at a 61% rate with a 5% ROI.
The Dodgers didn’t use a lot of their quality bullpen arms yesterday. Evan Phillips, Caleb Furgeson, and Shelby Miller should all be available today. I expect this game to be relatively close early on before the Dodgers pull away.
The Dodgers have also been incredible at home this season, rocking a 15-6 record to the Twins 9-10 record on the road. I’m taking the Dodgers to win this one outright, considering the model has them as -144 favorites.