Who’s to Blame for Nolan Arenado Being Stuck in St. Louis?

It’s hard to believe that March is around the corner and not only is Nolan Arenado still a member of the St. Louis Cardinals, we’re still talking about trade rumors surrounding him.

It’s arguably been the most drawn out saga of the offseason, dating back to early November when, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals were feeling out the market for the soon-to-be 34-year-old third baseman.

Since then then it’s been a series of blockades at almost every corner for John Mozeliak and the Cards’ front office.

They already entered the offseason behind the 8-ball when it came to potentially dealing the former superstar, as Arenado was fresh off his second consecutive mediocre season at the plate.

After finishing third in NL MVP voting in 2022, Arenado dropped from a 149 wRC+ and 7.2 fWAR player, to a 106 wRC+ and 2.7 fWAR player in ’23 and a 102 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR player in ’24.

At a payroll hit of $21 million in this season, $16 million next season and $15 million in ’27, with a luxury tax allocation of $25.55 million in each of those three seasons, that lackluster production was already going to be difficult to move without the hefty price tag attached to it.

Then there’s Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he is willing to waive, however as John Denton of MLB.com reports, there’s only a select view destinations he’d relinquish his trade rights to: the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox.

And Arenado stuck to his word, as in late December he vetoed a deal to the Houston Astros, and recently held firm on that decision, according to Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic, as St. Louis and Houston reportedly re-engaged in talks in recent days.

Now as March looms, many teams have settled their rosters for the most part and the focus shifts to preparing for the season ahead.

So if things remain as they have to this point and Arenado remains a Cardinal by Opening Day, who’s to blame for this debacle?

The Cardinals Are Focused on the Future and Nolan Arenado Needs to Accept That

When discussing blame in this scenario, the obvious answer is to pin it on the veteran using his no-trade clause to decline moves.

Now, Arenado is contractually within his rights to do so, and has earned that right after being one of MLB’s premier superstars for nearly a decade.

That being said, if you break this situation down into it’s simplest terms, he single-handedly kept himself in St. Louis by nixing the Astros deal.

While he obviously doesn’t want to go to Houston, it may be time for Arenado to look at the big picture of what the future holds for the team he seems to have a heavy desire to remain with.

St. Louis has missed out on postseason baseball for two consecutive seasons and their remaining core of Arenado, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray isn’t getting any younger.

They all have at least $18 million price tags attached to them, will all be 33 years of age or older in 2025 and all have full no-trade clauses for the next two seasons (Contreras goes from a full no-trade clause to a 10-team no-trade list in 2027).

While Arenado’s deal may decrease year over year, Contreras and Gray’s deals only stand to increase throughout the duration of the three years remaining on his contract.

This indicates that if St. Louis is penny pinching now, they’ll likely be doing so in the years to come, relying heavily on their youth movement.

Keeping youth movement in mind, Arenado is entering 2025 with as much internal pressure on him than he’s arguably had in his career.

In Just Baseball’s final installment of the Top 100 prospect rankings for 2024, St. Louis held two infielders within the list: JJ Wetherholt at No. 24 and Thomas Saggese at No. 100.

Now, Wetherholt may still be a name to expect in 2026, but Saggese already has some big league at-bats under his belt and projects to be a part of their big league roster right from the get-go this season.

Then, there’s the established infield names at the major league level already that certainly have a role to play in the future of the franchise in Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman.

If 2025 is to be another seemingly league-average season at the plate for Arenado, then the he’ll certainly be feeling the heat from the in-house competition in St. Louis.

Looking at external competition now, the outlook for the Cardinals looks a little less straightforward than that of some of the other teams within the NL Central.

The Cubs have as much star power as they’ve had in years with the likes of Kyle Tucker, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele leading the way.

The Brewers have perfected the small-market winning strategy in the past half-decade and look just as strong as they have in their previous two division-winning seasons.

The Reds have as much reason for optimism as any, with a lineup anchored by the electrifying Elly De La Cruz and a rotation led by Hunter Greene.

And while the Pirates might be in the same boat as the Cardinals when it comes to focusing on the youth movement of the future, they’re in as good a spot to contend for October as they have been since they last made the postseason in 2015.

Arenado might love it in St. Louis, but it might be time for him to face the facts; he’s a veteran in the midst of decline who’s currently playing for a team that seems to be planning its future without him in it.

Maybe Houston wasn’t such a problem.

John Mozeliak and the Cardinals’ Front Office are Not Blameless Either

While Arenado has the keys to the future written into his contract, we have to acknowledge the fact that he has given Mozeliak some avenues to facilitate a parting of ways.

Six teams may not be an abundance of suitors, but it’s not as if none of those teams could use a Nolan Arenado on their roster.

Now should Mozeliak have taken a deal like the one he reportedly declined, as per Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch, the Yankees that would’ve sent Marcus Stroman to St. Louis in exchange for Arenado? No, because he would’ve been replacing a high-price struggling name with another high-price struggling name.

However, while that may not have been the right the deal, surely a deal with one of Arenado’s six suitors was possible.

After all, it’s not as if Arenado is chopped liver. He’s still an above average hitter who posted a 102 wRC+ and drove in 71 in 2024, and he also happens to be coming off another phenomenal defensive season, with six DRS and nine OAA season.

He may not be worth the $21 million he’s due in 2025, but with the right amount of retained money on the Cardinals’ end, I find it hard to believe that a suitable deal couldn’t be found with even one of these squads.

Difficult contracts can be moved, just ask Jed Hoyer after he moved Cody Bellinger this winter.

So if it was truly “plan A, B, C and D” to move Nolan Arenado this winter, as FanSided’s Robert Murray put it on The Baseball Insiders Podcast on Feb. 24, then there are not many excuses (if any) as to why he’s still in Cardinal red right now.

Has the Clock Struck Midnight on an Arenado Deal?

In that same podcast episode, Murray made it clear that a deal for Arenado doesn’t seem likely at this point.

“One name I do not expect to come of the board is Arenado, who I firmly expect to stay in St. Louis,” he said.

Now, Opening Day is not for another month, so if the Cardinals really are coming back to the table with teams to move Arenado then there’s always a chance.

So if we humor this idea for a moment, are any of the six preferred trade destinations still an option for him, and are there any other teams that could benefit from his services?

His Six Preferred Destinations

Boston Red Sox

After signing Alex Bregman, the Red Sox’s need to add at third base is virtually non-existent at this point.

In fact, they have a bit of surplus at the moment, with Rafael Devers holding firm to that third base spot, meaning Bregman will likely man second.

And even if Arenado was willing to move to first base, like Katie Woo reported early this winter, the presence of Triston Casas diminishes that need.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers too are as crowded as ever, as despite chasing stars this offseason, a third baseman at his price tag is entirely unnecessary.

Max Muncy currently holds down third base, and Los Angeles frankly has no needs in their lineup that Arenado could address.

Los Angeles Angels

This is the first destination that he listed on his trade list that could still be interested in making a deal happen, after Anthony Rendon underwent hip surgery.

While Arenado is objectively a better player than Yoán Moncada, who they signed to fill the third base gap, it’s important to note that Angels have pivoted at third regardless.

San Diego Padres

With Manny Machado at third base, Arenado doesn’t fit with the Padres there, and with the current presence of Luis Arráez and Jake Cronenworth to cover first base, that eliminates his positional change suggestion as well.

Not to mention the Padres are seemingly running on financial fumes at the moment, so unless the retained money is significant, it’s tough to imagine a world in which they could afford this.

New York Mets

Steve Cohen might be the highest rolling owner in Major Legaue Baseball, so perhaps he’d still be willing to spend some cash on new addition to the roster.

However after re-signing Pete Alonso at first, Mark Vientos seemingly has a stronghold on third, rounding out the infield.

Then when you consider how strong Brett Baty’s spring has been so far, the corners seem even further covered in New York for the time being.

Philadelphia Phillies

While the Phillies did explore the possibility of making a change at third base, it seems as though they’ll be sticking with Alec Bohm in 2025.

Even if they weren’t though, Arenado also seems to have his shortcomings at the plate nowadays, meaning Philly would be switching out flawed for flawed by replacing Bohm with him.

Teams Not on Arenado’s List that Could Use Arenado

Houston Astros

The fact the Astros have now been linked twice to Arenado shows that the interest is still there.

With a little re-shuffling, as Isaac Paredes would likely have to slide second and Jose Altuve would shift out to left field, Arenado could work amidst a pretty solid Astros lineup even after the Tucker deal.

New York Yankees

We’ve discussed that the Yankees have already made a run at Arenado this winter, and for good reason.

They’re currently set to sport a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu both of which were well-below average hitters in 2024, at an 88 wRC+ and 52 wRC+ respectively.

Arenado would bring much more stability on both sides of the ball, and could do worse than hitting in a lineup with the likes of Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger, while also being reunited with his Cardinals teammate Paul Goldschmidt.

Detroit Tigers

After missing out on the Bregman sweepstakes, the Tigers made their intentions clear that they’re in the market for a third baseman.

This comes on the heels of getting just an 84 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR out of the position last season, which despite his decline in production in the past couple of seasons, Arenado should outperform easily in 2025.

Toronto Blue Jays

Whether Arenado would be willing to head north of the border is besides the point here. The fact remains the Blue Jays could use another bat in the lineup and third base is one of the positions they’re weaker in.

Ernie Clement did a solid enough job in 2024, but he was still just a 94 wRC+ player in 2024. His usefulness could be much better suited to a utility infield role, rather than starting third baseman.

Concluding Thoughts

This has been a messy situation all winter that from an outside perspective, never looked entirely organized at any point.

From a blame standpoint, it has to be shared between both parties, Arenado seems very particular for a player who doesn’t seem to have a world of suitors lining up at his doorstep, including the team currently cutting his checks.

Meanwhile, if the Cards’ front office desperately wanted to find a way to rid themselves of Arenado’s contract, there was enough teams in the league (including on Arenado’s trade list) who likely would’ve jumped on the opportunity to add a household name to their roster, so long as it was for the right price.

As the saying goes, there’s no point in crying over spilled milk. However, this offseason will be plagued by the missed opportunity both parties had to come to an optimal solution.