What’s Next For Nolan Arenado After Turning Down the Astros?

On a human level, it could be easy to understand why Nolan Arenado would not want to be traded away from the St. Louis Cardinals. Whether it’s about the city, his teammates, providing stability for his family, or just the way he looks in the red and white uniform, Arenado’s desire to stay with his team of four seasons — especially when his contract guarantees he’ll pocket $74 million over the next three years anyway — could make at least some remnants of sense.

Unfortunately, the fact that a decision to stay with a team is understandable doesn’t mean a player won’t live to regret it, and Arenado’s recent choice to block a trade to the Houston Astros will almost certainly be one that haunts him.

The Cardinals Are Looking to Trade Arenado This Winter

For the Cardinals, this offseason has the potential to be both important and transformative, though the affects likely won’t be felt for a number of seasons. John Mozeliak — the team’s president of baseball operations for almost two decades — is set to step down from his role at the end of 2025, and in his final season leading the front office, he’s determined to set the foundation for the future, which he admits will include shedding payroll.

“This is a reset,” Mozeliak told reporters during the Cardinals’ end-of-season press conference. “Yes, this is going to be where we’re not focusing on necessarily building the best possible roster we can. We’re also excited about the roster. We do have a bunch of young players. We also have some emerging stars at the minor league level. How we could augment that over the next few months, time will tell.”

At 33 years old, Arenado is unfortunately no longer on the Cardinals’ list of young up-and-coming players of the future, and with $74 million owed in salary over the next three seasons — including $64 million from St. Louis — he’s an obvious candidate to be traded as the team tries to cut payroll. Unfortunately, the Cardinals’ attempts to move him this winter have so far been unsuccessful.

On December 18, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Arenado had invoked the no-trade clause in his contract to veto a proposed move to the Astros, effectively stopping the trade in its tracks. As a result, the Astros were forced to look elsewhere to bolster their infield before 2025, and Arenado remains the Cardinals’ third baseman — at least for now.

Nolan Arenado Made a Mistake By Rejecting Trade to Astros

With his 34th birthday coming up in April 2025, the remaining three years on Arenado’s current deal may be his last in MLB, especially since he’s already showing a significant decrease in power output. His slugging hit a career-low .394 this year, and his 16 home runs were the least he’s posted since his debut season in 2013. While a resurgence isn’t out of the question — he finished third in MVP voting just two seasons ago — Arenado is a risky acquisition for any contending team, made even more so by the payroll hit that comes with taking on his contract.

Before 2019, Arenado signed an eight-year, $260 million contract extension with the Colorado Rockies, and over the next three seasons, he’s due to be paid a total of $74 million — $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027 — plus a series of complicated deferrals lasting through 2041. When the Rockies traded him to the Cardinals in 2021, they agreed to pay a portion of his remaining salary, which will end with $5 million in each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Still, the remaining $64 million owed to Arenado will come from St. Louis, or whichever team he moves to in a trade.

The reality is that despite rumors of potential fits and landing spots, there isn’t going to be a very long list of teams banging down the Cardinals’ door to acquire Arenado this winter. MLB insider Joel Sherman recently shot down speculation that the New York Yankees were interested in the third baseman, and to even attempt the now-vetoed deal to the Astros, the Cardinals had to offer to send $15-20 million to help pay down the third baseman’s salary. Between his declining performance and expensive contract, Arenado simply isn’t the most appealing acquisition, and the Astros’ interest was likely a one-off opportunity for him to move to a contending team.

The Astros Have Likely Moved On

Now, that ship has sailed. Just two days after the move fell through, the Astros signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal, and along with infielder Isaac Paredes — who the team recently acquired in a trade with the Chicago Cubs — it’s clear Houston has locked in their infield for 2025.

Arenado’s reasoning for blocking the trade to Houston isn’t clear. He’s said that he’d only waive his no-trade clause for a winning team, but considering the Astros are coming off their eighth consecutive playoff campaign and have won two World Series titles since 2017, it would’ve been fair to assume they’d fit the bill. If a team firmly within their current competitive window doesn’t make the cut, it’s hard to guess which clubs would entice Arenado enough to waive his no-trade clause — if he even gets another chance to do so.

Instead of jumping on the chance to play for the Astros and potentially get another shot at a ring before he retires, Arenado is now almost certain to spend his final years in MLB with the Cardinals. Maybe a better trade opportunity to a contending team will come along, but maybe it won’t. It’s far more likely that Arenado will stay exactly where he is — with a Cardinals team going through “a reset” as they plan for a future he won’t be a part of.