White Sox vs. Guardians: ALDS Preview
A pair of AL Central rivals are facing off in the ALDS. Who will come out on top?
Fresh off the franchise’s first postseason series win since 2005, the Chicago White Sox left for Cleveland to take on the division-rival Guardians in the American League Division Series.
This isn’t the first matchup in the past few weeks for these franchises. In mid-September, the White Sox held the division lead before losing that critical series. From there, Cleveland controlled its destiny and rode the rest of a strong final month into another division crown.
But the Guardians have won one playoff series since claiming the American League pennant in 2016. Many times, they’ve had dominant rosters that came up short when it mattered most. They won an MLB record 21 straight in 2017, but lost in the first round to the New York Yankees. They took care of the division rival Detroit Tigers in 2024, but lost in five to the Yankees in the ALCS.
The constant all those years, though, was José Ramírez. That said, he wasn’t the player of old in 2026. He dealt with injury issues, and in 125 games he had just a 92 wRC+, his first below-average offensive season since 2015. He started to look like himself a bit more over the final 10 days of the regular season, but that did precious little to salvage his season.
As is often the case, the Guardians are predicated on their pitching staff. This year, they were ninth in starter ERA and sixth for the bullpen. They’ve got an innate ability to shorten the game. Cade Smith is as dominant as they come in the ninth, and southpaws Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski, as well as right-hander Hunter Gaddis, all had an ERA of 3.02 or better.
The White Sox have a solid pitching staff themselves, and perhaps a steadier force on offense. They’re also riding the high of dismantling a franchise once seen as dynastic in the Houston Astros. All year, they’ve been a Cinderella story. But even after the clock struck midnight, Cinderella still became a princess. Who’s to say that’s not how this story ends for Chicago?
Starting Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Hagen Smith vs. Parker Messick
- Smith: 18 GP, 1.29 ERA, 28.0 IP, 41 K, 0.8 fWAR
- Messick: 32 GS, 2.56 ERA, 186.1 IP, 193 K, 4.9 fWAR
Following the same recipe as Game 1 against Houston, Smith gets the ball for the White Sox. Against the Astros, he was sharp, allowing just two hits and hammering the strike zone across three scoreless frames.
The White Sox’s strength is their bullpen. The catch, however, is they’re going up against Messick. The AL Rookie of the Year hopeful finished the season with a 2.56 ERA — sixth among qualified starters.
In four starts against Chicago, the southpaw posted a 2.81 ERA in 25.2 innings. He also struck out 29 and allowed just 19 hits. His recent start against them in September was less sharp; he allowed three over six. Still quality, and he picked up the win, but he allowed a home run to veteran outfielder Tommy Pham. That homer by Pham was the fourth the White Sox hit off of him this season.
Messick is still brilliant, but will the fifth and, if necessary, sixth times facing him make him more hittable for the White Sox bats?
Game 2: TBD vs. Gavin Williams
- Williams: 32 GS, 3.76 ERA, 184.1 IP, 248 K, 3.6 fWAR
The White Sox haven’t announced a starter yet for this game, so let’s focus on the pitcher of record for the Guardians.
Last year was a breakout campaign for Williams, who posted a 3.06 ERA. Despite his run prevention numbers taking a step back in 2026, his under-the-hoods were brilliant. He struck out 248 opposing hitters, shredding last year’s total by 75. He did that in just one more start, and 42 more batters faced.
The 248 strikeouts were good for second in all of baseball, behind only Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski.
Williams is susceptible to the home run ball, as he was tied for the sixth-most homers allowed this year as well. The White Sox got him twice this season across his four starts, but he still managed 28 strikeouts in 20.1 innings.
Following a bullpen game, one would assume Chicago throws a starter in this one. That said, these two teams do get an off day on Sunday baked in between Games 1 and 2. In theory, most arms should be available save for Smith and potentially someone in bulk behind him.
Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
No starters announced for this one, but these two teams get yet another off day for travel from Cleveland to Chicago.
The White Sox, barring a lengthy outing or high-pitch-count Game 1 from Smith, should have him back for Game 3. If not for multiple innings, at least possibly a high-leverage spot. He’s solid in the groundball department, and the Guardians don’t strike out a whole lot.
That said, they’ll likely start, or piggyback, whichever of Sean Burke or Davis Martin doesn’t throw in Game 2. Burke pitched Game 2 against Houston, but Martin hasn’t thrown since Sept. 26. After pitching brilliantly through May, he had a 5.63 ERA in his final 18 appearances.
One could assume the Guardians decide between an opener followed by Joey Cantillo, or Tanner Bibee. The latter makes the most sense in a potential rubber game, especially on the road, given his small track record of success in the postseason.
It wasn’t a good year for Bibee by his early-career standards. However, he finished with 188 innings of work and had a three-month stretch with an ERA of 3.38.
Games 4 & 5 (If Necessary)
For the White Sox, keeping this a short series would be to their benefit. Avoiding Messick and Williams twice apiece best ensures a series win. With all the off days, they’d both likely pitch twice if this series goes the distance.
Game 4 would be in Chicago, while Game 5 would return to Cleveland.
Since there are three off days in this series, and the Guardians have several arms that can create discomfort for opposing hitters, it’s hard not to feel good about them, especially if this series gets back to Cleveland for a winner-take-all.
That said, the playoffs are all about matchups and getting hot at the right time. The main point of contention with this new format is that two teams get byes through the Wild Card round. There’s a real “rest versus rust” conversation that we’re probably a few years away from having a valid enough sample to discuss.
The NBC broadcast mentioned in Game 3 of Atlanta versus Philadelphia that it all depends on who your stars are. If you’re a team whose stars are on the mound, you probably prefer the rest. If you’re a team whose stars are everyday players, you probably want to keep playing. The good news? That’s how both these teams get to Game 1 of this series.
Key Storylines To Watch: Cleveland Guardians
How Rusty Are They?
Immediately piggybacking off of the “rest versus rust” debate, the Guardians are proof of concept as to whether your stars being pitchers means it’s better to rest.
Messick and Williams both haven’t thrown in at least six days.
That said, a star the Guardians desperately need to get going this series is the third baseman Ramírez. There were signs of life at the end of September, but he was far from his usual standard in 2026. Given the hot stretch going into the time off, it can go one of two ways. First, it could be a positive note to take into the playoffs, or the off days could stall his progress, and it’ll take him a game or two to figure it out again.
Historically, he’s not the strongest of playoff performers. Of course, that’s partly just the result of randomly isolating a select group of plate appearances during a long season. But in 190 playoff plate appearances, he has an 80 wRC+ compared to the 127 he’s got for his career in the regular season.
Cleveland isn’t rife with stars at the dish, and it needs him to get far in the postseason.
Ramírez Aside, Where’s the Offense Coming From?
The Guardians are habitually a “pitching and defense” team. This year was no different, and it didn’t help that Ramírez struggled. They finished tied for 20th in team wRC+, 25th in wOBA, 27th in home runs, and tied for 22nd in batting average.
As a unit, they weren’t particularly good at anything except not striking out. Even that aspect of their game wasn’t spectacular, as they still struck out nearly 21% of the time.
Three hitters for them posted a wRC+ of 110 or better in 2026: Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan, and Travis Bazzana. The veteran Kwan did so in perhaps the least attractive way possible in present-day MLB. He slugged just .349, popped three home runs, and had just 27 extra-base hits.
Outfielder Jo Adell provided much-needed thump in the heart of their order after the trade deadline, but he’s very boom-or-bust as a hitter historically. He’s a lightning rod when he’s on, but he can sink a lot of rallies when he’s struggling.
Key Storylines To Watch: Chicago White Sox
Will Murakami Break Out?
Munetaka Murakami was often the straw that stirred the drink this season for the White Sox, clubbing over 30 home runs despite missing time with a leg injury. However, despite the team’s success overall in Houston, he went just 1-for-8 with five strikeouts.
Part of his game is the strikeout; it’s a byproduct of being the type of slugger he is. The problem is he has to slug. Those two games in Houston are hardly enough to create a fuss about, but it’s something to monitor in this series. Messick is tricky and has the platoon advantage over Murakami, while Williams was very homer-prone this year.
Murakami doesn’t have to homer off either to be productive, but it could be the difference in this series.
Which Veteran Has the Big Swing in Them?
This question essentially boils down to two veteran outfielders: Randal Grichuk and Andrew Benintendi. Both players got just three at-bats in Houston, but Grichuk had two hits, and Benintendi went 1-for-3 with two walks and an RBI.
The latter has a World Series win in his career, and another deep playoff run during his time with the New York Yankees. As for Grichuk, however, he hasn’t played past the League Division Series since his rookie season with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Neither are star-caliber players, though Grichuk certainly hit like one in Chicago. Across 247 plate appearances in the regular season, he slashed .299/.328/.598 with 15 homers, a 152 wRC+, and 44 runs batted in.
But the question is still about who will have the big swing. The White Sox have an electric offense predicated on young contributors hitting the ball over the fence. But there’s going to come a few situations where a veteran needs to plug a gap or hit a sacrifice fly. Can either of these two outfielders come through in such situations?
Prediction
This one’s tough. The teams somewhat play into each other’s strengths and weaknesses. The White Sox are a strong offense and a fine pitching staff, while the Guardians are the opposite.
Similar to the Wild Card round, a short series tends to favor the team with better pitching, especially if said team has two of the three best starters in that series. Moreover, because the Guardians won the American League Central, they’ve had a week to line up their rotation.
That said, the Guardians must score to win. If Ramírez isn’t up to snuff, there’s not much beyond him to shoulder a heavy burden. Ultimately, this series will come down to who can drive the ball with authority the most. On paper, that’s pretty clearly the White Sox.
White Sox in 4.
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