Dodgers vs. Braves: NLDS Series Preview

After outlasting the Phillies in a hard-fought three-game set in Atlanta, the Atlanta Braves take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the playoffs for the first time since the 2021 NLCS. Since then, the Braves have won just one playoff series, and the Dodgers now look to complete a three-peat.

The two squads have taken on new looks in the five years since their last October matchup. Los Angeles boasts an array of highly-touted free agents, including former Atlanta legend Freddie Freeman, while the Braves have built around their once-young core.

These days, the Braves aren’t quite the powerhouse they used to be, with a roster mired in injuries and general underperformance. Most notably, Ronald Acuna Jr.‘s knees failing him and Austin Riley‘s steep decline. As for the Dodgers, their bodacious spending has elicited early returns, hoisting two Commissioner’s Trophies since the signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Los Angeles comes in heavily favored, but let’s take a look at how the two teams stack up statistically.

Offense	Dodgers	BRAVES
HR	204 (t7th)	204 (t7th)
RBI	756 (4th)	711 (8th)
AVG	.257 (3rd)	.246 (10th)
OBP	.338 (3rd)	.309 (28th)
SLG	.424 (2nd)	.409 (7th)
OPS	.762 (2nd)	.718 (16th)
wRC+	111 (2nd)	97 (20th)
fWAR	26.9 (2nd)	17.5 (21st)

Pitching	Dodgers	BRAVES
ERA	3.55 (4th)	3.63 (5th)
FIP	3.68 (2nd)	4.13 (16th)
K%	25.7% (3rd)	22.4% (13th)
BB%	8.1% (6th)	8.8% (15th)
fWAR	26.3 (1st)	15.6 (12th)

Starting Pitching: Dodgers

The Dodgers attack with an otherworldly four-headed monster of a playoff rotation. Among them are six All-Star appearances, four Cy Young awards, four ERA titles, a Triple Crown, and a World Series MVP.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%
Tarik Skubal	158.2	2.74	2.51	30%	4.4%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	185	2.53	3.33	25.7%	5.9%
Blake Snell	42.2	1.90	1.72	31.8%	9.2%
Tyler Glasnow	74	3.53	2.74	34%	8.7%

While all but Yamamoto have dealt with significant injuries this season, they appear healthy and ready for playoff action heading into October. Skubal has been announced as the Game 1 starter, with Yamamoto and Snell likely to follow.

Starting Pitching: Braves

Walt Weiss has had 15 different pitchers start a game this season, and nearly a third of them are now on the shelf. Past Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle, the available arms all offer serious question marks. Here are the names who can potentially start games in the upcoming five-game set.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%
Chris Sale	162.2	2.16	2.29	30.9%	4.8%
Tyler Mahle	149	3.99	3.99	22.3%	7.5%
Grant Holmes	151.2	3.44	4.76	17.9%	9.7%
Bryce Elder	149	4.11	4.62	19.1%	7.7%
JR Ritchie	73.1	4.91	5.56	20.9%	13.2%
Ray Kerr	18.1	1.47	3.97	16.7%	3%

Despite solid season numbers, this unit doesn’t evoke much confidence, especially against the Dodgers’ lineup. Mahle provided seven innings of one-run ball against the Phillies, and Kerr shut out them out over 3.1 innings as the Game 3 opener. But Kerr isn’t a natural starter, and primarily started due to a favorable matchup.

Holmes’ peripherals are uninspiring, and he went just two innings as the bulk man behind Kerr. Elder went on the shelf for knee surgery and is questionable to make the NLDS roster.

Key Storylines: Los Angeles Dodgers

Are Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker Back?

While the Dodgers’ offense remained the second-best in the league by wRC+ thanks to their phenomenal depth, their two highest-paid sluggers didn’t live up to their pay grade.

Betts and Tucker’s numbers through August:

	PA	wRC+	xwOBA	fWAR
Mookie Betts	423	91	.325	1.8
Kyle Tucker	528	92	.325	0.2

Samples of these sizes can hardly be considered flukes, especially since Betts’ struggles date back to last season, and Tucker’s to the second half of 2025. But September has told a different story.

	PA	wRC+	xwOBA	fWAR
Mookie Betts	105	202	.397	1.9
Kyle tucker	99	140	.364	0.7

Of course, these are minuscule sample sizes compared to 400 to 500 plate appearances, but a hot stretch heading into October is just what the doctor ordered for these former superstars. Just having more of an offensive presence surrounding Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman would benefit the offense as a whole.

How Does the Bullpen Shape Up?

While I covered this exact storyline a few weeks back, it doesn’t hurt to take another look at the competition for save situations. Cutting the fluff, it’s a two-horse race between year-long back-end arm Tanner Scott and 2025 playoff closer/hero Roki Sasaki.

There’s a compelling argument for both arms, though coming to a conclusion goes much deeper than taking a quick look at the numbers. Mostly because one is a tried-and-true relief pitcher and the other started games for the vast majority of the season.

Ultimately, it comes down to trust. And Dave Roberts and the Dodgers put an unreal amount of trust in Sasaki to close out games last October when his situation was much more uncertain. Now, Sasaki is not only a proven playoff performer, but he’s also revamped his arsenal, leveling up his already high-octane stuff.

Past Scott and the ever-consistent Alex Vesia, the bullpen has its fair share of concerns. Edgardo Henriquez‘s regular season came to a close with a back strain, and Edwin Díaz‘s season has been filled with injuries and poor performance—both arms that figured to throw high-leverage October innings.

Roberts may have to lean heavily on arms like Kris Bubic, Justin Wrobleski, Jack Dreyer, Evan Phillips, and Brock Stewart, which the Braves should be equipped to handle—at least better than the starting core.

Key Storylines: Braves

How Will The Rotation Hold Up?

After throwing 95 pitches over 6.1 innings in Game 1, Sale came back on just a day of rest to close out Game 3 in 1.1 innings and 21 pitches. Depending on who you ask, an unnecessary move with the Braves up four and Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias both available.

In an elimination game, the reasoning holds up. Plus, it would supposedly have been his bullpen day, so the pitch count isn’t necessarily an issue. But Sale isn’t a young, spry arm—he’s 37—and a playoff game is much different than a low-stakes bullpen session. This could inhibit his ability to start again in Game 2 on four days’ rest, or if he does, make him less effective.

At this point, we don’t know how the Braves’ rotation will shape up, but if Sale is limited to Game 3, Weiss will have to throw two of Holmes, Kerr, Ritchie, and potentially Elder away at Dodger Stadium. That’s not a recipe for success, especially matched up against the Dodgers’ starters.

Can The Braves’ Offense Get Through Another Elite Rotation?

While it wasn’t a full-out offensive explosion, the Braves handled the Phillies’ big three of Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, and Zack Wheeler well enough to see extended bullpen innings in the Wild Card. The three combined for 15.2 innings, 22 baserunners, and six runs.

But that was against labored arms, whereas the Dodgers are fully rested and the better unit. Atlanta primarily thrived on loud performances from Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, and a timely home run from Austin Riley. They’ll need their stars Ronald Acuna Jr., Drake Baldwin, and Matt Olson to heat up to contend with the Dodgers.

The best chance the Braves have is to get to the Dodgers’ bullpen. While the unit’s 3.67 FIP ranked third in the league, the Los Angeles relief corps is its weakest facet on paper. That’s no easy feat, though, against a battle-tested rotation with an ability to get deep into games.

Prediction

Dodgers in Three

Either way you slice it, this series ultimately comes down to how well Yamamoto, Skubal, and Snell pitch. It’s a tough group to bet against. If the Braves get to at least one of them, we’ll have a competitive series on our hands. But even if the Braves do chase a starter early, they still have to handle the Los Angeles offense, which is arguably the best in the league when at full strength.