Rays vs. Yankees: ALDS Preview
The Yankees dominated their way through the Wild Card series and will take on the AL-best Rays in the ALDS. Here's everything you need to know.
In a matchup of American League East titans, the AL’s best regular season team in the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the 27-time World Series champion New York Yankees in the 2026 ALDS.
The Yankees finished with the second-best record in the AL and made light work of the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card round, outscoring them 18-2 in a dominant two-game sweep.
The Rays entered the 2026 postseason with the best record in the American League and look to ride the hot bats of their star hitters as well as their standout pitching staff to punch their ticket to the ALCS. This won’t be an easy feat for either team, and it looks to be a matchup of two heavyweight squads.
Both teams boast 40-home run hitters in Junior Caminero and Ben Rice respectively, some of the best team offense in the league, and tremendous speed threats on the basepaths. With many of the best players in the American League playing for these two teams, there’ll be no shortage of entertainment or star power.
Here’s how they match up:
| Offense | RAYS | YANKEES |
| HR | 169 (22nd) | 223 (2nd) |
| RBI | 700 (13th) | 706 (10th) |
| AVG | .259 (T-1st) | .235 (26th) |
| OBP | .326 (T-5th) | .311 (24th) |
| SLG | .402 (T-13th) | .409 (T-6th) |
| OPS | .728 (8th) | .720 (T-11th) |
| wRC+ | 104 (T-5th) | 101 (T-14th) |
| fWAR | 23.9 (4th) | 21.3 (7th) |
| Pitching | RAYS | YANKEES |
| ERA | 3.72 (7th) | 3.24 (1st) |
| FIP | 4.04 (12th) | 3.71 (3rd) |
| K% | 22.3% (14th) | 24.3% (5th) |
| BB% | 6.9% (1st) | 8.2% (T-7th) |
| fWAR | 16.8 (8th) | 21.9 (5th) |
Starting Pitching
The Rays have one of the best rotations in baseball, and although they trail the Yankees in most pitching metrics, they have plenty of strong options to go with. Led by Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen this season, Tampa has had the third-best ERA in MLB from their starters (3.51) and getting the seventh-most fWAR (14.6).
Rasmussen is the Game 1 (and possibly Game 5) starter for the Rays, dominating the regular season with a 2.67 ERA and an AL-best 0.913 WHIP across 172 innings. Rasmussen’s +36 Run Value on his fastballs ranks in the 99th percentile of pitchers this season and he walked less than 5% of hitters he faced. With elite swing-and-miss stuff, he’ll be a tough matchup for the Yankees (career 1.81 ERA vs. NYY).
Martinez will factor in a major role during this series, as he went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season while making his first career All-Star team. He excels at limiting hard contact and walks, and should grade out well against a Yankees team as he’s limited them to just four runs across 16.2 innings in head-to-head matchups this season.
The Yankees are led by the likely 2026 AL Cy Young-winner Cam Schlittler who has been a force of nature on the mound, leading the American League in ERA (1.95) and fWAR (6.2). In his appearance in Game 1 of the Wild Card series vs. the Red Sox, he was incredible, tossing 6.1 innings of shutout baseball while allowing only two hits and one walk and striking out 10.
Their rotation also features the likes of Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Ryan Weathers, and Carlos Rodón, so they have reliable and strong starters going essentially every game of any given series. New York needs to get solid outings from their starters unlike last year’s ALDS. However, they won’t exactly be disappointed to have to go to their bullpen for some innings.
The Yankees have a solid advantage here, but the Rays have a top-heavy rotation that could easily swing some games in their favour.
Bullpens
Tampa’s bullpen has some of the best relievers in the American League, headlined by breakout closer Bryan Baker with his 1.44 ERA and 41 saves. Their relievers have boasted the second-best walk rate among AL teams with just an 8.3% rate of free passes.
With a great cast of supporting arms in Kevin Kelly (2.44 ERA), Cam Booser (1.99 ERA), and Tyler Wells (1.50 ERA), just to name a few, the Rays have a strong relief core. However, they’ll be relying on strong outings from their starters to minimize the number of innings they have to cover out of the bullpen. While Baker has been an incredible closing option this season, he might get overworked in this series if they have to go to him too often.
The Yankees have three relievers with an ERA below 2.50 and 65+ IP (David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, Brent Headrick), and they’re the only team in MLB with more than two relievers to reach these marks. This three-headed monster is a nightmare for opposing batters and they would feel great turning the ball over to these guys in the later innings of a game.
New York is obviously going to rely on strong starts from their top starters, but they won’t be afraid to dig into their bullpen. Yankees relievers had the second-best ERA at 3.18 and are tied for the fourth-best left-on-base rate in baseball (77.5%), making them a hard team to generate offense against late in games.
The Yankees have so many strong starting options that their bullpen, by proxy, gets even better because of it. Not only will they likely not have to rely on their pen as much as the Rays, but if they follow in the footsteps of many teams already this postseason, some starters can feature as elite leverage relief options.
New York has a clear lead here over the Rays, and if this series comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Yankees have very strong odds of coming out on top.
Key Storylines to Watch: Rays
Can The Rays’ Style of Offense Work in the Postseason?
The Rays have been no stranger to postseason struggles in recent seasons, having not won a playoff game since 2021 and being swept in both the 2022 and 2023 Wild Card series. They missed the postseason for the last two years, but were the best regular season AL team in baseball in 2026.
Tampa Bay had a league-best 18.8% strikeout rate as a team this season and had the most stolen bases of any American League team (164). It’ll be interesting to see how their style of play will factor in against the Yankees’ pitching staff which strives in striking out hitters, ranking in the top-five teams in MLB this season in K-rate.
The Rays like to create chaos on the basepaths with their ridiculously-fast lineup, and Yankees starting catcher Austin Wells has a -3 Caught-Stealing Above Average while throwing out just 14% of would-be base-stealers. Chandler Simpson alone has +8 Baserunning Runs this season, the second-best mark in the AL, so he’ll be the key baserunner to watch for the Rays.
If they can get him going, the Rays’ contact/baserunning approach will pay off very well.
Tampa’s Deadline Acquisitions Need to Continue Their Hot Stretches
The Rays had a busy trade deadline this season, notably acquiring starter Freddy Peralta, catcher Liam Hicks, and reliever Tyler Wells. All three of these players have improved upon their first-half stats by dominating in the second-half of the season, and the Rays are going to need them to continue doing so in the postseason.
Peralta was acquired from the Mets after posting a pre-trade ERA of 4.99, and he’s lowered it to a mark of just 3.25 with the Rays. He’s limited opposing hitters to just a .205 batting average against and lowering his walk rate by 2.5% in his time in Tampa, and they need him to perform like an ace this postseason.
Hicks improved in all areas of his triple-slash line since joining the Rays by hitting .288/.379/.440 and notching a 130 wRC+. Hicks has been a very reliable catching option for Tampa Bay and his stalwart approach at the plate is exactly what the Rays were looking for, as he led all catchers with a minuscule 9.9% strikeout rate this season.
Wells has been a great depth option for the Rays, pitching to a 1.50 ERA over 18 innings since the trade deadline. He’s been an elite multi-inning option for them since being acquired, and any extra bit of help goes a long way in the postseason.
Key Storylines to Watch: Yankees
Ride Cam Schlittler’s Dominance
Schlittler has a 0.87 ERA over his three career postseason starts and given the likelihood of him taking home the AL Cy Young award this season, the Yankees need to capitalize on his ability to shut down the opposition and score runs in his starts. In his regular season career, Schlittler has made five starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and has allowed eight earned runs over 27 innings of work (2.67 ERA), striking out 34 batters over this span.
The Yankees went 21-12 in Schlittler’s starts this season, yet he only allowed multiple earned runs in eight of his 33 outings. Suffice to say, New York needs to make the most of their ace’s games.
Schlittler’s four-seam fastball was the most valuable pitch of any AL pitcher this season with a +28 Run Value and a 34.8% whiff rate. He threw his fastballs 89.4% of the time in the regular season and has a combined +41 Run Value on his four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter, making him a unique weapon at the front of their rotation.
Two starts from Cam Schlittler should, in essence, equate to two wins for the Yankees. If he continues to perform the way he has all season, there’s no reason why New York shouldn’t come out on top on his start days.
Can the Team Continue Without a Healthy Aaron Judge?
Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge suffered some setbacks this season that left him appearing in just 66 games this season, the lowest full-season total of his career (excl. 2020).
Judge slashed .174/.208/.304 in his return and struck out in over half of his plate appearances. He did not appear for the Yankees in their Wild Card series matchup against the Red Sox, and any optimism concerning him being ready for the ALDS was also squashed Saturday morning.
Judge has a .822 OPS and 17 home runs in his postseason career and has a .946 OPS against the Rays across the last two seasons.
The Yankees went 52-43 in games without Judge in the lineup this season and there’s no secret that adding such an intimidating and potent hitter to their lineup would’ve posed an even bigger threat to the Rays’ pitching staff. New York has an amazing offensive group even without Judge, but who wouldn’t want a healthy Judge back in their lineup if possible?
“I have an opportunity to get ready […] That’s what I’ve been doing every day,” Judge told reporters following the Yankees’ Wild Card series victory over the Red Sox. Once he returns, he has the ability to instantly flip any matchup in the Yankees’ favor.
Prediction
These two teams are so neck-in-neck in virtually every way that it’s hard not to predict the series to go to five games.
The Yankees so quickly asserted themselves as the better team in the Wild Card series vs. the Red Sox and they look primed to continue this hot stretch in the ALDS.
New York’s ability to take over games with their overwhelming offense and incredible pitching staff just seems to be paramount in so many ways.
Yankees in five.
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Written by
Ethan has been writing for Just Baseball since 2024 and is fascinated by how sabermetric statistics can assist our understanding of outcomes and probability in baseball.…