What’s Going On With Manny Machado?
Manny Machado has looked like a shell of himself at the plate this season, and the Padres need him to figure it out before it's too late.
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Things are not going well for Manny Machado to open the 2026 season. He is an automatic out at the plate, and things are looking bleaker with each game.
He is currently slashing an abysmal .169/.254/.342, all of which would be career-worst marks by a significant margin. And there are plenty more of those to dive into.
His struggles are representative of the San Diego Padres offense as a whole, one that ranks last in average (.214), on-base percentage (.289), and slugging percentage (.355). Machado has long been a staple in San Diego’s lineup, but his brutal start — paired with struggling performances from several other Padres stars — has created a substantial problem for this offense.
But back to Machado, he looks lost at the plate. He is now dancing on a thin line between a bad start and a bad season.
Before getting into the potential reasons for the drop in Machado’s production, we have to understand how bad this season has been for him.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 8.
The Career Lows
I mentioned that he has had many more career lows, so let’s outline them to understand exactly how much of an outlier this season is.
If the season were to finish today, Machado would post career lows in expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
There isn’t a single pitch he is having success with, either. He is currently batting .200 against fastballs, .113 against breaking balls, and .172 against offspeed pitches. Unsurprisingly, each of those marks would be career lows as well.
Not having a single pitch type he can do damage against is causing a real issue for Machado. He’s historically been able to feast off fastballs, but that clearly has not been the case this season.
For example, against sinkers this season, Machado has a run value of -5, which is tied for the seventh-worst mark in all of MLB. After posting a +4 run value with a .391 batting average against sinkers last season, Machado’s average has dropped to a measly .143 against the pitch type this year.
While that is the most glaring example thus far, it’s largely a similar conversation across all pitch types for Machado in 2026.
Now that we have established the magnitude of season Machado is having, let’s dive into the potential causes.
What Is Causing Machado’s Struggles?
Machado is now 33 years old, so the first place to look is whether age is beginning to catch up to him.
Since bat speed tracking became publicly available in 2023, his bat speed has gradually declined. However, the drop from last season to this season has been just 0.2 mph. It is hard to believe a change that small would cause his OPS to fall from .795 to .596.
What about his approach?
Well, not much has changed there, either.
His chase rate and whiff rate are both nearly identical to last season’s marks. His strikeout rate has increased by four percent but that alone does not explain the gravity of his decline. If anything, Machado is actually walking more, with his walk rate up roughly two percent from a year ago.
So if it is not bat speed and it is not approach, where do we look next?
The answer may be in his swing mechanics.
Machado’s average attack angle has dropped from 8 degrees to 6 degrees, while his attack direction has shifted 1 degree toward the opposite field. Interestingly, this is the same attack angle he posted during his disappointing 2023 season.
Those changes help explain several trends. His ground-ball rate has jumped by 5.2 percentage points, while his 10.9 degree average launch angle would be the lowest of his career. He also ranks in the 20th percentile in both launch angle sweet-spot rate and squared-up rate, indicating that something is potentially going wrong with his timing.
Another wrinkle worth mentioning is how pitchers are attacking Machado differently.
He is seeing fastballs 4.6% more than he did a year ago. In turn, breaking balls and offspeed pitches are being thrown less. It’s not a significant increase, but pitchers could be trying to speed up Machado. It may help explain the increase in whiffs against breaking balls and chase on offspeed pitches.
Machado has also altered his setup, standing deeper in the batter’s box than he did last season. His average stance depth has increased from 24.7 inches to 27.4 inches. In theory, that should give him more time to identify pitches, but the results suggest otherwise.
Final Thoughts
The frustrating part about Machado’s season is that there is no obvious explanation.
His bat speed has barely changed. His chase and whiff rates are largely in line with previous seasons. There is no single metric that jumps off the page and explains why one of baseball’s most consistent hitters suddenly looks lost at the plate.
The most notable changes are in his batted-ball profile. His attack angle has flattened, his ground-ball rate has climbed, and the quality of his contact has plummeted. Whether those changes are the cause of his struggles or simply the result of something else remains difficult to determine.
Could age be playing a role? Maybe. Could he be dealing with an injury? That’s possible, too. But there is not enough evidence to confidently make either argument.
What makes this slump so unusual is that Machado does not look dramatically different from the player he was a season ago. The process is largely the same, yet the results have completely cratered.
As dismal as things look right now, it is difficult to believe a player with Machado’s track record will spend an entire season hitting below .200. There are not many metrics suggesting he has been particularly unlucky, so a massive rebound should not be expected. Still, players of his caliber have earned the benefit of the doubt.
Better days are likely ahead. Whether those days are enough to salvage the season, however, is a much different question.
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Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is now finishing up his schooling…