What Can The Giants Realistically Expect From Justin Verlander?

The San Francisco Giants completed one of the more intriguing acquisitions of the offseason by signing future first-ballot Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million deal. Verlander was the team’s second-biggest, and frankly only other, addition this winter, behind shortstop Willy Adames.

The Giants aimed to bolster their roster to help them compete more seriously in a tough National League West. While there is no question about Verlander’s resume, the reality is that he is going to be 42 years old for the entirety of this season, which raises questions about what he will realistically be able to bring to the table for San Francisco.

A Clear Mentor for the Next Wave

It’s almost impossible to ignore the fact that part of bringing in Verlander has to do with the Giants’ surplus of young, talented rotation options.

The situation seems similar to when the team brought in Randy Johnson in 2009, right before their dynasty years began with a World Series win in 2010. The presence of Verlander could bring irreplaceable mentorship and leadership for the next wave of Giants’ starters, similar to that of Johnson.

It is refreshing for the Giants that Verlander’s valuable experience and leadership could have a lasting impact on a franchise in a situation like San Francisco.

Despite that, it is a realistic possibility that his pure performance may be on the decline.

Still Aiming to Contribute

Unlike a ceremonial veteran signing, Verlander fully expects to be a meaningful contributor for the Giants this season. It is worth noting that he is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he posted a 5.48 ERA over 90.1 innings with a career low 0.7 fWAR and a mere 18.7% strikeout rate.

He has continued to reiterate that he still has plenty left in the tank and is ready to get back to where he was a few years ago. Verlander had this to say in an article by Susan Slusser:

“This is for sure the best I’ve felt in the last few years,” Verlander said. “I mean, ’22 was the last time I had a healthy ramp-up.”

Injuries hampered Verlander’s 2024 campaign as he dealt with neck and shoulder capsule issues. This eventually led the Astros to leave the postseason legend off of their playoff roster.

However, Verlander has been vocal about adjusting his offseason training and is hoping to be more durable and consistent this season.

An Encouraging Start to the Spring

Verlander has looked decent up to this point in the Arizona Cactus League, posting a 2.45 ERA across 11.0 innings with nine strikeouts, two walks, nine hits, and two home runs. While it is undeniably a small sample, early signs indicate that he is in line for a more stable season compared to his 2024.

However, Verlander’s advanced metrics from last season are concerning. His Baseball Savant page, once a sea of red (indicating elite production), is now mostly cold and blue.

His only elite metric in 2024 was his hard-hit rate, which ranked in the 92nd percentile. It is encouraging that he continued to induce weak contact, but there is no question that his effectiveness in piling up strikeouts has diminished significantly.

Realistic Expectations for 2025

All projection systems are pretty similar on what they expect Verlander to do this season. Most peg him for a low-4.00s ERA, with the OOPSY projections being the most optimistic at a 3.94 ERA. His innings are projected to be in the 117 to 141 range, showing that durability remains a concern.

The best-case scenario for the Giants would probably be getting around 140 innings with a high-3.00s ERA from Verlander, indicating a successful signing and motivation to bring him back. However, a more realistic expectation would most likely be around 120 innings at a low-4.00s ERA, something the Giants would likely settle for.

If the Giants get anything less, whether it’s due to injury or simply diminished performance, it would be a disappointment. The biggest concern continues to be his projected low strikeout numbers. If Verlander’s ability to miss bats continues to drop off, he may find himself being nothing more than a back-end starter at this point of his career.

Ultimately, signing Verlander was a calculated risk by San Francisco. If he is able to stay healthy and perform at a strong level, he can provide valuable innings along with an even more valuable presence for the team’s young arms.

However, if Verlander is unable to tap into his former Cy Young self, the Giants are prepared. The organization has a deep group of young pitchers ready to step in and prove themselves if Verlander falters or suffers another injury.

Either way, Verlander’s Hall of Fame career and competitive spirit make him and his 2025 campaign a fascinating storyline for the San Francisco Giants and their trajectory.