Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander isn’t planning on retiring anytime soon. The three-time Cy Young winner once said he’d like to pitch until he’s 45 years old. It’s unclear if that’s still in the cards, but he’ll be back on the mound for his age-42 season in 2025.

The 2024 campaign was rough for Verlander. In between multiple stints on the injured list, he pitched to a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts. His strikeout rate fell below 20% for the first time in more than a decade. He averaged fewer than six innings per outing for the first time in his career.

All that being said, there is reason to think he can bounce back in 2025. For one thing, this is Justin Verlander we’re talking about. He came back from a two-year layoff after Tommy John surgery and won a Cy Young in his age-39 season.

If anyone can bounce back to All-Star form at an age when most players have long since hung up their hats, it’s Verlander.

What’s more, Verlander was still masterful when it came to limiting hard contact in 2024. His hard-hit rate ranked in the 92nd percentile (per Baseball Savant), and his 3.78 xERA was much better than his 5.48 ERA.

On top of that, the pitch modeling system Stuff+ found Verlander’s pitches to be nastier across the board in 2024 than in 2023 (when he was still quite an effective pitcher).

Most other metrics weren’t nearly as kind to Verlander in 2024. His FIP, xFIP, SIERA, botERA, and DRA ranged from poor to very poor. I want to acknowledge that so no one accuses me of cherry-picking the numbers to make his season look better than it really was.

Rather, all I’m trying to say is that Verlander isn’t dead in the water. He could still be a highly effective starting pitcher in 2025.

Here are a few teams that could bet on Justin Verlander’s upside.

Houston Astros

Let’s get the boring answer out of the way first. The Astros clearly like Verlander, and Verlander clearly likes pitching for the Astros. They’ve already acquired him three times.

They’re also the only team to be formally linked to Verlander this offseason. In fact, it was Astros GM Dana Brown himself who told ESPN’s Buster Olney that he had engaged in preliminary conversations with Verlander’s agent.

There was a time when the Astros had an abundance of starting pitching depth, but that’s no longer true. Manager Joe Espada would have no trouble slotting Verlander into his rotation.

Toronto Blue Jays

There’s already a connection here. Before he re-signed with the Astros during the 2021-22 offseason, Verlander seriously considered signing with the Blue Jays instead. He had nothing but good things to say about Toronto when discussing his free agent decision with ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

“[The Blue Jays] were great,” he said. “…They were very proactive to the point that when I signed with Houston, I made sure to let them know that I appreciated it all.”

Could the Jays still be interested in Verlander?

GM Ross Atkins has already suggested he’ll be in the market to add at least one starter this offseason.

More to the point, it’s become quite apparent that the Blue Jays are chasing star power. They made a valiant effort to sign Shohei Ohtani last offseason, and rumor has it they’re going hard after Juan Soto this year.

Verlander is unlikely to offer the same level of production, but he’s a name that would put butts in seats at the Rogers Centre. Surely, Blue Jays fans would enjoy watching a future Hall of Famer for the first time since Roy Halladay.

Baltimore Orioles

Why might the Orioles be interested? They’ve pursued Verlander in the past (they were linked to him ahead of the 2023 trade deadline), and they need to add more starting pitching this winter.

As for Verlander? The only team closer to his hometown of Manakin-Sabot, Virginia is the Nationals, and he has a much better shot of making the playoffs next year with the Orioles.

Pundits tend to overestimate the importance of geography when it comes to free agents. Still, that doesn’t mean it’s a non-factor, especially for an older player like Verlander who has already made hundreds of millions of dollars and seems to be continuing his career for the love of the game as much as anything else.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are finally contenders again. They should have money to spend this winter, and the only locks in their rotation are Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson. But enough of that practical stuff; this landing spot is all about nostalgia.

My colleague Eric Treuden published a terrific piece earlier in the offseason about reunions baseball fans would love to see in 2025. Of the five pairings he picked, my favorite was Verlander and the Tigers.

Verlander helped the Tigers to their first-ever Wild Card berth in 2006, which was also the franchise’s first postseason appearance since 1987. He then helped them to four consecutive AL Central titles from 2011-14.

Verlander would surely receive a hero’s welcome upon his return to Detroit. There won’t be anywhere else where the fanbase would be as happy to see him.

From the Tigers’ perspective, ownership might like to increase the chances that Verlander someday goes into the Hall of Fame with a Tigers cap on his head. What better way to do that than to bring him back for (at least) one more postseason run?

More Landing Spots for Justin Verlander

San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants/Atlanta Braves

I’ve lumped these last three potential suitors together because the explanations for why each of them might pursue Verlander are so similar.

The Padres, Giants, and Braves are three more teams that expressed some interest in trading for Verlander at the deadline in 2023. None of them needs an ace, but all three could use a veteran arm for the back of the rotation.

The Giants could use the help the most, while the Padres (like the Blue Jays) are a team that loves chasing star power. Finally, the Braves could try to work whatever magic they used on Chris Sale to reawaken Verlander’s Cy Young form.