The Twins Will Go as Far as Their Bullpen Can Take Them

The Minnesota Twins are a solid team. They are currently a couple of games under .500, but they have their share of bright spots.

The offense is average, but Byron Buxton is putting together another monster season. Despite numerous injuries, the rotation continues to look like a top-10 unit in the league. One of the bleakest things about this team has been the bullpen.

The Twins bullpen has been horrific to start the year. For a team that was supposed to have playoff ambitions, a bullpen this bad could kill those ambitions. An ERA in the high-4.00s while also being near the bottom of the league in walk rate and strikeout rate is not a recipe for success.

This is a stark contrast from 2025 when the Twins had the seventh most valuable bullpen in baseball. How did they get here?

Last season, the Twins cleaned house at the trade deadline. Their four most valuable relievers by fWAR were all moved at the deadline. Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, and Danny Coulombe are all on different teams this year.

Despite that, Twins leadership continued to state publicly that they expected to compete for a playoff spot this year. They spent a total of $3 million dollars on the bullpen, signing Luis García, Taylor Rogers, and Dan Altavilla (minor league deal).

Rogers has been okay with an ERA of 3.72 in 19 innings, García has been atrocious with an ERA over 10, and Altavilla has not pitched in the majors.

While I would not advise the Twins spend a fortune on the bullpen, only spending $3 million after losing four great relievers feels like malpractice. Players like Sean Newcomb, Jacob Webb, and Colin Holderman all signed for less than five million dollars.

Hindsight is 20/20, and it’s easy to say that the Twins should have signed other players. In reality, they should have at a minimum invested more into this bullpen. Not doing so has put them in their current position.

Stats were taken prior to play on May 26.

Hot and Cold

The Twins bullpen has been not terrible over stretches this season. It has provided a pretty good indicator that it could be a key for success as the season wages on.

The Twins started the season going 11-9 over their first 20 games. This start had them leading the AL Central and only half a game behind the Rays for the best record in the American League. Over that stretch, the bullpen ranked 21st in both fWAR and ERA.

The Twins’ next 20 games were atrocious, as a record of 6-14 would send them to the bottom of the American League. Over that stretch, the bullpen ranked 28th in fWAR and ERA.

During the Twins’ last 14 games of the season, they are playing their best ball to this point. A 9-5 record has been assisted by a bullpen ranking sixth in ERA and second in fWAR. They currently sit in the final AL Wild Card spot.

While there are certainly more factors to the Twins’ success, the performance of the bullpen certainly feels the most critical. The loss of Taj Bradley in the rotation certainly played a role as well, but the Twins need to focus on the bullpen as the season progresses.

Let the Kids Eat

For those who are unaware, here is what the bullpen currently looks like:

The Twins have made some recent changes in the bullpen that were long overdue. Within three days of each other, they DFA’d both Luis García and Justin Topa. Both were really struggling with the Twins this season. Those moves allowed space for Travis Adams as well as Kendry Rojas, who moved from the rotation with Bradley’s return.

The Twins have three talented young arms in the bullpen now. With Adams, Rojas, and Andrew Morris, the potential is through the roof.

Adams was not good in the bullpen last season, and that could explain the hesitancy to give him another chance. In a limited sample, Adams has been nails for the Twins. He recorded his first career save on May 24 against Boston. Even with a 3.38 ERA, his peripherals have been excellent — a 2.39 xERA and 1.96 FIP indicate some bad luck as he has excelled at limiting contact.

The Twins still want Rojas and Morris to develop as starters. However, they are both going to be key players in the bullpen this season. Both have made only one start but have seen some lengthy work out of the bullpen.

Morris has a 4.57 ERA but his 3.49 xERA is reassuring. While he isn’t running the strikeout rate of an elite reliever, he has been excellent at limiting hard contact and barrels. A FanGraphs Stuff+ rating of 107 is a good sign that he can succeed in the bullpen, leaning heavily on a fastball and sweeper combination that have graded out very well.

Morris has good stuff, but Kendry Rojas has been flat-out disgusting. Morris is more refined as a pitcher, but Rojas has the stuff of a great reliever. Similar to Morris, he is relying on a great fastball that opposing batters are hitting .118 against. Rojas has been playing with fire, walking over six per nine, but it has not yet come back to bite him.

The Twins have the tough task of walking the tightrope between player development and winning now. They need to rely on these young arms this season while also setting them up for roles in the rotation moving forward.

Prioritize the Deadline

While the trade deadline is still almost two months away, the Twins should prioritize the bullpen when it arrives.

The offense could use a piece or two, but it feels as if the best additions will be made internally. As for the rotation, a player who could truly make a difference will likely be out of the Twins’ price range.

Bullpen pieces, especially expiring bullpen pieces at the deadline, are often inexpensive. Not having to part ways with premier prospect capital while obtaining a solid piece should make a lot of sense for the Twins.

Not to get too far ahead, but some players that could make sense would be a Matt Strahm, Bryan Abreu, or Pete Fairbanks.

If the bullpen continues to trend upward with the younger arms getting some more run, adding another arm or two into the fire could set the Twins up for success. Ultimately, it is really starting to look like the bullpen could be this team’s saving grace or its downfall.