Took the day off on Sunday which will likely be my last off-day for months with the NFL returning. We lost our play on Saturday as the Cardinals didn’t score a run. The Twins did everything they could to try and get us there, but St Louis ruined it.

Today, we are back with two picks I love to start the week. Let’s roll.

2024 Record: 105-110 (-8.74 U)

Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (3.91 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (4.47 ERA)

My initial instinct was to look to bet the Twins to win on the ML in this game. However, with how the Twins bullpen has been scheduled over the past few games, I can only trust this team to hold a lead on time. I thought about going with the Twins through the first five innings because I think they can score off Fried, but I don’t love Ober’s matchup either. We got another hot one today in Minnesota, and I know the over didn’t hit the last time we took it, but it’s hitting today.

Let’s start with why the Twins should have success today on offense. I project that most runs come against Max Fried, but this Twins offense is so good that they can hit anybody. The Twins don’t get the “home/road splits” buzz like the Royals do, but their numbers are much better when playing in Minnesota.

This season, the Twins are the number two offense by wRC+ against righties at home and the number one offense against lefties at home. Against lefties on the road, the wRC+ falls 22 points to 105, and the wRC+ against right-handers falls even farther down to 95. Regardless, Fried puts the Twins in their preferred split this year, and they are the best offense versus southpaws at home in the league.

Fried has major command issues this season, and he’s surrendered a .911 OPS against left-handed hitting. The Twins have a lot of powerful righties, but I love how the lefties in the lineup should be able to square up Fried as well. It will be primarily right-handed bats against Fried, but the lefties that make it in the lineup shouldn’t have many issues.

Fried hasn’t faced most of the Twins lineup, but the players who have seen him have performed. Kyle Farmer is hitting .333 with a .319 xBA. Margot has a .706 xBA in a few ABs, and Carlos Santana is 1-7, but he has a .365 xBA because he’s consistently barrelled Fried when he’s faced them.

The Twins have also been crushing lefties lately, no matter the ballpark. Over the last two weeks, they rank fifth in both wRC+ and OPS and fourth in ISO. With the free passes Fried is allowing, we should see a big hit or two with runners on base.

The Braves bullpen is outstanding, but so is the Twins offense. I’m willing to battle them for a run or two, and that’s all I think we’ll need to be in a good spot. Remember, we are betting over 7.5, not trying to get over nine. I project three runs against Fried, and we should get another run against this bullpen with the upside for more scoring from the Twins.

Can the Braves offense show up enough to get us there? I think so, and it will be on the role players in this one. The bulk of the Braves offense has yet to see Ober, but their acquisitions have. Whit Merrifield is 4-10 with a double and a triple, rocking a .321 xBA. Gio Urshela is 3-5, and Adam Duvall is 1-3 with a home run.

Bailey Ober has been excellent, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher throwing in a park calling for offense today. The Braves offense could have been better this season, but they are fourth in home runs against right-handed pitching this year. With a total this low, we only need one long ball with runners on base to hit this easily. His 3.88 xFIP tells me that home runs will eventually come for Ober, which should be the spot for it.

Even if Ober does pitch well, the Braves can face a bullpen without their studs today. If Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands were rested, I’d likely be on the Twins. They aren’t, as Duran and Jax have thrown on back-to-back days, and Cole Sands threw 26 pitches yesterday. Even Jorge Alcala, who’s been regressing, threw 25 pitches three days ago. The Twins will likely have to go into the bottom of their bullpen, which is a terrible unit.

Think about how bad the bottom of the Twins bullpen must be if they rank 22nd in bullpen ERA since July 1st, and that’s with Sands, Jax, and Duran dominating. If the Braves can’t score against them, they should close up shop on the season. I also don’t see Ober dominating; I project two runs over six innings for the right-hander, an average stat line over his last two months on the mound.

It’s also boiling today in Minnesota, hitting the system that failed us last time. It’s profitable long-term for a reason: the ball starts flying at Target Field when we have elevated temperatures. When the temperature is above 76 degrees, and the total is between 7 and 8.5, the over is 98-76-4 (56.3%). It was 10-5 before we took the loss on Saturday, so now it’s 10-6 this season.

I would bet this over to 8 (-105), as I project four runs from each team, and the first one to five may win the game. You can pivot to the Twins’ first five ML if the line gets too expensive on the over, as I am showing a bit of value on that line to -125. I would also consider a Twins’ first five-run line bet at +120 or better. The best value is the over; let’s see some runs.

The Pick: Braves vs. Twins Over 7.5 (-120) Risk 1.2 Units

Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Edward Cabrera (5.65 ERA) vs. TBD (— ERA)

The Rockies’ “TBD” is projected to be Ryan Feltner returning from the IL. If it’s not, we’ll likely get some opener before Feltner comes in. Regardless, I didn’t press the “action” button for Feltner because I don’t see any edge in whether he starts or comes in after. This is about playing a system on the Rockies, tailing the rested bullpen, and betting on the better offense.

The biggest bet of my life is the under 78.5 wins for the Miami Marlins, and with a loss today, we look it in with the Marlins’ 84th loss of the season. Is that influencing this pick? Not really, we could have taken the Cubs yesterday, but I didn’t. I’m taking the Rockies today, though, for multiple reasons.

Let’s start with the system(s) because there are multiple here. If you fade the Marlins in the first game of any series since 2020, you are 70-26, and you’ve won eight of your last ten bets. That’s taking a three-year sample, but just this year, the Marlins are 7-26 in the first game of a series.

Beyond the Marlins’ being terrible in the first game, the Rockies tend to have a leg up in the first game when both teams travel in. That system is 272-274, and usually, the Rockies are underdogs in this spot.

When that road team made the playoffs last year, and they aren’t in the NL West, the Rockies ML is 49-33 in this spot, and they are 5-0 this season for a total ROI of 27%. The historical trends tell us to back the Rockies blindly without any other analysis.

However, I’d be making this bet even without those systems. My brain will never let me tail a system if the matchup doesn’t make sense, but this one does.

Edward Cabrera has yet to learn where the ball is going once it leaves his hands. His 13% walk rate is in the fifth percentile. It’s already easy to hit at Coors Field, but when you’re allowing that many free passes, it can go bad really quickly. Cabrera used to be able to skate by with elite stuff that helped him rack up strikeouts and keep the hard contact down.

That has yet to be the case for him this season. The walks are still very much there, but his 45.9% Hard-Hit rate is in the sixth percentile, which is 10% higher than last year. He threw at Coors last year and allowed three runs over six innings. I can’t see him outperforming that today with his downtick in production.

Following Cabrera will be a horrific Marlins bullpen. Since the trade deadline, this bullpen has a 5.91 ERA, ranking 27th in the league. It’s a young bullpen, as most of the quality arms were traded at the deadline, so it will likely be a lot of their first time pitching there. Good luck.

The Rockies can hit righties at home. They have a .769 OPS against right-handed pitching at home this season, which ranks ninth in the league. Since July 1st, they have an .823 OPS, ranking seventh in the league. Since August 1st, they have a .751 OPS, which ranks 14th. This team can score against righties at home.

The Marlins OPS against righties is under .700 since August began. They also have a lot of young players who have never played at Coors Field before. The altitude affects the ball’s flight, so if you’ve never seen it, it can trip you up early.

The Rockies have the better offense, and I honestly prefer their bullpen game plan with Feltner returning over a young Miami staff where many are making their Coors debut. The Rockies are 29-33 at home this year, a better record than the Red Sox have in Fenway. The Marlins are terrible on the road; they have the third-worst record only after the Rockies and White Sox.

The Rockies will secure a unit for us in the short term and lock in our five-unit win total.

The Pick: Rockies ML (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.