Is the Twins’ Early Success Sustainable?

The Twins were 3-6 through their first nine games. Despite it being early, they looked like they could be in for a disappointing season.

They have played 10 games since and only lost two. That 10-game stretch included a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers, who were the pre-season favorites to win the division. On April 17, the Twins find themselves at 11-8, tied for the best record in the American League.

It is incredibly early; we are not even a month into the season. Nevertheless, the Twins are currently on pace for 94 wins, which would undoubtedly get them into the playoffs and likely win the AL Central.

The question is whether or not this team can sustain its current level of success. Everyone knows that the baseball season is a marathon. The Twins have started seasons hot in the past. Last year, on June 1, the Twins were 31-27 and in a Wild Card spot, but they finished 70-92. In 2024, they were 74-62 on September 1 and looked like a lock for the playoffs… before finishing 8-18.

There is a reason that less than 5% of Twins fans had an optimistic outlook heading into the season. Safe to say that number has grown, but could we all be in for another letdown of a season?

Stats updated prior to games on April 16.

The Bats Are on Fire

The Twins’ recent run has been largely fueled by a surge from the lineup. They currently have nine players with a wRC+ above 100, including Austin Martin (184) and Tristan Gray (152). Some other notable numbers include Martin’s walk rate of 23.1% and Ryan Jeffers‘ wRC+ of 154.

There has been a lot of help from some unexpected sources thus far. However, the Twins also have some names off to slow starts. Most notably, Luke Keaschall and Matt Wallner have struggled. They have wRC+ marks of 63 and 81, respectively.

As the season goes on, we could see some of the hot bats come back down to earth, but we could also see improvement from others. If there is a reason to be optimistic about the Twins’ current form continuing, it is this offense. It should not be a surprise if they finish as a top 10 unit in the league.

Bats Worth Believing In

Austin Martin is a player certainly worth highlighting for the Twins. He is a player with a very unique skill set that has been the Twins’ surprise of the season thus far.

Martin has built off a strong finish to his 2025 season. He had a 113 wRC+ in 50 games and was one of six players in baseball to have a walk rate over 12% and a strikeout rate under 18% (min. 180 PA).

This season, Martin has picked up right where he left off. It is early, but he is currently walking almost 10% more than he is striking out. He is hitting .316 with a .500 OBP and has a 184 wRC+. His strike zone awareness, coupled with a 91.8% zone contact rate, should prevent him from slumping too badly.

His 0.6 fWAR puts him on pace for 5.1 fWAR (assuming he keeps his current pace of 145 games played). That is likely unsustainable, but 3.0 fWAR for Martin should not be out of the question.

Another name building off of a solid 2025 season is Ryan Jeffers. He was solid last year, playing the second-most games of his career and posting a 113 wRC+. This year, his power numbers are up; he has improved his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.

Jeffers is a player who has always made good swing decisions. Now, at 28 years old, he seems to be tapping into a little more power. If that holds over the rest of the season (no reason to think it wouldn’t), he could end up posting the best season of his career by fWAR.

It is important to note that the Twins are getting contributions from everywhere. As noted, they have nine players with a wRC+ over 100. They currently rank third in MLB in home runs but do not have a single player with more than three. They rank third in RBIs as well, and no one has more than 14, but they have seven players with at least eight.

In years past, this offense has felt like the Byron Buxton show. While it is safe to say that Byron Buxton is going to do what Byron Buxton does, if the Twins continue to pick each other up and share the wealth, it is hard to see the offense slowing down.

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Can the Pitching Staff Keep Up?

If there is a reason to be concerned about the Twins moving forward, I would draw your attention to the pitching staff. To this point in the season, the staff has been average. They rank middle of the pack in a number of key statistics as a team.

The Twins pitching staff is currently 19th in ERA, 19th in K/9, 14th in BB/9, and 10th in FIP. To no one’s surprise, the rotation is holding up a lot of those numbers.

Even if the offense stays hot, there are a couple of reasons to be concerned about this pitching staff.

Causes for Concern

As mentioned, there is a stark contrast between the bullpen and rotation. That is the first reason to be concerned. Here are some key stats and where the two rank respectively:

The Twins have arguably a top-10 rotation thus far, coupled with a bottom-10 bullpen. It is not unheard of for a strong rotation to overcome a subpar bullpen. However, the lack of workhorses in the rotation and a lack of overall pitching depth are cause for concern.

The Twins do not have a workhorse in this rotation. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are the only pitchers in the organization to have thrown more than 150 innings in a major league season, and neither has gone over 180 innings. For a rotation that is currently fifth in innings, that doesn’t feel sustainable. Where are those innings going to come from?

As the season wears on and the Twins’ pitchers begin to approach their career highs in innings, the bullpen is going to have to be utilized more heavily. That is not good news for the Twins.

Entering the season, the Twins had a ton of starting pitching depth. Now, with Pablo López out for the season and David Festa on the 60-day injured list, that is no longer the case. They still have Zebby Matthews in the minors, but next in line would likely be rookies Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas. Also, other than Marco Raya, there is not any player you would feel good about being added to the bullpen.

This all points towards the bullpen usage increasing as the season moves on. That does not bode well for the Twins.

The second cause for concern is a flaw that both the rotation and bullpen have. The Twins’ pitching staff is currently playing with fire when it comes to home run luck.

If you look at the Twins’ stats as a staff and how they rank among the 29 other teams, you will come across something really interesting. That is the fact that the Twins rank 28th in groundball rate, but fourth in HR/9 and third in HR/FB. This is why they have one of the largest discrepancies between FIP and xFIP in baseball.

Now, you might think to yourself that the Twins are just really good at limiting hard contact. That would make sense and explain why they are so good at preventing home runs, only that is not true. The Twins are relatively average as a pitching staff when it comes to their quality of contact numbers.

They are 17th in average exit velocity allowed, seventh in barrel% allowed, and 12th in hard hit rate allowed. This should be worrisome for the Twins. It is incredibly unlikely that they are going to be able to avoid being bitten by the home run ball forever.

The current performance by the pitching staff is, in all likelihood, not sustainable. How the Twins manage the staff is going to be very important if they want to maximize it over 162 games.

The Twins’ Secret Weapon

The Twins have had a weapon up their sleeve this season, and it could be a huge reason for their early success. You likely already know what it is (it’s not much of a secret anymore), but if you don’t, no team has taken advantage of ABS like the Twins.

The new Automatic Balls and Strikes challenge system has introduced a new element to the league. The Twins have implemented a strategy, and thus far, it is proving incredibly successful.

Baseball Savant has a new page dedicated to ABS challenges. There you can find a lot of interesting information. With regards to the Twins, you might not be surprised to find out that they lead the league in challenges at 61. The Rockies are in second place at 50. The Twins are averaging just over 3.0 challenges per game.

Despite being 11th in challenge win percentage at 57%, no team has won more challenges than the Twins, who have won 35. The Rockies are again in second place at 28.

While batting, the Twins are first in challenges (31) and challenges won (15) but 13th in success percentage (48%). Baseball Savant has applied a run value to challenges, and the Twins are in first place by a country mile when it comes to challenges while batting. Their 1.5 run value is 0.8 runs ahead of the Rays in second.

While pitching, the Twins are not first in challenges (30) or challenges won (20), but they are second. They are 12th in success percentage (67%). Again, their 2.2 run value is in first place by a wide margin. The Royals’ mark of 1.6 is second.

The Twins clearly have a strategy for ABS, and so far, it is working brilliantly. The front office, coaching staff, analytics staff, or whoever is the architect of this ABS strategy needs their flowers. The Twins took this rule change in stride and have found a way to maximize it and find a competitive advantage.

In such a small sample, it is unclear how much this has played a role in the team’s hot start. However, over a full season, it will become clear just how much the Twins’ ABS success is affecting their overall success.

Can the Twins Keep it Up?

While it may be a cop out, only 19 games into the season, the answer to that question is a big fat maybe. Will the Twins maintain a 94-win pace? Most people would likely tell you no, even the most optimistic of Twins fans. Can they win 86-90 and make the playoffs? Maybe.

Even after this hot start, FanGraphs isn’t buying it. Their playoff odds have the Twins at just 44.3% currently. That’s a lot higher than they were before the season started, but still below 50%.

There are certainly reasons for concern, but there are also reasons for optimism. A player like Austin Martin building off a really solid 2025 is a great reason to be optimistic. Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, and Taj Bradley looking like the best versions of themselves is a great reason to believe in this team.

A subpar bullpen is a good reason to be concerned. Injuries to both key pitchers and depth options are more reasons to worry.

Ultimately, it is way too early to tell. However, if the Twins keep this up, they can win back a lot of their fans who quit on the team due to ownership’s lack of support.