Top Notes from the Rays ZiPS Projections for 2025

Despite plenty of factors working against them – one of the league’s lowest payrolls, minimal attendance/revenue, playing in the AL East – the Tampa Bay Rays always seem to find themselves in the playoff mix. Sadly, 2024 was the first time in six years that they didn’t actually make it to the postseason.

The Rays fell out of contention for a division title early, but they were in the Wild Card race up through the final week of the season. They were ultimately eliminated from contention on the fifth to last day of the season, finishing 80-82 for their first losing season since 2017.

Tampa Bay will have another chance to find itself back in the mix in 2025, thanks to its always-strong internal development. Even other organizations recognize the job the Rays do, as a recent poll of front office execs rated theirs the second-best farm system in baseball.

That farm system will need to come into play this season. The Rays have some areas that have to be better to get back to a winning record in 2025, and they didn’t make a ton of offseason moves to improve their weaknesses. So, how does a roster that looks a lot like last year’s squad project to do in 2025?

ZiPS has at least one answer for us. The ZiPS player projection model was created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs and has been one of the top baseball projection systems over the years. In this article, we’ll take a look at the projections for the Rays and see what the system has in store for them in 2025.

Rays ZiPS: Position Players

After fielding a top-five offense in 2023, the Rays took a huge step back in 2024, finishing second to last in run production at 3.73 runs per game. A couple of external improvements were made, but most of the improvement will have to come internally if Tampa is to get back to an offensive level that competes with the rest of a fierce division.

• The Carson Williams era is almost upon us – The top prospect in the Rays’ system and the 28th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Williams was a Southern League All-Star in 2024 as he hit .256 with an .821 OPS, 20 doubles, 20 homers, and 33 steals for Double-A Montgomery.
  
  Even without having reached the Triple-A level yet, ZiPS believes he can get the job done in the majors. It projects him for a 3.3 fWAR on a .229 average and a 103 wRC+, not to mention 18 homers, 70 RBIs, and 17 steals in 121 games. If Williams actually came anywhere close to that as a guy who hasn’t even turned 22 yet, the Rays would be absolutely ecstatic.

• Junior Caminero will improve, but will he fully break out? – Speaking of a No. 1 Rays prospect, that title belonged to Caminero until he graduated prospect status last year. The Tampa infielder has actually played in parts of two seasons already, even though he is a year younger than Williams, and owns a .246 average and 101 wRC+ in 50 career MLB games.
  
  Caminero has the talent to eventually put up some big slugging numbers as a major leaguer, but ZiPS doesn’t have him all the way there yet. A .257 average, 113 wRC+, 20 homers, 71 RBIs, and a 2.3 fWAR to top everything off would be a big step forward and a great thing for the Rays’ offense, but ZiPS thinks the monster year will have to wait until he gets some more experience under him.

• ZiPS likes the upgrade at catcher – The catching position was not particularly kind to the Rays in 2024. Tampa catchers finished 23rd in MLB with a combined 1.2 fWAR and tied for 27th in MLB with a lowly 67 wRC+.
  
  Ben Rortvedt, who played the most games at the position for the Rays last year, returns. But he will team up with MLB vet Danny Jansen, a slightly more offensively inclined backstop who was signed in the offseason. ZiPS likes that tandem to perform much better than last year, with them projected to combine for more middle-of-the-road production.

• How will playing time shake out in the outfield? – Outfielders Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri combined to play 482 games for the Rays over the past two seasons. Both have since been traded elsewhere, the former at last year’s trade deadline and the latter in the offseason. So, how do things look now heading into 2025?
  
  ZiPS pegs a whole host of outfielders to be in the mix for playing time this year, including Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Jonny DeLuca, Richie Palacios, and even minor leaguers Jake Mangum and Chandler Simpson. White Sox and Orioles castoff Eloy Jiménez is also in camp as a non-roster invitee. So, will a few specific players step forward to lead the outfield, or will it be a true group effort?

Rays ZiPS: Pitching Staff

Pitching has been the bread and butter of the Rays for years; they have ranked among the top 10 in MLB in team ERA every season since 2017. That shouldn’t be any different here in 2025. The only question is just how high the pitching staff can soar if health actually works out in their favor this year.

• ZiPS is playing it safe with a talented Rays rotation – Led by potential Cy Young contender and bounce-back candidate Shane McClanahan, Tampa has one of the top starting rotations in the league…when healthy. That health question is likely why ZiPS likes the team’s rotation for 2025 but isn’t projecting monster seasons for any of the pitchers.
  
  McClanahan is projected for 2.3 fWAR this season, but no other pitcher is expected to come in higher than 2.0. On top of that, the most innings any starter is projected to pitch is 137, courtesy of Taj Bradley. Recent injury trends and workload likely feed into those numbers, so if health works in the Rays’ favor, look to see multiple projections get beaten.

• Edwin Uceta to take a big step back? – Every year, it seems like a new reliever comes out of nowhere to put up a huge season for the Rays. Last year, it was Edwin Uceta, who shoved as he pitched in a number of roles, including set-up and fill-in closer. He put up a 1.51 ERA, a 0.816 WHIP, and a 35.8% strikeout rate in 41.2 innings.
  
  In his first year in Tampa, Uceta pitched more innings than in the rest of his MLB career combined (40.1). That’s probably why ZiPS takes a toned-down approach with him for 2025, projecting a 3.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Odds are he lands somewhere between those numbers and his overly impressive 2024 stats.

• ZiPS wants to see more when it comes to Hunter Bigge – Another reliever who put in impressive work for the Rays last year, albeit in a much smaller sample size, was Bigge. The 26-year-old was brought in from the Cubs at the trade deadline and pitched to a 2.60 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, and 32.9% strikeout rate over 17.1 innings in his debut MLB season.
  
  That was too small of a sample size for ZiPS to commit to Bigge as a top reliever, as it projects him at a 4.14 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate in 2025. That ERA and WHIP would actually sit closer to his career minor league averages of 4.29 and 1.419, respectively. His sophomore season will give good insight as to whether he ends up closer to those or his rookie numbers.

• Joe Rock to be a big 2025 contributor? – ZiPS has seven pitchers that it thinks can crack 1.0 fWAR for the 2025 season. Among some recognizable names from last year’s staff is Joe Rock, the 68th-overall pick of the Rockies in 2021. He came over to the Rays via trade last year and is an organizational top-30 prospect who has yet to make his MLB debut, though he was added to the 40-man in November.
  
  The question is where he will contribute. RosterResource already has at least six pitchers ahead of him on the rotation depth chart, but Rock has worked almost strictly as a starter in the minors.
  
  Still, ZiPS thinks he can pitch 125.1 innings, with other projections pegging him for way less. So, will that be in the rotation? In the bullpen as a long reliever? Will he actually bide his time in the minors and wait for an injury? He’s likely to make his debut this year, it’s just a matter of how.

Rays ZiPS: Final Thoughts

Even the best teams take a step back every once in a while, which is just what happened to the Rays in 2024. Then again, when you have more than one injured starting pitcher and an offense that bottoms out, it’s hard not to end up with a disappointing season. It’s honestly impressive they didn’t finish worse than they did.

But the Rays are a quality organization with exceptional internal development, so it’s no surprise that they have plenty of players projected for good seasons. That may only have FanGraphs predicting an 82-80 season for them, but even in a loaded division, that would have them within five games of the top spot.

Tampa Bay has made it a habit of outperforming the projections in the past and will look to do the same in 2025. Based on this team’s history, who are we (or ZiPS) to doubt the Rays?