Can the Tampa Bay Rays Beat Their Win Total Projection in 2025?

The Tampa Bay Rays have been a model franchise for consistently fielding a competitive roster at a low payroll. Since 2008, when they made the World Series, the Rays have come in last place in the mighty American League East once.

Every year, the Rays are towards the bottom of the league in payroll and attendance. Forced to clash with rivals 13 times per season who pay their rosters more than double, the Rays rise to the challenge.

A lot of the credit goes to their management for this feat. Current president of baseball operations, Erik Neander, has overseen winning records in six out of eight seasons during his tenure.

Neander is best known for finding diamonds in the rough. He operates by targeting underappreciated free agents, waiver claims, or trade targets, who provide their services at a good value. The Neander-led Rays have agreed to just one contract with a total value of $100 million or more.

In 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays finished 80-82, their second-worst showing under Neander’s leadership. In this piece, all angles of the team will be considered to see whether they will be trending up this coming season.

Projected Win Total

According to BetMGM, the Rays’ current projected win total is 80.5.

The books don’t seem to know what to make of a team who is undergoing a lot of short-term circumstantial changes, with a relatively similar roster.

By projecting the Rays to finish the same as they did in 2024, the sportsbooks are putting the ball in your court to justify whether this team is better or worse off in 2025.

Let’s investigate those changes that will make the Rays’ 2025 season different from that of every other team in Major League Baseball.

A New, Temporary Home

The Rays will call the New York Yankees’ spring training ballpark, Steinbrenner Field, their home field for this coming season. Their usual home ballpark since 1998, Tropicana Field, suffered damage to the roof from Hurricane Milton that renders the location unplayable until further repairs take place.

Fortunately for the Rays, they won’t have to go far to find their new home field. Steinbrenner Field is located in the heart of downtown Tampa, which might actually be more convenient for residents of the city to attend games.

Steinbrenner Field has the exact same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, but due to coastal winds and higher temperatures, it could play more like a hitter’s park over the course of a full season.

“The Trop” was the second-most friendly park for pitchers in 2024, so it seems likely that offense could be on the rise in Rays games in 2025.

Due to Florida weather concerns, the Rays will be playing a schedule like no other MLB team in 2025. To start the season, the Rays will be playing 28 of their first 40 games at home.

Once the summer hits and Florida rain will be rolling through just about daily, they will play just 16 out of 51 of their games at home in the months of July and August.

It remains to be seen how weeks away from home during the dog days of summer will affect the Rays, which is another complication in predicting if they will beat their projected win total.

Notable Offseason Transactions

11/18: Traded OF Jose Siri to the New York Mets for RHP Eric Orze

12/12: Signed C Danny Jansen (1 year, $8 million)

12/14: Traded LHP Jeffrey Springs and LHP Jacob Lopez to the Athletics for RHP Joe Boyle, 1B Will Simpson, RHP Jacob Watters, and a Competitive Balance Round A Draft Pick

12/23: Signed DH Eloy Jimenez to a minor league contract

Current Position Players

The Rays will retain much of their roster from the 2024 season. Here is their projected 26-man roster, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource.

On paper, this Rays lineup is among the weaker units in the league. Only five of the 13 batters above posted a wRC+ greater than 100 in 2024.

Last season, the Rays scored 604 runs (29th in MLB) and slashed .230/.302/.366, all three of those figures were among the worst in the sport. Improving to just a league-average offense would be a boost towards helping Tampa Bay reach a winning record.

If former top prospect Caminero can break out into a middle-of-the-order bat, that would be a massive plus. In his 43 MLB games last season, Caminero flashed top-tier bat speed and a good barrel rate while striking out at an average clip (21.5%).

The anchor of this lineup is Diaz, who has posted a wRC+ of 110 or greater in the past four seasons. Consistently good at avoiding strikeouts and hitting the ball hard on a line, the Rays will rely on Diaz’s steady production again in 2025.

Josh Lowe hit 20 home runs and stole 32 bases in 2023, but his 2024 season was less successful. After missing the start of 2024 with oblique and hamstring injuries, Lowe saw his wRC+ drop from 130 in 2023 to 98 this past season. The Rays hope that getting Lowe back to form will add a needed contributor back into the middle of the order.

Danny Jansen was added to try and fortify the Rays’ catching corps, after a dreadful year this past season. Ben Rortvedt, the team’s primary catcher last season, hit just three home runs in 112 games. Adding Jansen, who had a down year last season (89 wRC+), still increases the offensive floor of this group.

Christopher Morel, in 2023, hit 26 home runs in just 107 games with the Cubs. He has loud tools – a lightning-quick bat and a strong arm, but posted just an 82 wRC+ in 2024.

Morel will be given the chance to play out of the gate and if he rekindles his 2023 form, it would be a huge boost to this lineup.

Another piece of this lineup that could help the Rays improve upon 2024 is Jonathan Aranda.

Aranda’s 16.5% barrel rate in 143 plate appearances would have been among the best qualified hitters. Projected as a designated hitter on Opening Day, Aranda could also provide defensive flexibility at first and second base.

The biggest problem here is the bottom of the Rays’ lineup. They got good defense up the middle from Jonny DeLuca (77 wRC+) and Taylor Walls (60 wRC+), but not enough offensively last season. If they could land a league-average bat at one of these two spots, that would be a big improvement.

For the Rays to hit their over win total, they will have to be better than they were in 2024. However, since they are playing at a home field that will likely have friendlier confines offensively, the Rays offense should produce at a higher level this coming season.

The Makings of a Great Starting Rotation

Here is the Rays’ projected starting rotation, per Roster Resource.

The strength of the Rays last season was their pitching.

At 80-82, they were ninth in team ERA at 3.77. The next best team ERA for a losing team was the Cincinnati Reds, who finished 18th at 4.09.

It’s clear that this staff, which will return all of their best pitchers and gets their former ace back from injury, needs to be on point to get the Rays back to being a winning team.

Shane McClanahan, who will return from Tommy John surgery this season, is the team’s ace.

In each of his three seasons in the majors, McClanahan has pitched to a sub-3.50 ERA and struck out opposing hitters above a 25% clip. His return will be a huge addition to this team.

Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, and Shane Baz are all high-upside inexperienced starters with much to prove still at the major league level. Bradley can blow it by hitters with high-velocity offerings but has a propensity to give up hard contact.

Pepiot pitched to a solid 3.60 ERA in 26 starts and appears to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm. Baz, once a highly ranked prospect, has dealt with many injuries but worked up to 79.1 innings in the majors last season, with a 3.06 ERA.

The Rays will count on these guys to step up and fill out the rotation with quality innings.

The Rays’ 2024 leader in fWAR was Isaac Paredes at 3.0, despite playing just 101 games before being traded. However, did you know that the second highest fWAR from a Rays player last season belonged to Zack Littell?

Littell, who posted a 2.3 fWAR, was a reliable source of innings for the team all season. If he can continue to limit walks and give the team quality innings, he will be valuable given the volatility of some of these other young arms.

It isn’t unrealistic to think that a six-man rotation could be in the works for 2025. The Rays will be looking to manage the innings of many of these pitchers, including Drew Rasmussen.

Rasmussen, who has been very effective in his Rays tenure, returned late last season from an internal brace procedure. He could be used as a traditional starter, or as a bulk innings pitcher in more of a bullpen game.

Changes to the team’s home field and travel schedule will test the Rays’ pitching staff in new ways. However, this rotation has the talent to overcome those hardships and still produce at an above-average level.

Tampa Always Has a Good Bullpen…

Pete Fairbanks, the team’s projected closer, has been the face of this Rays bullpen for years.

A sizzling fastball and diving slider have guided Fairbanks to back-to-back 20-save seasons. Fairbanks has never had great command, but a concern is that his strikeout rate dropped from 37% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024.

His role as closer may not be safe if he continues to struggle with missing bats at an elite level.

The breakout of Edwin Uceta in 2024 adds competition to the closer role for manager Kevin Cash. In 41 2/3 innings, Uceta pitched to a 1.51 ERA and struck out 35.8% of the batters he faced. He had a phenomenal breakout season and figures to be a crucial piece of the Rays’ late-inning mix.

As for the rest of the bullpen, the Rays have an assortment of hard throwers on their projected major league roster and in Triple-A. Garrett Cleavinger and Manuel Rodriguez can hit 96 mph on their fastball and are solid options for protecting a lead.

When the Rays traded Springs to Oakland out of their starting pitching surplus they landed Joe Boyle, who is not projected to make the Opening Day roster.

Boyle, 25, could factor into the bullpen mix given his electric 97-98 mph fastball, but does have troubling command issues. He could have a Uceta-like ascension to the late-inning mix if the Rays choose that route.

The Verdict

The American League East is full of talent and the Rays will have to grind to finish .500 or better. Many project the Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox to be playoff teams.

Playing in a minor league stadium and being forced into unusual travel habits makes the Rays a difficult team to predict.

Part of me wants to be pessimistic about this team. Their offense looks weak. Who knows who will contribute out of the bullpen. What if they have more injuries to their starting pitching?

But, the Rays offense is due for improvement and while the pitching may see slight regression, they have the depth and talent to make up for it. Under Neander’s vision, the Rays are usually a winning team, which is why I don’t suggest underestimating them.

I predict that the Rays finish at around 84 wins. While that may not be enough to make the playoffs, it will be more than 80.5 wins.