Top Notes From the White Sox ZiPS Projections for 2025

We have finally reached the time of the year when we try to predict everything that will occur during the course of the MLB season.

For the Chicago White Sox, the hope is to at least see noticeable improvement from the worst season in MLB history. That’s a low bar, but it’s the stage of the rebuild that Chicago is at right now.

Trading by far their most valuable player in Garrett Crochet certainly does not improve the outlook of this roster in the short term. However, the farm system is filled with ample talent, which bodes well for the future of the organization.

In terms of 2025, projections, such as Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, are certainly still low for this team. A small number of players can truly be penciled into a role on this roster, which creates a very tricky team to attempt to make projections for this season.

Due to the number of young players expected to debut at various times throughout the season, ZiPS DC projections are more useful in many cases than traditional ZiPS projections.

By using manual playing time estimates from FanGraphs’s RosterResource, ZiPS DC accounts for the likely number of games played by each player rather than what their numbers would look like if they were with the MLB club all season.

With such a young roster, and at least a double-digit number of players set to debut this year, I used ZiPS DC projections for counting stats (including WAR) when breaking down this roster.

Let’s break down the key takeaways from the ZiPS projections for the 2025 White Sox.

Position Player ZiPS Projections

With much of the roster expected to be occupied by young players and one-year fillers, this is an extremely hard group to predict. There is a realistic chance that only a couple of players actually play the majority of games in the field for Chicago.

According to ZiPS DC, no player aside from Luis Robert Jr. will accumulate over 2.0 WAR this season on this roster. Yeah, and he may not even make it to Opening Day without being traded. No other player is projected for more than 1.6 WAR across their projected playing time.

Still, one young position player gets a lot of love, while some filler veterans lead the way in terms of actual offensive impact.

• Luis Robert Jr. bounces back…sort of – Following a massively disappointing 2024 after a huge 2023, Robert could easily be on a different roster by Opening Day or the trade deadline.
  
  While he’ll provide value as an elite center fielder, projections are fairly low on his impact. ZiPS splits the difference between his past two seasons and projects a .740 OPS and 107 wRC+ for him this year. That wRC+ mark is tied for fifth on the roster.
  
  If he’s healthy, it’s hard to imagine a world where Robert is not among the best hitters on this roster. If the injuries mount though, this projection could end up being high. This range of outcomes for him may help clear up why his trade value is so complicated, for those wondering.

• Only one rookie is projected to be above average – It’s not who you might expect it to be. ZiPS projections are extremely low on top hitting prospect Colson Montgomery; he is projected to hit just .203 with an 80 wRC+ in what will be his rookie campaign.
  
  The best catching prospect tandem in baseball, Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel, is projected to be below-average offensively as they debut in 2025. ZiPS DC projects just a total of 84 games played by these two combined, which feels very low. I would not be surprised to see each of them get 70+ MLB games under their belt this season.
  
  Chase Meidroth, though, the third piece in the Garrett Crochet trade, is projected to be easily the best rookie hitter on this team thanks to a disciplined plate approach (.361 OBP) and minimal whiffing, leading to a projected 108 wRC+ in 2025.

• Minor signings made will actually help – While they may not feel like big additions for most teams, the veterans brought in on one-year deals should perform well in the context of this roster.
  
  Mike Tauchman leads the roster in projected wRC+ while being fourth-highest in projected OPS. Josh Rojas has the sixth-highest projected WAR on the roster.
  
  It’s a low bar to top after last season, but there will at least be some decent veterans sliding into the lineup.

• Power is not going to be a strength – ZiPS does not think this team will produce much pop, especially if Robert and his team-leading 27 projected home runs leave during the year.
  
  Only four players are set to hit more than 10 home runs this season. One of those is Miguel Vargas, who hit just a pair of home runs in his first 42 games with the White Sox last season.
  
  After a historically bad 2024, ZiPS does not see the offense being good just yet. It does feel like the projections for some of the prospects that will debut this year could be low, but it’s hard to bank on production from many rookies.
  

Pitching Staff ZiPS Projections

With an excellent pitching system, the White Sox figure to be competitive on the mound very soon, but ZiPS seems to believe they may be a year off still. No pitcher on this roster is seen as more than an average arm, but keep in mind, Garrett Crochet was projected to be a 0.3-WAR reliever this time last year.

Many names are fairly unheralded, but it would not be a surprise to see a handful of these young arms perform noticeably better than projected.

The best projected ERA on the entire roster, for a starter or reliever, is a 4.14 ERA for…Brandon Eisert. Yes, that is the player projected to lead this team in ERA in 2025. Come on.

There are so many roster spots to be claimed on this pitching staff in spring training, but there is more talent than what I think has been given credit here.

• Every starter is expected to be below average – According to the ZiPS DC projections, no starter on this roster will be worth more than 1.4 WAR this season, and the best ERA among them will belong to Martín Pérez with a 4.44 mark.
  
  Look, there’s no Garrett Crochet-level talent set to start the season in Chicago’s rotation. But there are guys who were already better than their projections last season and should be at least as good, likely better, with another year of development.
  
  Jonathan Cannon posted a 4.49 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP while definitely experiencing some growing pains as a rookie, but ZiPS has him at a 4.71 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Davis Martin has had a long journey back to the MLB mound but did have some success last season. Still, he’s projected to have worse numbers across the board in 2025.
  
  It was only a four-game sample, but Sean Burke flashed big league stuff as a rookie, but ZiPS sees him as a 0.9 WAR player in his first full MLB season. Essentially, projections see this rotation being pretty poor across the board.

• No prospects take a big step, but the big two debut – Much like the starters already at the MLB level, ZiPS does not project success for any of the top pitching prospects.
  
  Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, and Nick Nastrini are all projected to make at least eight starts this season, but none are seen as being productive pieces. Beyond that trio, three more prospects are projected to make starts in Chicago.
  
  Mason Adams will be 25 years old heading into the season and posted a 2.92 ERA with just 28 walks across 120.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. However, he’s projected to make just three starts for the White Sox. There’s a world where Adams claims a rotation spot quickly with a strong early start in Charlotte and makes 20 starts for the White Sox.
  
  The top two left-handed pitching prospects in baseball are widely expected to start the season in Double-A Birmingham together this spring. Despite Noah Schultz only throwing four innings per start last year and Hagen Smith throwing just 7.2 professional innings after being drafted last season, both are projected to debut.
  
  ZiPS has Schultz pitching to a 4.63 ERA with 24 strikeouts in his first six MLB starts and Smith making five starts with a 4.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts. I do think it’s sort of a toss-up whether they debut this season, but if they do, I will gladly hammer the over on these projections.
  
  The only circumstance for either to debut is if they have absolutely proven what they have to at the minor league level. In that case, I expect much more exciting numbers, at least in terms of their stuff playing up at the highest level.

• Key bullpen innings are there for the taking – ZiPS DC projects five relievers to throw at least 60 innings with several others filling in the rest. Among those expected to lead the way, Fraser Ellard got the most love, barely, with a 4.44 ERA and 22.6% strikeout rate following his quality rookie season in which he finished with a 3.75 ERA. I think Ellard is one of the more likely arms that could pop and establish himself as a high-leverage arm.
  
  After an up-and-down season in Triple-A, Prelander Berroa was the most impressive bullpen arm in Chicago throughout September. In his final 12 games of the season, Berroa allowed just three runs on 10 hits with 18 strikeouts across 15 innings. His command is volatile, but he has all the ingredients to be much better than a projected 24.1% strikeout rate and 4.57 ERA.
  
  Justin Anderson, Cam Booser, and Gus Varland are the other three arms that seem like a lock to start the season in the bullpen. While hard to project who it will be, giving validity to these projections, at least a couple of arms in this bullpen will be much better than projected.
  
  The bullpen as a whole was projected for -1.6 WAR in the initial ZiPS roster preview. Come on, it has to be better than that…right?

White Sox ZiPS: Final Takeaways

It’s another rebuilding year in Chicago, that’s certain. ZiPS projects this team to be pretty brutal once again this season following their terrible 2024.

Based on these projections, it feels like a 110+ loss team once again. I do think there’s a layer of regression to the mean and internal growth that will make this team better than projected though.

According to ZiPS, essentially no young players are projected to take a step forward, which I just don’t think will be the case. It’s hard to pick and choose which prospects will pop, but the White Sox have built a strong enough farm system where some players will perform well.

Particularly when it comes to pitching, this team should be able to outperform the ZiPS projections. They very well may not, and I’ll have to eat my words, but I’ll stick with that stance.

This year represents a season of growth in Chicago as the focus is seemingly finally on the prospects and future pieces. The entire second half, and much of the first half honestly, should be all about who can prove they’re a piece of the future.