Teoscar Hernández Set the Market for Top Corner Outfield Bats

Teoscar Hernández was one of the most coveted free agent bats heading into the 2024-25 offseason. On top of helping lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a World Series title, Hernández earned himself quite a bit of money with his incredible bounce-back 2024 campaign.

Shortly before the new year began, Hernández and the Dodgers struck a three-year, $66 million agreement to keep the slugger in Dodger blue.

Hernández finally received the multi-year deal he was searching for, and the Dodgers retained an integral hitter from their incredible World Series run.

What’s more, the Hernández contract also sets the market for the other top corner outfielders that still remain in free agency.

Two names in particular that could see their market shift are Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar. The consensus top two outfield bats still on the open market, both Santander and Profar could have their upcoming contracts influenced by the deal that Hernández signed with the Dodgers.

Let’s break it down by the numbers.

Anthony Santander

It seemed as if Santander and Hernández would have very similar markets heading into the offseason, as their metrics were quite comparable in 2024.

Hernández didn’t hit as many homers as Santander (33 for Hernández, 44 for Santander), but he made up for that in the batting average and on-base departments.

However, few players were more prolific power hitters than Santander in 2024. In fact, Santander had the fourth-best ISO in all of baseball at .271. That trailed only the two MVP winners – Aaron Judge (.379) and Shohei Ohtani (.336) – and the now-owner of the richest contract professional sports, Juan Soto (.281). What great company to be in if you’re Santander.

Heading into the offseason, one could have made an equal argument for Santander or Hernández as the top free agent outfielder not named Juan Soto. Now that Hernández has inked his deal, it’s fair to assume that Santander could land a similar contract when the time comes.

Hernández’s deal with the Dodgers yields an average annual value (AAV) of $22 million for the first three years of the deal (the contract also includes a club option for $15 million in 2028). Given the similarities in their markets, it’s likely Santander signs for an AAV very close to that when all is said and done.

However, the big separator between Hernández’s contract and Santander’s eventual deal could be the length of the agreements.

Santander, 30, is two years younger than Hernández, and that’s going to be a big advantage for him. While a deal with an AAV in the $20 million ballpark seems fair, he’s likely seeking a longer-term contract that pushes into the four or five-year range. Whether teams are willing to give him that extra year or two is clearly yet to be seen.

What’s more, Santander received the qualifying offer from the Orioles, and he obviously declined the contract. That means whichever team signs him will have to pay a penalty in the form of draft selections and/or international bonus pool money, which is dependent on the financial situation of the signing team.

Santander has posted a wRC+ north of 118 in four of his last five seasons, and he deserves a nice pay bump after his incredible walk year with the Baltimore Orioles. At the same time, there are red flags in his profile that make him a potential free agent trap, making teams likely to think twice before inking him to a long-term contract.

There are plenty of factors impacting Santander’s market. But when all is said and done, a deal similar to that of Hernández, potentially with an added year or two, could be what shakes out for the switch-hitting slugger.

Jurickson Profar

Profar is one of the most fascinating players on the open market. He smashed his offensive career marks across the board in 2024, and he put together just as good of a campaign as both of the names mentioned above him.

Profar didn’t slug or hit for as much power as Santander or Hernández, but he made up for it in other ways.

He had the highest walk rate of the trio (11.4% for Profar, 8.1% for Hernández, 8.7% for Santander), and he had the lowest strikeout rate of the bunch as well (15.1% for Profar, 28.8% for Hernández, 19.4% for Santander).

Combine his top-flight approach with his 90th-percentile whiff rate (17%), and he was far more impressive in the contact and on-base department than either Santander or Hernández while still being one of the top run producers for a good San Diego Padres offense.

Profar ended the year with an fWAR of 4.3, which was a full win higher than Santander and 0.8 higher than Hernández.

With that being said, it’s clear that organizations around MLB are wary of his lack of track record.

Profar had his breakout season at age 31, and it took him 11 seasons to finally reach this level of production. From his rookie year in 2012 through the 2023 season (961 games), Profar had a slash line of .238/.322/.383 for a 92 OPS+ and an fWAR of 4.8.

In other words, Profar accumulated nearly as much fWAR in 2024 (4.3) as he did in the 10 seasons prior (4.8). He’ll also be 32 on Opening Day, and for those reasons, teams are clearly hesitant to hand him the multi-year contract that he is looking for.

Profar might need to settle for a one-year deal to show that he is capable of replicating at least something close to his production from 2024. If that’s how it shakes out, perhaps he will receive something similar to Hernández’s one-year deal with the Dodgers from an offseason ago.

Back in 2023, Hernández didn’t have the walk year he was hoping for with the Seattle Mariners. He slashed .258/.305/.435 for a .741 OPS and a wRC+ around league average as he entered free agency. Hernández ended up signing a one-year deal worth $23.5 million with the Dodgers to regain his value.

While it’s not exactly the same situation for Profar, perhaps he can seek a similar deal this winter. If he doesn’t receive the contract length he’s looking for, which is looking like it might be the case, then receiving a one-year deal at a higher AAV could be in the cards.

One thing working to Profar’s advantage is that the Padres did not extend him the QO. That means whichever team signs him will not have to pay the aforementioned penalty for signing a player who declined a QO like they would for Santander.

The Padres have long seemed like the most obvious candidates to bring back Profar since he found so much success with them in 2024 and was one of their most valuable hitters all season long.

However, as just mentioned, they declined to offer him the one-year qualifying offer worth $21.05 million. If he does reunite with San Diego, it’ll be on a deal cheaper than that.

Another good reference point could be Tyler O’Neill’s three-year contract worth $49.5 million ($16.5 million AAV). A one-year deal with a salary between O’Neill’s AAV and Hernández’s AAV would make sense for a player like Profar.

While a multi-year deal doesn’t seem to be in the cards this offseason for Profar, he still deserves to get paid for what he did in 2024. It just might not be as rich of a deal as some anticipated heading into the offseason.