Is Tigers’ Colt Keith Primed for a Second-Half Boom?

This past offseason, Colt Keith signed a six-year, $28.6 million deal to lock him into the nucleus of the Detroit Tigers rebuild. And although that contract, at the time, was seen as a strong move to lock up a top prospect, the start of the year proved tough for the young second baseman.

Yet, the turnaround could be coming for Keith, as the 22-year-old showed signs of figuring out the big leagues in the last month before the All-Star break.

Colt Keith’s 2024 Season: The Bad

Keith came into the year with a lot on his shoulders.

On top of the contract, Keith was the Tigers’ No. 2 prospect in a loaded system, and he was expected to be a spark plug for an offense that wasn’t especially productive the year before.

Slotting Keith into the lineup seemed like a slam dunk for the Tigers front office and Tigers fans. His minor league numbers jumped off the page in 2023 when he slashed a ridiculous .306/.380/.552 with 27 homers and 101 RBIs.

Unfortunately, his debut month in the big leagues was anything but ridiculous. At the end of April, after 26 games in the majors, Keith was hitting a paltry .154 with a .380 OPS.

Keith was clearly struggling with MLB pitching, and Scott Harris and the Tigers front office were starting to look foolish for giving this kid from Ohio a large contract three months before his first major league at-bat.

Keith picked it up in the month of May, hitting his first MLB home run in his 43rd game. (Yes, it took him 42 homerless games and an at-bat against Alek Manoah to hit his first big fly.)

The lefty batter hit his second home run at the end of the month against Boston in a 7-3 loss. By the end of May, he had almost quadrupled his RBI output for the season, going from five to 19 RBI.

Moreover, Keith finally started to show some of the things we saw down in Erie and Toledo the year before. It was his best month to date. Granted, he only had one other MLB month to compare it to, but still… Improvement!

June saw Keith fall back into bad habits. A .220 average with another two dingers did not give many fans the idea that this would be our second baseman of the future. He went back down to his April total of five RBIs and walked only one time.

The outlook for Keith’s first half was looking bleaker than ever after a promising May.

Colt Keith’s 2024 Season: The Good

Keith’s best month this season has been July. The sample size is smaller, but heading into the break, he was raking.

Through 13 games, Keith has hit .370 with an OPS of 1.276. He’s also more than doubled his home run total on the year with five in just these 13 games alone, compared to four over the previous three months.

And he capped off his first half with a boom.

In their penultimate game before the break, the Tigers fought the powerhouse Dodgers in a series at Comerica Park. Keith found himself up to bat representing the tying run, with two outs, Detroit down by two, and Dodgers closer Evan Phillips on the mound.

Keith pulled an inside pitch into the left field stands to tie the game at nine, and the Tigers would later win that game on a Gio Urshela walk-off two-run homer.

The young left-handed hitter has seen some struggles, but for him to be a hero in that spot is going to stick with Tigers fans this season.

Keith’s underlying numbers have looked promising as well. He ranks in the top half of the league in whiff rate and K-rate, which means he’s not striking out a crazy amount and not missing pitches.

He also ranks in the 73rd percentile in squared-up percentage and ranks in the 68th percentile in expected batting average (.264). So, there is a chance that Keith has faced some bad luck when it comes to his hitting. If he can get some more of those lineouts to fall for base hits, the Tigers might be in for a treat as they fight to stay alive in the Wild Card race.

What Keith’s Breakout Could Do for Detroit

The Tigers need Keith to break out. No ifs, and, or buts. Their last breakout candidate fell short of expectations (cough, cough, Spencer Torkelson), and they need some sort of playmaker to come in and make this offense at least a little fearsome.

The Tigers can’t squander another chance at having a young player become the focal point of their offense. And to give some help to Riley Greene, who has carried this offense to the halfway mark, would bring Detroit another step closer to having a truly imposing offense.

They’ve shown flashes of being a good offensive team. Look at the Cleveland series before the break. The Tigers scored 8, 5 and 10 in the last three games, and the first game they won 1-0.

So, there is offense to be found on this team. What’s more, A.J. Hinch has a reputation for strong second halves throughout his time with the Tigers. If Colt can be a catalyst for this offense, it could mean the difference between the team selling at the deadline or buying and making a push in September.

Plus, if Colt Keith continues his strong performance in July into August and September, he could lock down the second base position for the future. The Tigers have him for at least six years, and that could extend to nine years with their three club options.

The hope for Keith is that he ends the season like he ended the first half, securing his position in the middle of the Tigers order, and making himself a organizational cornerstone in the process. Then, it’s up to him to continue to produce for years to come. A Bryce Rainer and Colt Keith middle infield could be in the Tigers’ future, and for me, that’s very exciting.