Should the Detroit Tigers Trade Casey Mize?

After a disastrous May, the Detroit Tigers rebounded in the start of June and finally started to look like the team many projected them to be. Health improved, hits started to fall in, hell, even Colt Keith had a moment of flashing power. Climbing back into the race would take a remarkable run but we have seen the Tigers do it before.

Then the Tigers started to stall going 5-5 over their last 10. Not exactly bad, but considering the hole they had dug themselves in, it has not been enough to delay the reality that 2026 is not going to be their year. Writing a team off that’s only six and a half games back from a wild-card spot on June 29 feels irresponsible, but the Tigers need to be serious about their situation.

Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal will be the name everyone in the baseball world wants to talk about but his teammate, Casey Mize, should garner plenty of interest. The former first overall pick is having a career year pitching to the tune of a 2.95 ERA and 2.77 FIP with a contract expiring at the end of the season.

We know Skubal is all but gone at season’s end. He’s earned a massive contract and all indications are that will be someone besides the motor city. Mize on the other hand falls into a contract projection that is more comfortable, or, could be a qualifying offer candidate himself.

The Case for Keeping Mize

Trying to describe the type of career Casey Mize has had is difficult. For a number one overall pick you could say he’s been disappointing. Injuries have limited him to making more than 25 starts only twice and the production has seesawed from fine to showing flashes over the past two seasons.

With Skubal and Jack Flaherty both hitting free agency the Tigers will be left with a number of unknowns surrounding the rotation headed into the offseason. The emergence of Troy Melton and Keider Montero easy the nerves to an extent. Reese Olson has been great when healthy but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. We truly don’t know what type of pitcher Jackson Jobe can or will be at the major league level.

Although I like prospects like Jake Miller and Andrew Sears they come with somewhat limited ceilings and cannot be viewed as the type of prospect who can fill a large role in 2027. Essentially, the Tigers have enough arms to complete a rotation but not enough proven talent to be comfortable or considered as contenders.

Not trading Mize would have to come with an understanding that re-signing him is a strong likelihood. He’ll hit free agency at 29 years old and should get a relatively good pay day with a possibility for a shorter term deal.

Luis Serverino was a bit older but also had prior injury concerns, strong flashes, and a solid pre-free agency season and landed a three-year, $67 million deal with the A’s. Sean Manaea was two years older but coming off a strong season and landed three for $75 million. How about the Tigers’ own Jack Flaherty, another players who dealt with injuries, showed flashes, had a career year, but settled for a two year deal worth $35 million.

It is possible a longer term deal is out there for Mize but I personally think a two- or three-year deal at $15-$18 million Average Annual Value is a reasonable placeholder for this though exercise. A comfortable number the Tigers could absolutely meet with money set to come off their books. If they aren’t sure about the term they could extend a qualifying offer, projected to be in the $23 million range, and overpay in exchange for forcing a one-year deal. Similar to what we saw with Gleyber Torres.

Bringing back Mize on the QO or short-term deal would allow for the Tiger to keep another veteran in their rotation as they truly see what they have in their younger arms in 2027. The star align and all of Melton, Montero, Olson, Jobe and so on show they are worthy of a spot moving forward then Mize becomes trade bait or walks after his short deal. Essentially, a bridge contract getting the Tigers rotation to a spot where they are more comfortable with their young players becoming established.

Right or wrong, teams tend to try and make their high draft picks work out to save some face. Spencer Torkelson and Mize have not lived up to what you would think they should be and moving on, admitting the flaws, can be difficult for certain organizations egos. The current front office did not draft Mize making parting from him a bit easier.

The Case for Trading Mize

When the Tigers selected Mize first overall he was one of the primary focuses of pulling Detroit out of a rebuild and into a better place. While the Tigers have since made the playoffs twice, proving the rebuild was not completely a failure, Mize has not exactly been one of the primary reasons as to why.

His Tigers tenure has been complicated. Like I mentioned before, injuries have been the leading factor while strange arbitration cases have also existed, which is not to fault Mize. Production has been wonky but overall I’d say he’s been….fine. Not what you want from his draft selection but far from a complete bust.

2025 was his strongest season yet. A 3.87 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and career best 8.40 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9 across 28 starts. In 11 starts this year his 2.95 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 9.00 K/9, and 2.17 BB/9 are all tracking for him to set new career best marks. If the pace holds, or even slightly decreases, he’s either going to be a prime trade candidate or due for a legitimate pay day. Even though the Tigers can afford to pay him, will they?

This season’s trade deadline is starting to look a bit strange. With so many teams still theoretically in the race it is hard to predict who will be selling or what will be available. The clear sellers do not have a lot of starting pitching to sell making Mize’s (and Skubal’s, for that matter,) value that much higher.

The sellers as of today look like the Rockies, Reds, Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Royals. Of those teams which starting pitchers will be moved? The Rockies have nothing, the Reds have a struggling Brady Singer, the Giants have Robbie Ray, Mets Freddy Peralta, Red Sox Sonny Gray, Royals Seth Lugo? We know the Angels have already said they aren’t moving their quality starters, for whatever reason.

How many of those arms are better than than Mize? Gray comes with a lot more money on his deal and a $30 million mutual option with a $5 million buyout for 2027. Peralta is a more talented pitcher and should get a better return than Mize but his 4.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and significant drop in strikeout rate might cause some teams to side with a cheaper to acquire Mize.

All of this to say there will be suitors who like the idea of Mize the pitcher and the cost to acquire not being the absolute top of the market. Many think the Tigers would want a young MLB player back or someone close to debuting.

The Cubs just lost Edward Cabrera and their rotation has taken a massive hit. Acquiring David Peterson helps but they still need more. Chicago has the pitching and hitting prospects that fit the Tigers desired return to pull off a trade for Mize. The A’s, D-backs, Blue Jays, and others should be interested. Finding a landing spot should not be an issue.

We all know that Scott Harris is going to operate off calculations more than gut feeling. The Tigers have a good group of young players and a number of top prospects, but could still use more especially when it comes to pitching. A deal will be there that allows for Mize to be moved with the return helping the 2027 Tigers, and I think it will be hard for Harris to convince himself not to sell high on Mize.

Final Thoughts

To answer the main question, yes, I do think the Tigers should trade Casey Mize. I have gone back and forth on my feelings and would honestly be fine either way but capitalizing on what I believe will be his highest value is the right move to make.

Look, there’s plenty of blame to go around for why the Tigers are in the position they are in. But the reality is they are here and because of that they need to operate like a team that is selling. I’m a Mize fan and think he’s a good pitcher but that will not cloud my vision for understanding what I believe to be the right move.

I’m not so sure Mize would sign an extension with Detroit. Who knows. What I do know is the Tigers need more help and if Mize is the avenue to acquiring that help so be it.