Is J.P. Crawford Back to His 2023 Form?

When the Seattle Mariners acquired J.P. Crawford from the Phillies in 2018, they knew they were getting a plus defender with a solid bat. Just how good he would become offensively was always the question.

After a few seasons of solid, but unspectacular, offensive production, Crawford broke out in a big way in 2023 with a .266/.380/.438 slash line in addition to a career-high 19 home runs and 136 wRC+. That led to a career-best 4.9 fWAR season.

After a return closer to the norm in 2024, Crawford is back to swinging a hot bat and changing the dynamic of this Mariners offense.

After several seasons, teams usually know what to expect from a player. Rarely do guys have a sudden change in year six that is sustainable. Most had the same thought after 2023, and his 2024 numbers only solidified those thoughts. What we are seeing this year has propelled Crawford’s name into the conversation of being a top shortstop in the game.

Stats were taken prior to play on June 26.

2025 Success

Crawford has been a staple of the Mariners’ lineup since joining the team. He’s been a fixture at short, and even during his more pedestrian offensive seasons he was valuable due to his defense. However, his range and arm have declined over the years, suffocating his defensive value.

No problem, though, Crawford has found a way to make up for it with the bat.

Crawford’s profile is pretty straightforward, drawing plenty of walks and making above-average contact. With less than ideal exit velocities, power has never been a big part of Crawford’s game. However, as he gains experience, he’s learned when to hunt pitches and pull them out of the park.

What makes Crawford such a difficult batter to face is his ability to make the opposing arm throw strikes. His 20.7% chase rate is in the 89th percentile in baseball, and his 20% whiff rate ranks in the 77th percentile.

He doesn’t swing at pitches that he would not do much damage on, and the pitcher is often having to go to his fastball to work back into counts.

He neutralizes righties with his ability to hit changeups well, a pitch right-handed pitchers often utilize to get left-handed batters out. Again, this helps Crawford get into fastball counts and see velocity, which he handles well.

Against fastballs, Crawford is hitting .274 with a 19.0% whiff rate and three home runs.

While the power numbers will never stand out, he’s able to sneak his home runs out by hunting fastballs and pulling them out. In fact, only one of his 61 career home runs have not been to the pull side – a 2024 home run to left center.

Obviously, Crawford’s value comes from putting the ball in play. Because of this, up and down seasons can be somewhat expected due to BABIP fluctuations. In 2023, his BABIP was .314, and he currently is running a .335 BABIP this season. Last year? That number was only .248.

What I have learned to appreciate about Crawford is his understanding, and buy-in, to the player he is. He doesn’t try to be something different. He doesn’t try to do too much. Instead, he focuses on perfecting his role.

The profile of a singles hitter who walks a lot but doesn’t steal many bases is a bit wonky. Weird in this day and age of baseball, but it’s working.

Could We See a Repeat of 2023?

Comparing Crawford’s best season with his current season shows a lot of similarities. At the time of writing this article, Crawford’s 134 wRC+ is nearly identical to his 2023 number.

The numbers you see are Crawford’s stats from Opening Day through June 26 in both 2023 and 2025. He’s actually on a much better pace than he was in 2023, a year in which his .892 second half OPS carried him.

In 2023, Crawford finished with 4.9 fWAR, which ranked him as the fifth-best shortstop, according to WAR. His defense had not taken nearly the hit that it has recently, which is why he’s only at 2.1 fWAR, which ranks him ninth this year. He’s credited with the largest defensive knock on WAR amongst the top 10 shortstops.

In order for Crawford to give the same value as he did in 2023, his offense will have to do the heavy lifting. We saw his power tick up as the weather heated up two seasons ago, and the same could be true this season. But, what if he reverts back to 2024?

Instead of diving into more advanced metrics and coming off as even more of a nerd than I already do, I’ll make this simple: Crawford’s 2024 was a mix of bad luck and a huge drop-off in hitting off-speed pitches. It goes to show how quickly a player with his profile can have up and down stretches.

So, yes, Crawford could go through an unlucky stretch that changes his value. Although he will always have an eye for the zone to fall back on, which gives him a sustainable floor.

Final Thoughts

It is not a coincidence that the Mariners are better when Crawford is playing well. Since being moved to the leadoff spot Crawford, is slashing .280/.384/.387. In games in which the Mariners win, he has a .890 OPS compared to .634 in losses.

Although Crawford is not the superstar who sells a bunch of jerseys, he is the table setter for this lineup. An ability to get on base with Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh behind him gives the Mariners a legitimate scoring threat with tough out after tough out.

Weather or not Crawford keeps up his pace and matches 2023 is not the most important part of all of this. What is? That his play continues to be much better than 2024.