A Strong Deadline Could Help the Mariners Leapfrog the Astros

Ahead of the 2025 season, it was clear that the American League West would have a significantly different outlook.

The Houston Astros made every American League Championship Series since 2017, winning the division every year in this cycle except in 2020. However, this streak was broken by the Detroit Tigers last season, leading to some huge offseason moves.

The Astros went on to lose Alex Bregman to the Red Sox in free agency, making this the first season since 2017 without him. The Astros also dealt an MVP-caliber player in Kyle Tucker, sending him to the Chicago Cubs in an offseason trade.

For the first time in years, the AL West seemed wide open, with the Astros at their weakest point in years.

Despite all of these moves, the Astros have settled in nicely, making up for their losses. They currently sit in first place with a 56-40 record, five games above the Seattle Mariners for the division lead. Although the Astros have been in the driver’s seat, the Mariners are closer than they may seem.

The Mariners currently rank fourth in MLB in wRC+, with the offense being their main strong suit to this point. At the same time, their rotation is strong too; they currently rank 16th in team ERA, making it seem like the Mariners are a few additions away from challenging the Astros.

With the deadline approaching quickly, these problems could all be resolved very quickly. Let’s take a closer look and see if a strong deadline could lead the Mariners to the promised land.

What Do the Mariners Need?

As I briefly mentioned, the Mariners have had a strong offense to this point. Not only do they rank fourth in team wRC+, but they also rank inside the top 10 in many other key categories. The Mariners currently have eight players with at least 50 plate appearances who have posted a wRC+ above 110, showing the depth of the offense.

When diving deeper, it becomes clear that the offense is far from the problem with this team. Instead, which may be a surprise to some, it’s clear that the pitching staff has been the Mariners’ main weakness.

Time to Address the Pitching Staff?

Among starters with at least 40 innings pitched, the Mariners have just three arms with an ERA under 3.50: Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo. Even though all three of these arms have done very well, we run into some problems near the back of this list.

The Mariners have been missing George Kirby for a good portion of the season due to a multitude of injuries. Kirby, a former All-Star and nearly a Cy Young Award winner, has only pitched 54 innings this year due to shoulder inflammation and being struck by a comebacker. When he’s been healthy, he’s posted an ERA in the mid-4.00s, being pretty inconsistent overall.

Bryce Miller has also barely pitched due to arm inflammation, which has been a huge loss given his stellar 2024 campaign. In just 48.2 innings this season, his ERA has come in at 5.73, encapsulating his struggles pretty well overall.

These pitching problems only continue when looking at their bullpen. While the Mariners have produced two of the best relievers in baseball this season in Matt Brash and Andrés Muñoz, the rest of the bullpen has struggled to find consistency.

Among relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, the Mariners have seen four of their arms record ERAs under 3.00. This feels good on the surface, but the remaining four arms not in this group have posted ERAs above 3.40, with two of these players registering marks above 5.20.

Most notably, the four relievers with ERAs above 3.00 have combined for 139.2 of the bullpen’s 282.1 innings. This breaks down to nearly half of the bullpen’s innings, which means the club is regularly being placed in some tough situations due to the weakness of the bullpen.

Knowing this, it’s going to be important for the Mariners to prioritize getting some bullpen help this trade deadline, while also potentially grabbing another starter who could eat innings at the back of the rotation.

Who Are Some of the Players the Mariners Could Target?

Now that we’ve established what the Mariners need to target, we can take a closer look at who some of these players could be. There are plenty of names that could be perfect fits if the Mariners are willing to pay the price.

Reliever Targets

For starters, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have two higher-end relievers on the trade market in Dennis Santana and David Bednar. Both of these arms have done a very good job at holding down late innings for the Pirates, making them perfect candidates for the Mariners at this year’s deadline.

Although he struggled early on this season, Bednar has been lights-out since returning from Triple-A. Since rejoining the major-league team, Bednar has pitched to a 1.74 ERA across 31 innings, striking out 44 batters in the process. Bednar has also walked just seven batters in the same time span, posting a left-on-base percentage of over 80%.

The two-time All-Star is currently set to hit arbitration for the last time following this season. He’s currently making $5.9 million, a fair price to pay for a reliever of his dominance. He should fit right into this bullpen as a top-three relief option.

Even though Santana hasn’t pitched nearly to the same strikeout pedigree as Bednar, the right-hander has been one of the best relievers in the sport this season. Across 40.1 innings, Santana has recorded a 1.56 ERA, striking out just 29 batters. He’s also posted a similar left-on-base percentage to Bednar, with his number approaching 80%.

Santana may not be as dominant or have as much proven success as Bednar, but he makes up for this when it comes to his salary. Santana is currently making just $1.4 million this season, and he’s set to enter his final year of arbitration after this season. He should also be cheaper in a trade package while pitching plenty of reliable innings for the Mariners.

Starting Pitcher Targets

Now that we’ve established two very good relief candidates, we also need to take a look at some starting pitching options for the team. The Mariners should be looking for an innings-eater at the back of their rotation, and luckily for them, there are plenty of these arms on the market.

The first main arm that sticks out to me as fitting this mold is another Pirates pitcher, Andrew Heaney. Heaney, a left-handed starter, has fit the exact innings-eating mold the Mariners should be looking for at this year’s deadline.

Heaney has made 18 starts at the back of the Pirates’ rotation, pitching to a 4.59 ERA in nearly 100 innings. He’s recorded 73 strikeouts while also having his ERA+ sit in the low 90s, making him the perfect choice for this situation.

Heaney is set to make $5.25 million on a one-year deal this season, meaning he won’t cost much financially once acquired. Also, he should remain relatively cheap in trade due to his one-year deal and reputation as a back-end of the rotation piece.

If the Mariners wanted to look for a little higher-end piece, they could look towards Adrian Houser of the Chicago White Sox. Despite making just nine starts to this point, he’s been a bright spot for an otherwise disappointing White Sox team.

After signing for just $1.375 million last offseason, Houser has dominated. He’s pitched to an ERA of 1.56 in his nine starts, striking out 39 batters across 57.2 innings. Houser has also registered a WHIP of around 1.10, being worth 1.6 fWAR in the process.

He may cost slightly more than some of the other options here in a trade, but he’d be a perfect fit with how he’s pitched this season. If the Mariners could dish out a decent prospect package, he could eat meaningful innings for very little money.

There’s always the chance the Mariners look towards some of the higher-end, controllable arms on the market, such as Edward Cabrera. However, Heaney and Houser should both fit right in for a far less trade package.

The Mariners have plenty of prospects in their farm system to pull off any of these trades as well. The Pirates will primarily be seeking bats, and the Mariners have plenty of decent hitters worth moving, such as Tai Peete, or others.

The White Sox will be looking for essentially whatever they can get in return for Houser, and if they can be the top bidder, this deal should be doable without much hassle.

Will These Additions Be Enough?

Based on the Mariners’ pitching struggles, one innings eater in the back of the rotation and one solid bullpen arm should be enough to catapult this team to the top of the division. If they could grab one starter and two bullpen arms, they could become even more dangerous very quickly.

Even though the Astros have been a better team on all cylinders, these additions will close the gap at the very least. The Mariners will have to trust their offense to continue slugging while also finding key innings from their bullpen arms to have any shot at surpassing them, and I think this is a doable task.

With just five games separating the two teams, it’s possible any addition is significant enough to cause a serious shakeup in the division. Look out, if the Mariners improve their bullpen and find a decent starter, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with.