The Padres Are Taking Roster Risks That Just Aren’t Working
The Padres' offseason roster additions simply haven't delivered enough value in 2026.
The 2026 San Diego Padres are the most confusing team in baseball.
They are a bottom-five offense in most major categories, have one of the thinnest rotations, have a -8 run differential, and are 17-21 against teams above .500. Yet somehow, at 41-37, they are tied with the Cubs for the final wild-card spot.
Still, the holes in the roster have been impossible to ignore. Especially during their six-game losing streak from May 30 to June 5, many of the concerns that have followed this team all came to light.
The team entered this season betting on several roster risks that would break in their favor. Through the first 78 games of the season, too many of those bets have failed, and the flaws in the roster are becoming harder to overcome.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 24.
The Rotation
During the free-agency cycle, the Padres landed one big fish free agent in Michael King. Outside of that, A.J. Preller was left to go dig in the bargain bin to fill out the rest of the rotation. So far, almost none of the low-risk signings have hit.
Starting with Griffin Canning, who has struggled mightily this season. In 10 appearances, he owns a 7.38 ERA. In his most recent outing, he allowed four runs while recording just two outs. Outside of his 82nd-percentile ground-ball rate, there is little on his Baseball Savant page that suggests positive regression is coming.
Moving over to Lucas Giolito, another signing that has failed to provide stability.
Giolito was coming off a solid bounce-back season with the Red Sox, but concerns remained about his underlying metrics, particularly his 5.06 expected ERA (xERA). Those concerns have proven valid.
In seven games, Giolito has posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.85 WHIP while averaging 90.8 mph on his fastball. He has offered little upside to the rotation and is now on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation.
German Márquez is another reclamation project that hasn’t panned out. While having a 5.76 ERA, his curveball is the only pitch with a positive run value. His Baseball Savant page is a sea of deep blue, and he is currently on the injured list with right forearm irritation.
Besides King, the only rotation piece that has worked out is in Walker Buehler. The days of him being a top pitcher in baseball are well behind him, but he owns a 2.76 ERA with 36 strikeouts in his last eight starts.
The Lineup
The Padres also attempted to address their lack of right-handed power, but that gamble failed almost immediately.
When Nick Castellanos was signed for the league minimum, it felt like he could be the answer. Instead, Castellanos hit .189 in 39 games before being designated for assignment.
You can’t hold manager Craig Stammen accountable for the state of the rotation, but you can for his lineup construction.
Just as the front office has continued betting on struggling veterans in the rotation, Stammen has continued betting on struggling stars at the top of the lineup.
Stammen has stuck with his guns all season, leaving Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado at the top of the order despite both producing well below expectations.
Merrill has yet to get back to his rookie-year production, batting .215 with a .615 OPS. There are encouraging signs, such as his 10.3% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate, but his approach and 24.3% strikeout rate have neutralized his quality of contact.
As for Machado, he is in the middle of the worst season of his career.
Neither player has earned the benefit of remaining locked into the heart of the order every day. Yet Stammen has shown little willingness to adjust.
It’s understandable why. Merrill is one of the organization’s cornerstones, and Machado’s track record speaks for itself. But when you rank 29th in runs per game at 3.9, continuing to run out the same lineup every night begins to look like stubbornness.
This isn’t to say Merrill and Machado belong at the bottom of the lineup. But there is value in shuffling the order until both players find their groove. Instead, the Padres have continued hoping that things will eventually correct themselves, and so far, that gamble hasn’t paid off.
Final Thoughts
It’s almost impossible to evaluate the Padres.
By no means should they have the record they have, but that’s how baseball works sometimes.
Despite the glaring flaws throughout the roster, they remain firmly in the playoff race. That speaks to the talent that still exists on this roster.
But the concerns that existed in March aren’t going away any time soon.
The lineup is beginning to show signs of life, but the larger issue remains the rotation. The majority of the swings the team took on these bounce-back veterans have failed.
Unfortunately, this was all Preller had to work with, and sometimes these low-risk signings end up working out for teams, but that clearly hasn’t been the case for San Diego.
There is still plenty of baseball left to be played, leaving a chance that one of these gambles will pay off in the end. But for now, the team is left scrambling for quality play on both sides of the ball.
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Written by
Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst who has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and is now finishing up his schooling…