How Creative Will the Padres Get to Complete Their Roster?

While it was a quiet start to the offseason for the San Diego Padres, they’ve been a little bit more active in recent weeks.

Their most notable addition came on Wednesday evening when they inked 32-year-old Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million deal.

It was a nice pickup for the ball club as they scooped up the top arm remaining in free agency, but it’s really the structure of the contract that should warrant the attention.

The agreement comes out to an average annual value (AAV) near $14 million, but Pivetta will receive a salary of $1 million in 2025 to go with a signing bonus of $3 million.

He will then make $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. He does have the ability to opt-out of the final two-years, $32 million remaining on his deal following the 2026 season.

Additionally, his $18 million salary in 2028 comes in the form of a player option, giving Pivetta plenty of player flexibility when he enters his mid-thirties.

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a player sign this style of contract with San Diego. In fact, it’s not even the first occurrence of it this offseason, as just a few weeks back the Padres used this same structure when negotiating a deal with Michael King.

The two parties were set to go to arbitration after King filed at $8.8 million and the Padres came in with an offer at $7.325 million. However, they reached a one-year agreement with King to go along with a mutual option for 2026.

King is guaranteed $7.75 MM in the form of a $3MM signing bonus, a salary of $1MM in 2025, and a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option for 2026.

King gets his guaranteed money for an amount in-between where the parties filed, and the Padres retain their ascending arm on an extremely reasonable price tag for 2025.

Clearly, the Padres have a goal in mind when negotiating these contracts. They’re attempting to round out a roster that was one of the best in the National League last season while also juggling significant financial constraints. And they’re doing a pretty good job at it with their recent moves.

San Diego has the roster makeup to get back in the postseason, and adding Pivetta into the mix just gives them more options to work with between now and Opening Day.

The Current State of the Padres’ Roster

The Padres now have a very formidable top-four in the starting rotation that consists of Cease, King, Darvish, and Pivetta. That’s a unit that certainly can hold their own in the National League.

Beyond that, Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez, and the newly-acquired Kyle Hart are capable of holding down the No. 5 spot. After signing Pivetta, the Padres ought to feel a whole lot better about only needing one of those arms to fill the final spot in the rotation as opposed to relying upon two of those names.

Offensively, they’ve made some very low-level signings in the past few weeks, but they’re ones that make sense and could yield value this coming year.

The ball club brought in catcher Elias Díaz on a backloaded one-year, $1.5 million agreement that includes a $2 million buyout on a $7 million club option for 2026 (it’s on a smaller scale, but it’s yet another example of the contract structure that we saw with Pivetta and King).

Likewise, left field was a major hole in the lineup following the departure of Jurickson Profar.

But the Padres addressed the position quite nicely, bringing in Connor Joe and Jason Heyward to form a pretty strong platoon tandem in left field. Both players were signed to one-year, $1 million guaranteed contracts.

When assessing their projected lineup, the only true glaring hole is the designated hitter spot, which is currently occupied by Tirso Ornelas.

The Padres have the assets to improve the position if they so desire, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how the team will proceed between now and Opening Day.

Selling off their most expensive expiring contracts as a way to cut payroll is still on the table, and that leaves the door open for several different routes the organization could take in the coming few weeks.

Route #1: Keep Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Trade Robert Suarez

It’s been well documented all winter that the Padres have entertained the idea of shopping their expiring assets.

Both Cease and Arraez are set to hit free agency following 2025. Cease is owed $13.75MM this coming season, and Arraez will make $14MM.

But the Padres are structuring contracts in such a way where the large portion of the salaries for guys like Pivetta or King won’t kick in until both Cease and Arraez are off the books following the 2025 season.

That’s significant, and the possibility of retaining both Cease and Arraez had to impact how the Padres wanted to structure the contracts of King and Pivetta. There’s a strong chance it means they’re inclined to keep their expiring assets for the upcoming season.

Alternatively, while reliever Robert Suarez isn’t on an expiring deal, he could be the most likely name on the move in the coming weeks. Although, it’s a bit more complicated with him.

He’s due $26 million across his next three seasons ($10MM in 2025, and $8MM in 2026-’27), but he has the ability to opt-out following 2025. That makes his trade value a bit murky knowing that an organization may only be acquiring him for one season.

But trading Suarez is probably the easiest way to clear some cash while also allowing them to bolster other parts of their roster. Getting his $10 million off the books could open the door for another free agent acquisition and could serve as a way for them to address their hole in the lineup.

J.D. Martinez would make a lot of sense in this lineup. He’d slot in immediately as the primary DH, and he should be in San Diego’s price range. Alternatively, assuming they retain Arraez, they could target an infielder to fill in at first or second base and move Arraez to the DH role.

If the Padres elect to go this direction, it would certainly hurt to lose an arm like Suarez, but they would still have a capable bullpen and this would be a way for them to fill other holes on their roster.

Route #2: Trade Cease and Keep Arraez, Suarez

When the Pivetta signing was announced, the initial reaction was that it makes Cease more expendable. That could still be the case.

As a counterpoint to the argument to keep Cease, perhaps the Padres signed Pivetta to this type of deal so that he can be Cease’s replacement in the rotation while also keeping payroll down in 2025.

Cease would obviously bring in the biggest return of these names, and perhaps they could look for something similar to what the Brewers got for an expiring Corbin Burnes last offseason.

Burnes was owed $15.637 million with one year remaining before hitting free agency. Milwaukee traded him to Baltimore in exchange for two controllable, big-league ready talents in infielder Joey Ortiz and southpaw DL Hall.

A package like this would make a lot of sense for San Diego. While subtracting Cease would hurt their chances to compete, it’d be a good move for the long-term.

San Diego’s asking price for Cease may still be a bit too rich, but with Pivetta now in the mix, perhaps they’d be more willing to move him in exchange for some younger talent- especially with Cease expected to walk at the end of 2025.

Route #3: Keep Cease, Suarez and Trade Arraez

The third option may be the least likely of them all, but it could still be an appealing option if the Padres are looking to clear money. An Arraez trade would accomplish that goal, but he likely has very little value on the trade market at this point.

There’s no denying how talented of a hitter he is, but he’s on an expiring deal, his price tag for 2025 isn’t cheap, and he’s an extremely limited defender. There’s a good chance that his return wouldn’t be enough to make up for his vacancy in the lineup.

Now, if they would rather clear Arraez’s money and spend it on a more impactful bat to fill the designated hitter role, then this route could make some sense.

But if they’re simply trading him to shed money, he’s feels to be more valuable in the Padres lineup than he would be in a trade. Still, it’s worth mentioning as a potential option for a cash-strapped Padres organization.

Final Thoughts

The Padres have been a fascinating team to follow for the past couple of months.

After looking like one of the best teams in baseball and coming so close to knocking off their division rival Dodgers back in October, expectations were high for San Diego heading into the offseason.

But their free agent moves, or lack thereof, have been a pretty big disappointment thus far for the Padres’ fanbase.

While they were a finalist in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, they ultimately failed to land the big fish. They’ve lost a handful of key players to free agency, and many expected them to be a bit more involved this winter to get over the hill in 2025.

But financial hardship and unfortunate ownership drama have muddied the waters for the future of the Padres, and now A.J. Preller and company are looking to build a competitive roster with the cost constraints they’ve been given.

It might not look like the flashiest of moves, but the Pivetta addition is quite significant. Not only does the move make them more competitive with the roster as is, but it also gives them a whole lot more flexibility if they have more moves up their sleeves.