The Padres Have Been Awfully Quiet Compared to Winters Past

Although things have mostly been pretty quiet since the holidays, the hot stove was active for the few weeks before that. Top free agents signed and big trades were made with many of last year’s top teams wheeling and dealing.

Perhaps someone forgot to tell the San Diego Padres they could join the party.

Last year, under new manager Mike Shildt, the Padres bounced back from a season of mediocrity in 2023 to finish third in the NL with 93 wins and return to the postseason. They would lose in the NLDS to the eventual world champion Dodgers in five games.

The Padres have three players who received NL MVP votes in 2024 still on the team, two who received NL Cy Young votes, the runner-up for 2024 NL Rookie of the Year, and a former NL Manager of the Year.

Their core is as good as any team’s, and the Padres haven’t been afraid in recent years to add to their core in order to make a run at the playoffs.

So, why have the Padres been so quiet compared to winters past?

Since 2020, San Diego hasn’t had any problem spending to win, finishing in the top half of the league in total payroll each season according to Spotrac.

In 2022 and 2023, the Padres were actually in the top five in the league in total payroll at over $200 million each year before stepping back to only about $170 million last season (15th highest in MLB).

So far, per Spotrac, the Padres are projected to jump back up in total payroll for the 2025 season. Between guaranteed contracts and projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, they are currently projected for a payroll of more than $206 million.

That could at least explain some of the silence up to this point, as that’s not exactly a low number. Per Kevin Acee, Padres beat writer for The San Diego Union-Tribune, the team is “exploring possibilities that would lower their financial commitments while adding talent.”

And it’s not as though they don’t have roster issues to address. They lost a 139 wRC+ left fielder, Jurickson Profar, to free agency. The same goes for starting shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, a Gold Glover in 2023.

They also have Joe Musgrove’s rotation spot to sort out. The author of the first no-hitter in Padres history had a respectable 3.88 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 19 starts last season but will miss all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Yet despite all that, the Padres haven’t made any of those aforementioned financial subtractions to then relay into talent additions. While big name after big name has come off the board, San Diego has largely stayed put, outside of some minor league signings and handing utility man Tyler Wade a contract to cover his final arbitration year.

That’s a far cry from the Padres’ offseason activity of the last couple years.

One needn’t look far to find a time that the Padres were one of the most active teams of the offseason.

In December of 2023, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made a huge splash when he shipped outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees in return for a package that included Michael King and Kyle Higashioka (now with the Rangers).

And that wouldn’t be all for that offseason. Just before the 2024 season began, the Padres went out and got their ace when they traded for starter Dylan Cease from the White Sox.

In the offseason before that, they started things off with a bang when they signed current closer Robert Suarez to a five-year contract in November and then infielder Xander Bogaerts to a monster 11-year contract in December.

That alone would account for a successful offseason. And yet, a couple of months later, it was third baseman Manny Machado who signed his own 11-year deal with the Padres, an extension that would prevent him from opting out after the season.

Go back even further into previous offseasons and you’ll find plenty more examples of this team doing what they need to do in order to reinforce the roster, even when they already had quality pieces in place. That just makes this offseason’s silence even more surprising.

But, time isn’t up for the Padres to still make a splash this winter.

If the Padres decide to go the free agent route, which they might have to considering they don’t have much prospect capital to trade, there are plenty of options still out there that fit their needs. And maybe it actually makes sense they waited this long.

On the pitching front, there have already been some monster contracts handed out this offseason. Former Padres starter Blake Snell, former Padres prospect Max Fried, and most recently Corbin Burnes all got big money to pitch for their new teams.

The Padres are looking to replace their third starter for the year, so they may not have ever been looking to pay for one of the premium starters on the market, especially considering their current payroll situation. But also, they now know the going rate and can see which arms might be more within their price range.

Or, they could just be holding out to win the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. The 23-year-old pitching stud from Japan is currently evaluating his options and is expected to make his decision on where to sign later this month. The Padres should solidly be in the running to win his services.

There are also a ton of options out there to fill in on offense, which could include reunions with Profar and/or Kim. It wouldn’t be a surprise if many of these dominoes start to fall now that the new year is upon us. But again, they may need to drop someone from the current roster to make a move like that happen.

We may not be used to San Diego being this unhurried during the offseason, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t been the right play up to this point. Based on their past, there’s a good chance their next big move is right around the corner.