Losing Sasaki Sweepstakes Is a Gut Punch for Blue Jays and Padres

One of the most fascinating stories of the 2024-25 MLB offseason came to an end in the most predictable way: NPB superstar Roki Sasaki signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Still, the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres made things interesting until the end.

Early last week, Sasaki’s camp identified those three clubs as the finalists to sign the 23-year-old righty. The Padres, long seen as the co-favorites to land Sasaki, offered a Southern California alternative to the Dodgers.

The Blue Jays were more of a wild card. It wasn’t even clear they had met with Sasaki until relatively late in the game. Yet, the fact that Sasaki visited Toronto for a follow-up meeting with the organization certainly suggested the Blue Jays had a real shot at signing him.

Ultimately, however, neither the Padres nor the Blue Jays could pull off the upset, and the reigning World Series champions added yet another big name to their star-studded roster.

The bitter irony (for the Padres and Blue Jays, anyway) is that the Dodgers still would have been big winners of the offseason even if they lost the Sasaki sweepstakes.

As for Toronto and San Diego? Both teams have serious questions to answer and plenty of work to do to turn this winter around.

The Gut Punch for the Blue Jays

Editor’s note: This piece was published shortly before the Blue Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract.

Blue Jays batters had the lowest whiff rate in the American League last season. The front office, however, continues to swing and miss.

Sasaki represented their last chance to change that narrative this offseason. He might not have had the same impact as some of the other top free agents Toronto was in on, at least not right away, but his choosing the Blue Jays would have been a huge victory for the club.

After all, the Jays have been unable to land a superstar free agent the past two offseasons despite their willingness to spend heaps of cash. What a boost it would have been for team morale if they could have landed this highly coveted free agent for whom money wasn’t even a factor.

Now, the Blue Jays are left wanting once again.

To add insult to injury, the Jays took on $11 million of essentially dead money from the Guardians (Myles Straw’s contract) in exchange for more international bonus pool space. If they landed Sasaki, it would have been more than worth it. Instead, they ate that money for nothing.

That amount isn’t a major burden for Blue Jays ownership, but it will serve as an embarrassing reminder of another front office failure. It’s not a good look for president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, both of whom were already on thin ice with the fanbase.

So, what comes next?

It seems the most likely outcome is that the Blue Jays double down and end up overpaying for a flawed free agent just to give their fans something. They’ve already shown their hand, and agents know they’re desperate.

Perhaps the Blue Jays will be the only team willing to give Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman the long-term contracts they’re looking for. Perhaps they’ll be the only team willing to pay Jack Flaherty like an ace.

Or perhaps their major addition will end up being Anthony Santander. The 30-year-old is a fine player, but such a signing would be anticlimactic if it’s Toronto’s biggest move. What’s more, it could quickly become a disappointment if Santander can’t replicate his 44-homer performance from 2024.

Yet, what is the alternative?

The front office doesn’t seem to have any interest in entering a rebuild. However, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays team that took the field last season turning into a contender without some major upgrades.

And even if they find a way to field a competitive team without overpaying any free agents, it’s going to take a while to convince the fans to buy back in.

The Gut Punch for the Padres

The Padres have been the subject of plenty of rumors this offseason, but they’ve been surprisingly quiet when it comes to actual transactions. Their biggest additions have been 38-year-old Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract and Rule 5 draftee Juan Nuñez.

I get the feeling that POBO A.J. Preller was counting on signing Sasaki. Now that Sasaki is a Dodger, the Padres must pivot quickly to salvage their offseason.

The Padres were a strong team in 2024, but they have lost several key contributors to free agency, most notably Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, and Tanner Scott.

In total, the nine players they lost to free agency combined for just under 11 Wins Above Replacement last season, according to FanGraphs.

To make matters worse, All-Star starter Joe Musgrove will spend the entire 2025 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 19 starts with a 3.88 ERA and 1.4 fWAR in 2024.

That’s a lot of value to recoup, especially since Preller might not have much (if any) cash to spend. Reports from earlier in the offseason suggested he needed to get the payroll down from its current projected figure.

Without Sasaki, it’s hard to envision any way the Padres can cut payroll and somehow field a stronger team in 2025.

Even with Sasaki that would have been difficult, but at least one can guess what the Padres were thinking: trade Dylan Cease and his $13.75 million salary for a younger, cheaper bat and hope that Sasaki thrives immediately to replace Cease in the rotation.

Now what?

Cease remains Preller’s most tradable asset if the POBO needs significant payroll relief. Yet, without the star right-hander, the Padres will not have a postseason-caliber rotation. They already lack depth behind Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish.

The only free agent starter left on the market who could possibly match Cease’s production is Flaherty, and he’s going to command a much higher salary. The Padres are stuck.

The best way out of this mess is for Preller to convince ownership to keep the payroll up in 2025. Otherwise, it’s hard to picture the Padres competing with the Dodgers, the D-backs, or even the Giants.

If they don’t make any moves this winter, the Padres will have to rely heavily on bounce-back performances from players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado to seriously contend in 2025.

Meanwhile, if they have to sell off any key players to lower the payroll, the Padres won’t just be counting on bouncebacks – they’ll have to hope for a miracle.