Are the Padres Reverting Back to Their Small Market Ways?

Big free agent signings and blockbuster trades sporting electric neon pink and green jerseys in front of massive crowds have brough new life to baseball in San Diego. A general manager who is not afraid of risky trades and replenishes the farm through the draft has propelled the San Diego Padres to one of the best teams in baseball. However, the Padres we have grown to love might be headed back towards their small market ways.

From 2000 to 2019, the Padres lived in the bottom half, and often bottom third, of major league payrolls. The small market Padres flipped the script adding Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Juan Soto and other notable players pushing their payroll to the top 10, and later top five, in all of baseball.

Unchartered territory for a market the size of San Diego, but then owner Peter Seidler had dreams of bringing the city their first World Series championship. Seidler invested hundreds of millions of dollars into the Padres trying to reach the top of the mountain, unfortunately a goal he did not have the opportunity to experience.

Seidler, 63, passed away in November of 2023 after his battle with cancer, leaving the team to his family. What has ensued since Seidler’s death has been nothing short of a mess. Sheel Seidler, widow of Peter Seidler, has pursed legal action against other family members attempting to take control of the team. Who, and how, the team will be controlled is still up in the air, but early signs are ugly.

Offseason Trends

Regardless of success, the Padres have consistently been one of the most aggressive teams not only during the season, but throughout the offseason. San Diego, as a destination, was never the issue. Money was. After changed that course for the better part of five years, the Padres seem to be frozen in place.

As of the writing of this article, the Padres have not signed a single free agent to a major league contract. They missed on marquee international free agent Roki Sasaki and lost both Tanner Scott and Jurickson Profar. Not to mention their big acquisition’s from the last year, Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez, are rumored to potentially be on the move. Moves that benefit the bottom line, but not the team. A year after losing Soto.

When you consider how active the Padres were year in and year out, their silence is alarming. History tells us this is not a decision made by A.J. Preller, but from ownership. Preller has consistently made the risky move, traded to fill holes, signed the long term deal. Despite their aggressive moves in the past, the Padres are left with a lineup and bench that is far less than the recent standard.

We have not seen this level of talent, at this point in the offseason, on the Padres in some time. With the change in ownership apparently leading to a change in action, just how ugly can it get in San Diego? Will they try to move off other large contracts or piece together, cheaply, a quasi major league team around their established core?

Current Contracts

I’m not sure if there could be a worse time for a cash strapped group to take over a team. Typically, shredding salaries and tanking to the bottom of payroll is relatively easy and can be done quickly. However, the Padres are a completely different beast.

Due to Peter Seidler’s admirable and all out quest of winning the World Series, San Diego has a number of contracts on the books. Not only expensive from an aav value, but with term that carries long past players prime.

The Padres could pivot and try to move off a few of these contract in order to save money and, in theory, add more prospects. Some are moveable, but others are not. Trading a larger contract could come with a diminished return along with the Padres eating a portion of the money. Not to mention, the team would be worse if any of these players are actually dealt.

Trading players on expiring deals for prospects is pretty routine and almost always available. Moving those same players with hopes of getting back players who can help the roster immediately shrinks the pool and complicates deals. You likely have to settle for a return that is less ideal but does fill a hole to some capacity.

For example, Cease reaches free agency after this season. The Padres could move move Cease in order to avoid losing him in free agency and plug some holes along the way. The team acquiring Cease is going to be a contender and subtracting from their major league team might not make sense. San Diego would have to find a perfect fit and situation, which seems unlikely. So, do you keep him or deal for prospects?

What’s Next?

The next year or two will tell us a lot about how the Padres plan to operate for the foreseeable future. With several players on the wrong side of 30 and locked up for the foreseeable future, continuing to be aggressive and push toward a championship appears to be the best path forward. You already have a core, keep adding around it.

Of course, that path takes more money and potentially more trades. We still do not have enough information about the ownership change to say with certainty, but early signs are pointing to spending decreasing instead of increasing. Moving a few more tradable contracts, adding more to the farm system, and shuffling the deck is possible, but we have not seen it yet.

Now, at the end of January, what have the Padres done to give you faith in their future? Sure, one offseason is a small sample size, but going from uber aggressive to completely silent speaks volumes. Best case scenario? The current ownership issues and feuds are solved and whoever takes over honors Peter Seidler’s ultimate goal. Worst case? Issues continue, or the wrong party takes over, and the Padres slowly rot right back to the bottom of major league payrolls.

San Diego raising up over the past few years has been great for baseball. Not only has it given us a restored rivalry with the Dodgers, but has also proved that fans of small markets can support a team in the way large markets can. Kids in San Diego are invested in baseball to a degree we have not seen from the Padres.

The Padres have shown small market teams can rise above. Now, will they show us it is sustainable?