Jackson Merrill Should, But Won’t, Win Rookie of the Year

The National League Rookie of the Year race is shaping out to be one for the ages.

With so many young stars quickly ascending into stardom, there are a handful of players who are deserving of the award this season. Leading the way in odds is budding superstar Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and it’s easy to see why.

The 6-foot-6 hurler has simply dominated Major League Baseball ever since debuting back in early May. He’s a captivating talent with an electric arsenal who brings fans to the game, no matter what city the Pirates are playing in.

Few stars have a bigger draw to them right now than Skenes, and for that, he wholeheartedly deserves to headline the conversation regarding who should be the National League Rookie of the Year.

However, the conversation shouldn’t end there.

Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres is putting together an incredible rookie campaign himself, and he’s been an integral piece of a Padres team that is looking to make noise in the postseason.

He might not be as big of a name as Skenes, thus hurting his odds to take home the hardware, but Merrill is compiling perhaps the strongest argument of all the candidates to be the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year.

Stats updated prior to games on August 15.

Jackson Merrill’s Rookie of the Year Case

Midway through August, Jackson Merrill leads all rookies in Major League Baseball in fWAR at 3.4. After cracking San Diego’s Opening Day roster as a 20-year-old, Merrill has been extremely available all season long, playing in 118 games to this point, which is the most among all rookies.

Merrill’s talent has been on full display through the first five months of his major league career. Not only has his hit tool translated to the big leagues, but he’s also generating much more power as well.

On top of his offensive strides, he’s also been a valuable defender in center field, and he’s made his presence felt on the base paths. His ability to contribute in so many facets of the game is what’s made him such an important piece of the Padres’ success this season.

Starting with his offensive production, Merrill is near the top of the National League in several different metrics. He leads all National League rookies in hits with 120, and he has the second-highest batting average at .288. His run production has been second-to-none this season, as he leads all major league rookies in RBIs with 66.

Part of what has made him such a threat at the plate is his green-light mentality. Merrill is a free swinger at the plate and demonstrates an aggressive approach, sporting the 10th-highest swing rate in all of baseball at 56.4%.

Sometimes his aggressiveness is his shortcoming, as his 35.6% chase rate has led to a walk rate under five percent, thus bringing down his on-base percentage.

However, despite his frequent swinging, Merrill has done an excellent job of translating his above average hit tool to the major league level.

Merrill is sporting an in-zone contact rate of 85.8%, which is well above the league average mark of 82% and the highest among NL rookies.

Likewise, he has an overall whiff rate that is in the 73rd percentile (20.6%), according to Baseball Savant, and it’s helped him minimize the strikeout totals to this point. He has a strikeout rate of just 18.4%, which is impressive for a player sporting such high chase and swing rates.

Yet, Merrill’s impressive bat-to-ball skills have allowed him to do plenty of damage in the contact department. It’s encouraging to see him be able to translate those skills that were on display as he climbed through the minor leagues to the major league level.

However, it’s been Merrill’s ability to tap into more power at the big league level that is the most impressive aspect of his offensive production thus far. It’s one thing to maintain strong contact rates in the majors, but it’s rare to see that also come with improved power metrics- especially at such a young age.

Merrill leads all major league rookies in total bases (200) and extra-base hits (41), and he’s near the top of the National League in several different metrics, including isolated power (ISO) and slugging percentage thanks to his ability to rack up those extra-base hits.

What’s more, this is some of the best power output we have seen from Merrill throughout his young professional career, and he’s improved his power production with each of his promotions.

Back in Single-A in 2022, Merrill posted an ISO south of .160 in his 45 games with the Storm.

Last season with High-A Fort Wayne, he had an ISO of .165 while slugging .444. Following his promotion to Double-A later in the year, Merrill ended his time with Double-A San Antonio with an ISO of .171 and a slugging percentage of .444.

Merrill’s power output has steadily improved as he climbed his way to the big leagues, and he’s brought his game to an entirely new level in his time in the majors.

Not only is it fascinating to see him continue to translate his raw power into game power at the highest level, but he’s made tangible improvements in that department all while skipping the Triple-A level entirely.

Merrill is generating some impressive quality of contact this season. He’s sporting a hard-hit rate of 43.6%, which is well-above league average (36.5%) and the second-highest hard-hit rate among National League rookies.

Likewise, his average exit velocity of 89.9 mph is the highest among NL rookies.

Merrill is also sporting a barrel rate of 9.9%, which is third among National League rookies. What’s more, he’s demonstrated his ability to drive the ball to all fields, as illustrated in his hits spray chart above. The combination of his strong contact and using all fields has led to some of the top expected statistics in the game.

Merrill has an expected batting average that is in the 95th percentile (.297); an expected slugging percentage that is in the 92nd percentile (.514); and an expected wOBA that is in the 87th percentile (.358).

It’s an overall well-rounded offensive profile, and his efficiency at the plate has played a huge role in the Padres having one of the top offenses in the National League this season.

Finally, while his flashy offensive totals are what eyes draw to when casting votes, Merrill is also capable of making some spectacular plays in center field, such as the one highlighted in the post above.

In addition to playing strong defense, he’s managed to rack up 13 stolen bases as well – a stat that still holds value when considering Rookie of the Year candidates.

All in all, Merrill’s ability to contribute in so many different areas of the game is what separates him from the pack. He’s hitting for power, he’s posting some impressive contact metrics, and he’s making his presence felt both in the field and in the base paths.

Jackson Merrill’s Value to the San Diego Padres

Not only has Merrill been one of baseball’s top offensive rookies this season, but he’s been one of the most valuable assets on a San Diego Padres team that is in the thick of a postseason race.

When comparing potential Rookie of the Year candidates, being an integral part of a postseason team could make a difference when all is said and done.

Simply put, Merrill has been one of the most valuable hitters for the Padres all season long. Whether it’s the accumulation stats or his advanced metrics, Merrill is near the top in many of the categories highlighted in the table above.

As alluded to earlier, his everyday availability in the lineup carries enormous value for San Diego, especially considering the injuries they’ve been delt this season.

With Xander Bogaerts missing nearly two months of the season with a fractured shoulder, and Fernando Tatis Jr. being sidelined since late June with a femoral stress reaction, Merrill has filled their role in the batting order in a huge way to keep the offense rolling.

Even further, Merrill has been on fire since the All-Star break as well, slashing .329/.358/.659 for a team-leading 1.017 OPS and a 174 wRC+ over that stretch. That coming off the heels of a fantastic month of June in which Merrill hit .320 with a .996 OPS and nine homers, he has really elevated his game since the month of May.

Since June 1st, no rookie has a higher fWAR than Merril (2.7). Likewise, Merrill leads NL rookies in wRC+ (148), OPS (.901), wOBA (.376), and RBIs (44) since that date. Not only has he been one of the best rookies over the past few months, but he’s been one of the best overall hitters in the National League, and he’s continuing to improve his game at just 21 years old.

Should Jackson Merrill Win Rookie of the Year?

There’s no denying that Jackson Merrill deserves to be one of the favorites for the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year. However, there’s a reason why Paul Skenes is a heavy favorite to win the award.

Pitching to a 2.25 ERA to go with a dazzling WHIP that sits at just 0.96, all while striking out 32.2% of batters faced is certainly going to grab all the attention, and rightfully so.

But here lies the issue in comparing players such as Skenes and Merrill. Being the star that he is, Skenes gets fans to turn on the TV to watch him throw, and that should certainly warrant Rookie of the Year votes.

However, while he’s not the marketable star that Skenes has been to this point, Merrill has been the most valuable rookie in the National League and has produced day-in and day-out all season long.

It further highlights how difficult it is to compare a pitcher who goes every fifth day to a center fielder who is in the lineup on a daily basis.

That being said, both players have played an enormous role with their respective ballclubs at two of the game’s most impactful positions.

It’s worth acknowledging that Skenes has been, without a doubt, baseball’s most dominant rookie pitcher, while Merrill has been the National League’s most valuable rookie position player.

Both of what Merrill is doing with the bat and what Skenes is doing on the mound deserves to be acknowledged, and the competition between the two is an indication that perhaps MLB should consider splitting the Rookie of the Year award into two categories- the best rookie hitter, and the best rookie pitcher- in an attempt to acknowledge two of the game’s brightest rising stars in each of their respective roles.

Nonetheless, while Skenes is more than deserving of the award and has an obvious case to be the favorite, Merrill has put together a tremendous rookie campaign himself, and there is a very legitimate argument to be made that he should be taking home the hardware come season’s end.