Hey Phillies Fans, Let’s Overreact to Taijuan Walker’s First Start!
We knew the Phillies might have a Taijuan Walker problem this season. But what if it could be a good kind of problem?
Taijuan Walker was terrific on Thursday. In his 2025 debut, he threw six scoreless innings on 74 pitches, striking out four and walking only one. He collected the win, his first since last May, as the Philadelphia Phillies completed a sweep of the Colorado Rockies.
Yes, it was just one game. Yes, he was facing the pitiful Rockies lineup. Still, Walker’s strong performance was encouraging.
This wasn’t just his first victory since May 11, 2024. It was his first quality start in that time. According to the version of Game Score available at FanGraphs, this was Walker’s third-best start in a Phillies uniform and his best since an eight-inning gem against the Athletics on June 16, 2023.
There’s only so much we can glean from one start. But the fact that Walker looked better in this one start than he did at any point last season is a great sign.
Even more encouraging were the numbers underlying his quality outing. Walker threw 60.8% of his pitches outside the strike zone, according to Baseball Savant. Yet, 63.5% of his pitches were strikes, and he only issued one walk. That’s because he induced chases on 40% of those pitches outside the zone. For context, his career chase rate is 27.6%.
Walker led with his slider against righties, throwing the new-look pitch 40.5% of the time against same-handed opponents. Meanwhile, against left-handed batters, he continued to lead with his splitter, as he has done in the past. However, he threw almost as many curveballs and cutters as he did splitters, and he only mixed in a handful of fastballs.
All told, he used his two breaking balls a combined 39.2% of the time. That’s one of the highest rates in any start of his career. He induced 11 of his 18 total chases with his breakers.
And Walker’s breaking balls weren’t his only pitches that looked promising. The average velocities on his four-seam fastball, sinker, and splitter were all about one mile per hour faster than they were at the beginning of last year.
That was great to see, because decreased velocity was one potential reason for his struggles last season. Velocity-wise, most of Walker’s pitches on Thursday looked a lot more like they did in 2023 than in ’24.
It’s far too soon to say if any of the things Walker is doing differently this season will work. Regardless, it’s gratifying to see so many adjustments to his approach. Simply put, the way he pitched last season wasn’t good enough. Something needed to change. And several things have.
Barring a setback for Ranger Suárez, who is rehabbing some lower back stiffness, Taijuan Walker won’t have a starting job much longer. Suárez is expected to return at some point this month, at which time he would bump Walker from the rotation.
When everyone is healthy, Walker is the sixth man on Philadelphia’s rotation depth chart, behind Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Súarez. Before long, he could fall to seventh, presuming Andrew Painter progresses on schedule.
That in and of itself isn’t an issue. Every team needs starting depth. The problem the Phillies could soon face is where to put Walker when they don’t need him in the rotation. It’s not like he’s a youngster they can option to Triple-A.
As for the bullpen, the Phillies already have a right-handed swingman, Joe Ross. Ross does not have Walker’s track record as a starter, but he has more relief experience and an arsenal that’s better suited to bullpen work than Walker’s is.
It doesn’t really make sense to carry both of them in the bullpen long-term. That’s probably what the Phillies will do, and it’s probably the right decision, but it’s not ideal.
Trading Walker is another possibility, but the Phillies would be hard-pressed to find a willing taker, given the two years and $36 million remaining on his contract.
That’s a fair price to pay if he keeps pitching like he did on Thursday, but he’ll need to make several more good starts before another team is willing to buy in on his bounce-back.
So, the Phillies have a Taijuan Walker problem. But we already knew they would. The only thing that might be changing is what kind of problem it is.
If Walker’s strong 2025 debut is any indication, perhaps the Phillies’ Taijuan Walker problem will turn out to be the best kind of problem to have: too much starting pitching.
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Leo Morgenstern is an editor for Just Baseball and a writer for FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Pitcher…