Another profitable day! It was a wild one that left me needing a shower. We took the under 7.5 in Phillies vs. Rockies, and it went well until the bullpens got involved. Luckily, it stayed under 7.5, finishing with a score of 5-1. We did lose on the over between the Twins and the White Sox. That game ended on seven runs, and we nearly got there in the bottom of the ninth. Thankfully, that was the more minor play, and we picked up 0.5 units of profit.

Today’s board is smaller, but I have one play showing enough value to warrant a unit wager. Let’s stay hot by watching the afternoon matchup between the Rockies and Phillies.

2025 Record: 9-3 (+5.49 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 1:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Rockies: Antonio Senzatela (0.00 ERA, 2.54 WHIP in 4.1 Innings)

Phillies: Taijuan Walker (First Start of 2025)

Due to Ranger Suarez starting the year on the IL and Andrew Painter not yet ready to contribute, the Phillies will have to go with Taijuan Walker on the mound.

Walker joined the Phillies after a solid 2022 campaign with the Mets, and in 2023, he was a fine pitcher. However, in 2024, things fell apart, pitching to a 7.10 ERA through 83 innings. He deserved every run, posting a 7.09 ERA, the fourth worst in baseball. He saw a drop in velocity, and the batters stopped swinging and missing. He finished last year in the first percentile in whiff rate and the third percentile in strikeout rate. For those confused about the percentile rankings, you want to be closer to 100… not three.

Taijuan Walker is here to make a spot start when the Phillies already won the series’ first two games. Walker will have plenty of help behind him after Zack Wheeler gobbled up seven innings, and the Phillies bullpen had a rest day before that. The only pitcher in the Phillies bullpen who’s not on a great rest schedule is Matt Strahm, after throwing 30 pitches yesterday.

In 2024, Taijuan Walker went under 4.5 strikeouts in ten of his 15 starts (67%). His performance worsened as the season went along, going under in seven of his last ten starts, including six of his previous seven. Over his last seven starts, he only averaged 2.7 strikeouts per game.

Among pitchers with at least 80 innings last season, he has the eighth lowest K/9 at 6.24. Pitchers in a similar spot last year were San Diego’s Randy Vasquez and Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter. Vasquez pitched well in his first game but only struck out three over six innings. Falter went six innings, allowing just two runs, and only struck out four. Those are different matchups, but a 4.5 line for Walker is too high.

It’s likely higher than it should be due to the matchup. The Rockies just struck out ten times against Zack Wheeler and seven times against Cristopher Sanchez. They strike out at a 31.8% rate against right-handers, the second-highest rate in baseball.

Let’s be fair to Colorado. Yes, they have a terrible lineup, but they’ve faced Zack Wheeler, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Ryan Pepiot. Three pitchers have some of the best strikeout stuff in the league, and Littell’s strikeout rate was nearly 7% higher than Walker’s last year.

Rockies’ bats have also seen Walker a few times. Over 38 PA against the Rockies’ current roster, they are hitting .400 against him with a 15.8% strikeout rate. I have faith the Rockies can get to Walker today, especially after his terrible showing during the spring.

We take results from a run prevention standpoint with a grain of salt, but I want to see some strikeout stuff in the spring. Walker only had eight strikeouts in 17 innings, walking six, and allowing six home runs.

I project Taijuan Walker to finish with 3.9 strikeouts, giving this play a 61.5% chance of going under 4.5 strikeouts. This would make the actual line closer to -160. I would take this up to -135; anything beyond that, cut the risk up to -145.

If you’re interested in getting my plays as soon as I bet them and the ability to talk about each play with me directly, join our Discord!